The PeakOil Rules of Engagement Planning Document

kochevnik · Guest

MORE IMPORTANTLY :

1) How will you determine when you (or your family/community member) are in danger ?

2) How will you determine when your stuff is in danger ?

3) How will YOU respond to #1 & #2 above ?

In other words, please provide us with your ...

Peak Oil Crisis Rules of Engagement

I think this is a serious topic which deserves a great deal of thought and I have NEVER seen it addressed well. I think most people here tend to think in very concrete terms and tend to overlook the obvious.

Yeah, 3 bearded guys in leather race onto your property on choppers, firing their guns in the air, chances are they aren't from FEMA, ready to lend you a hand ... Rolling Eyes

:D

Defense in that situation is a no-brainer for sure.

However, suppose a pregnant woman with two small children comes up your driveway and cries out for help/food and refuses to go away.

Are YOU, PERSONALLY gonna pick up that real cool gun and shoot her ? And then what will you do with the kids ? You gonna shoot them too ? (If you said yes, either you're a comlplete and total liar (even to yourself) or you're a psychopath).

So, your middle class sensibilities get the best of you and you step outside to talk to her, and BLAM, you're nailed in the head by her boyfriend and brother-in-law shooting from the ditch.

Suppose you find the pregnant woman rooting around in your garden ? You gonna shoot her ? Suppose you chase her off ... how long do you think it will be before she comes back. And then ? What ?

Gonna shoot people who steal potatoes ? How many ? Does stealing 10 potatoes get a person shot or is stealing 3 potatoes enough to get plugged ?

Suppose you shoot them ... and they don't die (this ain't the movies kids) ... suppose they just lie there and scream and cry for help ? Going to feel like Mr. Big Shot then, right ?

What if some people in your family or community want to help and others want to shoot first and ask questions later ? Which decision gets made ?

And just exactly how do you think you be able to plant that garden or gather wood or water without exposing yourself or your family/community members in one way or another. Your wife is in the garden, and you're a 150 yards away chopping wood and the kids are in the barn doing chores ... when a man, a woman and 2 very little kids stagger out of the woods between you and the wife. How do you react please ? Help them, shoot them, try to shoo them away ? What if they refuse to go ? What if you can't shoot them, but they are bigger and stronger than you ? What if right behin d them are 50 of their closest friends and relatives ?

Even if you were to take the concealment method to the furthest of extremes, sooner of later someone is gonna come up your driveway, or out of the woods, or down the stream that runs on the north end of your property and they are gonna try to TAKE YOUR STUFF, or maybe not ... maybe they just want to camp on your land. You still gonna shoot first, Rambo ?

I am as full of the macho testosterone crap as anyone, but I don't see any CLEAR answers to these situations, and all of the chatter I have EVER seen on this topic is simplistic and full of false bravado, both of which will get someone killed just as fast as misjudging any of the aforementioned scenarios.

So, please, all you would-be PeakOil SURVIVORS, PLEASE tell me your own, personal, well-thought-out

Peak Oil Crisis Rules of Engagement

... because I'm having one hell of a time formulating mine.

Sad

kochevnik

jato · Posted: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:47 pm Post subject:

gg3 · Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:11 am Post subject:

Note: this stuff is my personal opinion, not speaking for our community planning group.

Interesting stuff, Kochevnik, I like the way you parse these problems (what's your background?).

Okay, take your hypothetical risk scenario: woman with two children approach asking for help; possibility of armed accomplices; questions about carrying capacity. And, for the heck of it, we'll also address the "clearly identifyable baddies" scenario.

Start by going back to first-causes, and assuming your situation is a small rural intentional community (IC) in a sparsely-populated rural county.

First, intelligent community planning leaves open spare carrying capacity for the potential of adding members later. If you can support 100 members, perhaps you stop adding members at 60, and leave 40 slots open for "later." (You never know when your retired parents are going to get sick of ongoing power failures at their condo in Florida, and ask to move in with you.)

Second, you're not in a vacuum, you have neighbors, and we'll make the upside assumption that those are friendly or at least non-hostile. (Conversely, the downside opposite is self-extinguishing: If you're surrounded by intrinsically hostile neighbors, you're already screwed, game over sooner or later, you lose.) If your IC is still alive, the upside assumption of friendly neighbors has held up, so we'll use it.

