Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Prices
IEA Report: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Prices
Quote:
World demand for oil should continue to climb, despite the doubling of oil prices and weakening economic growth, according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency.
Moped and motorcycle riders waited at a Shanghai gas station Tuesday. China will account for a third of the increase in oil demand over the next five years, the International Energy Agency said.
That should mean tightening supplies, decreasing the odds that drivers will get much relief at the gasoline pump.
The Paris-based agency, which advises governments of the industrialized countries, predicted that oil consumption would decline slightly in the United States and other developed countries over the next couple of years. Americans, the report said, are beginning to drive more fuel-efficient vehicles and taking mass transit when it is available.
But the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
“The report is only further confirmation of the inability of global supply to catch up with rising demands,” said Chris Ruppel, an energy analyst at Execution, an institutional brokerage firm. “After five years of record increases in oil prices, producers are still unable to sufficiently expand output. It means we are in for rough times.”
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: IEA Report: Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pr
Hogan wrote:
So much for demand destruction. I think we're in trouble.
Big time:
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Last edited by Zardoz on Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: IEA Report: Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pr
Hogan wrote:
But the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
On Oct 27, 2005, I wrote the following:
Montequest wrote:
There are many in the camp of “demand destruction will push peak oil into the future,” allowing us more time to transition to renewables and unconventional fossil fuel sources. But will it? One only has to review the goings-on in China, and to a lesser degree, India, to get a sense of certitude that demand destruction may not curb over-all energy consumption at all, but merely slow it’s grow…and maybe not even that.
In light of this, I question whether demand destruction will push peak oil into the future, much less lower energy prices. I feel the case can be made that, short of a global war or a massive depression, increased demand for energy will exceed demand destruction due to price, resulting in a continued net increase in the demand for energy, primarily, oil.
Conclusion: In my opinion, the only thing that will lower net oil consumption is peak oil itself.
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
I remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.
Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up. _________________ Now why didn't I think of that?
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1927 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Hogan wrote:
I remember, MQ. You've been saying this all along.
Any drop in western consumption (US, Europe) will quickly be sucked up by rapidly expanding Asian and S. American economies. Their domestic consumption is soaring, despite prices. They got a taste of the good life, and won't easily give it up.
It's not so much a case of them and us. Rather its one of, what was trumpeted as the triumphalism of capitalism to all corners of the globe, now confronts us with its ultimate dilemma....resource constraints.
In a bid to preserve their privilege from the levelling hand of socialism, the owners of capital exceeded this planets resourcing capacities and will, ironically, be forced to endure compellingly swinging cuts to their wealth base or else face anniahilation. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1331 Location: Stalag 13
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
Just like you believe world oil and food production can increase infinitely?
Shoo, shoo. Go away. _________________ Now why didn't I think of that?
Last edited by Hogan on Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1927 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
I'm not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.
Try as we might like to wish away this problem by the use of meaningless labels, the sad fact of the matter is that a good many individuals more across this planet aspire after and are acquiring the very wherewithal you take for granted in the US than was the case in the days of the Cold War and newly independent Asian and Latin American colonies. I deliberatey exclude Africa from this equation as I am not entirely sure that it has freed itself from the bonds of its colonial ties. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5900 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:43 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
OilFinder2 wrote:
Well I'm glad you all agree that oil consumption can increase infinitely and that even Third Worlders (or their governments) can afford infinite oil price increases.
I guess you didn't even bother to read Monte Quest's post above:
Quote:
In my opinion, the only thing that will lower net oil consumption is peak oil itself.
_________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
World wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies. _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
americandream wrote:
I'm not entirely sure just what your notion of third world attitudes are, but I would hardldy rank the Chinese within the scope of what you have in mind.
Do you think the Chinese will be able to merrily increase their oil consumption at the same rate they are now if oil rises to $250/barrel, $400/barrel, or more? Or, will their governments continue to be able to subsidize oil prices at those levels?
Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?
Contrary to the beliefs of doomers, the Chinese aren't immune to the laws of economics.
Furthermore, since much of the Chinese economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, if the economies of the US and the rest of the West collapse due to high oil prices, the Chinese economy will eventually follow. And the rest of the world, too.
And once the entire world economy collapses due to high oil prices, demand for oil will plummet - and then so will the price. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5900 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: IEA: World Oil Demand Will Continue Growing, Despite Pri
SILENTTODD wrote:
World wide Demand Destruction will not occur until countries that subsidize the price (use) of gasoline (China, India, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ect, ect) allow it to be priced to world levels. It will come back to bite them in the butt, but not before it has decimated the American and possibly the European economies.
Not only is that not going to happen, but I think the gross amount of subsidies will actually increase as the price rises. That includes the US, where I expect some combination of a sort of fuel consumption tax cut, some kind of income tax credit or a kind of rebate to offset rising fuel and/or heating costs. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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