Now a downside assumption: that local law enforcement and justice have become nonexistent (police & judges etc. have moved out of the area to live with relatives elsewhere, and there is not a local lockup to use for prisoners), so you're in a lawless zone, in an unincorporated area with no municipal government. You and your neighbors have been reconstituting a common defense, there are assigned tasks and roles for each member including 1-AOs (conscientious objectors to combat duty who will accept noncombat roles), and you've got some reasonable practice.

Now a mid-scale assumption: that there is still some trade occurring via a town 20 miles away, and members of your IC make a weekly trip there for exchange of goods via some kind of market.

Okay....

First of all, the probability that *your* IC is the *first case* of someone in your area encountering any given risk/threat, is exceptionally low. In all probability someone else somewhere nearby has encountered the situation before you have. The key here is to learn from others' experiences rather than duplicating their mistakes.

Whatever local news is going around will be subjects of chatter in the market in town (which after all is a meeting place for people from a wide area, and in previous visits you've kept note of where they come from, so you know the effective area of coverage). So when your members are in town on the weekly trade run, they should be keeping their ears open for information of all kinds, and if an opportunity or a threat comes up, get specifics.

With a bit of training, a normally intelligent person can gather a lot of information in detail. There's no need to be covert about this, in fact it's best to be open: I'm from the XYZ community, we'd like to know about these things so we can (for example) deal with strangers fairly. (Note importance of the word "fairly.") Make clear that you have common ground together in addressing potential risk and opportunity scenarios. Chances are if you have been a source of good intel to others ("The folks from XYZ community always seem to be so well-informed!"), they will reciprocate. Reciprocity is good, it's a civilized value.

So, you and your cohorts are talking to people and, if the topic is a potential threat or opportunity, taking notes. If it's a potential threat, you get home and go talk to the person who's in charge of community safety & defense.

(Aside: in my opinion, the way I'd structure the community safety & defense entity would follow conventional American practices: you have an elected civilian government e.g. your community's Board of Directors and general manager, you have a volunteer defense/safety organization headed up by qualified experts (think of a volunteer fire department: most of the jobs are very part-time except when there's a fire), and the latter is subordinate to the policy decisions of the former.)

Now if your community safety & defense committee has been doing its job, it will have come up with a decent number of potential scenarios and methods of response, having thought most of this out ahead of time, and practiced as many scenarios as possible on regular training days. (For example, "today we do the Stranger Drill, everyone go to your stations and wait...") This way, when a situation arises, you pick the nearest scenario: most of the responses to it are known & rehearsed, and only some adjustments are needed to deal with the actual present circumstances.

You'll have at least two, preferably three or four, people who are trained to do analysis. They look at what other members bring in from the field and assess if/what response is needed. If a threat appears likely, they pass it up to the safety/defense committee which in turn informs your entire community, and possibly sends it along to neighbors and meets with them to coordinate responses.

So now, let's assume that your neighborhood (your IC and the families and ICs around you) have decided which set of contingency plans apply here, and how to modify them to suit the immediate need; and they have put those plans into effect. Continued, next posting....

Barbara · Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:30 am Post subject:

This "Peak Oil rules of engagement" is very funny! Laughing

Anyway, since I don't know where I'll be (farm? suburb house?) and subsequently what I'll own, I can't answer properly.
My general view is the following:
- if they are small/unarmed/young etc. I'll share what I can, no share if I'm already starving;
-if they are big/armed/many, I'll surrender and give everything away in order to save mine and my loved ones life. I think there's no way for a single family to win against 5 armed big men, not even with guns or rifles, unless I own a tank (which need a lot of oil to run! LOL).
_________________
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--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.

gg3 · Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2004 5:53 am Post subject:

Okay, so now let's assume you've heard about apparent refugees, there is a question about robbers associated with some of them, and your safety & defense committee has decided it's prudent to activate the Stranger Scenario. They've alerted the community, called up a meeting including the neighbors, and everyone knows what their role is and gets to it.

If you're in an area where hostiles are expected (i.e. just off a freeway or rail line), you might want to have some of the following in place at all times. In less dangerous areas, you can activate it intermittently based on information recieved.

Each farm or community along the main road has someone sitting at an advantageous position near the main road, with binoculars (and at night, nightvision goggles), a rifle, and a telephone (if your community has local trade relations with mine, you'll have telephones, if not, get them anyway:-). Someone else, possibly your regular switchboard operator, possibly someone trained as an intercept operator, is monitoring a set of radio receivers. Someone else is also up in the forest fire watch tower, also equipped with binoculars, nightvision goggles, rifle, and telephone; they can see your entire perimeter. (If you have enough people, these guard duty stations are staffed with crews of two, with replacement crews on 12-hour shifts, to keep each other awake and cross-check observations. "Look, I see an intruder!" "No, that's a bear." "No it's not, it's a robber in a bear costume." "It's a bear, I just saw it poop next to the trail." Oh, okay":-).

At some point, someone sees what looks like refugees. They phone in their sighting, and word goes out to the neighbors up and down the road.

Version #1: No threat.

Your watch-crew sees a woman and two kids, and that's all. Hears them talking, can't make out the words, but the tone is innocent. Calls in the observation, and word goes out, including up and down the road to the neighbors. None of the neighbors have reported anything suspicious, and this information is relayed back to your watch crew. Meanwhile, you send out two or more people as greeters (one for each refugee who's old enough to speak fluently), they carry two shotguns between them as a matter of routine.

Meanwhile the watch crew has their rifles ready just in case.

Your greeters approach the gate and say "Hello!, my name is (whatever) and this is (whatever), who are you?"

The refugees introduce themselves, then you tell them they're on safe ground, then check them for weapons and ask to speak with each one privately. One greeter per refugee, arranged spatially so they can't see each other and can't hear each other. Ask each a standard list of questions, and then confer privately to compare notes. Responses that sound rehearsed or are inconsistent, are an indication of trouble, i.e. potential "spies" scouting for a later robbery. Tell them you're a poor family, you work for others to earn your daily bread; give them a bit of food, and send them along.

Another possibility: you have a rundown-looking but clean & safe place for them to spend the night, i.e. a tiny shack next to the road (with no view of the rest of the community, curved roads are your friend; but within view of your watch crew; with an outhouse, and a couple of bunk platforms. And wired for redundant surveillance (details omitted from publication as per my usual policy).

While they're spending the night in the little rundown shack, your watch crew is keeping an eye on the outside, and your intercept station is observing what's going on inside. If they're a problem, you'll know it. If they're innocent as they claim, you'll know it. Either way you can make an informed choice about what to do from there.

Version #2: Threat.

You get a call from the farm up the road, that they saw a group of people split up and move suspiciously, with the supposed refugees continuing down the road. Your switchboard relays this information to your watch crew. Simultaneously you send out a few more people, properly armed, to take up additional positions with appropriate views.

One of your watchers sees three men sneaking along the road and taking up positions with views of your gate. Then along come the refugees.

Now before anyone decides it's time to start shooting, consider the possibility that the three men are performing the same task as your watch crew: protecting their family members in the event you turn out to be barbarians yourselves. You don't want a bunch of noncombatant casualties and orphans on your conscience. This is where the practice routines come in.

Now at this point I'm outside of my skill-set, so I frankly don't have an answer for managing tactical operations at this stage. Do you announce to the hidden men that you have them covered? Probably not. Do you expose your greeter-crew to risk? Maybe; if your greeter crew have bulletproof gear on, you can have your watch crew keep their respective rifles aimed clearly at the guys hiding along the road. Then if the latter pull weapons and make hostile moves, *boom.* Self-defense, though risky. The law says you can't shoot unless you're clearly at risk for your lives, and even in a lawless zone, sticking to the rules upholds what remains of civilized values.

However, if you've run down the various scenarios and drilled until you can do it all in your sleep, you're prepared and have options.

Version #3: "Expanded horizons."

In this case, the group of neighbors along a stretch of public road simply close the road to passers-by, have a barricaded checkpoint at each end of the road, and have appropriately equipped & armed watch crews above & adjacent to the checkpoints as well as watching other avenues of entrance to the area. Post "road closed - washout" signs well before your checkpoints. Watch the behavior of those who pass beyond those signs, and call ahead to the checkpoint if something suspicious is observed. Once again, winding roads are your friend, particularly if you can look down on them from above.

This scenario is requires full-time defense crews. The upside is, if the task load is shared among many neighbors, the "overhead cost" per each neighbor or IC is reduced compared to the alternatives. Safety in numbers, and if baddies show up, you can deal with them well outside of yours & the neighbors' own properties.

The point of all this is, being well-organized and having good relations with neighbors, good communications, and good training is essential. Realistically most places won't ever have an intruder problem, or a suspicious refugee problem. Most places will have functional law enforcement and justice mechanisms in place, so you can capture intruders (rather than making a life/death decision) and turn them over to the authorities. But if you're in a place that turns into a lawless zone, then you have to reconstitute your own defense.

Keeping and bearing arms is only a small fraction of the bigger picture; it's like having a trowel, you still need stone, mortar, wheelbarrow, level, blueprint, etc., and the skills to use them to build a house that's truly worth living in.

kochevnik · Guest

First let me say THANK YOU, gg, for taking my post seriously and you have helped me clear up my thinking quite a bit on this matter. Your ideas were very very good and I hope you will pardon me for distilling them down to some topics for me to build a set of Peak Oil Rules of Engagement that both I and my future group members can agree on. I don't consider this document anything more than strategic high level thinking, but I think it is a very good start.

If I could distill these thoughts down to one statement, it would be (DUH !) ...

Boy Scout motto : Be Prepared

Furthermore ...

I think that the very best strategic principle to follow is ALTRUISM.
I think the very best tactical principle to follow is RECIPROCITY.

The PeakOil Rules of Engagement Planning Document

) Neighbors

Strategic : Keep in good standing with your neighbors before the Troubles begin. This means going further out of your way than you would otherwise do, lend a helping hand in several ways, something as simple as bring them a cake or pie, helping them do some manual labor, lending them some small tools, asking them about their life. In short be a neighbor in the old fashioned way. As time goes on, separate them out into keepers and losers, and apply the tactical reciprocity principle the closer you get to the Troubles. Have a Santa Claus list of who has been naughty and nice to guide your efforts. Consider knowledge of your neighbors one of the most important skills you can learn.

Tactical : Have a plan for gathering the 'good' neighbors together as an uber-group when the troubles hit. Buy communications devices, extra provisions and needed supplies (food, water, soap) etc. Keep them alive and they will help keep you alive. Develop a system of communications & secondary supplies (water filters, flashlights, small radios) which you can help them with should they come around to deciding they need them. Never push, let them make the initial overture. Make sure you have no BAD neighbors. Apathetic is not the same as BAD. If you have BAD neighbors, make sure they figure in your Scenario planning as Threat Level II or III below. Better yet ... move.

) Group Members

Strategic : Make sure you make provisions for more group members. Regardless of the size of your group (individual, family, enclave, community), if the going gets rough enough there will people who wish to join with you and vice versa. If a dentist comes walking down the road it will be a great help and luxury if you have the option of inviting him/her for provisional membershp. Poor planning negates many otherwise wonderful options.

Tactical : Have rules. Rules for duties, ruels for responsibilities, rules for leaving or joining the group. Make sure all rules have clearly stated consequences in your group. Make sure both (rules & consequnces) are fully debated and agreed upon by the entire group. If your group can't agree on a basic set of rules, then you are in the wrong group.

) WarGaming

Strategic : Brainstorm a HUGE list of possible scenarios & possible responses, defense & offense, man-made and results of nature and WRITE THEM DOWN. Once you have your lists, discuss and decide with all members of the group EXACTLY what procedures will be put in place to identify & respond to all dangerous situations which might arise in the future.

Tactical : Train. Train. Train. (and Train again) until the procedures and decision-making are second nature. Let people in your group volunteer for those duties which they feel most comfortable. For every Rambo you think you might need, there is room for a Florence Nightingale as well. Everyone in your group should know and practice their assigned responsibilities. Make sure to provide the material, equipment and supplies necessary for all group members to do their job well. Cross train people so that regardless of the situation, all essential responsibilities are covered.

) CCC (Command, Communications, Control)

Strategic : Make sure you have command, communications and control structures in place to support your potential responses. Even in as small a group as a family, people should know EXACTLY what responsbilities are whose and how those responsibilities are to be carried out. Even a family has a chain of command, even if it is not overtly acknowledged.

Tactical : Make sure you have either physical or 'virtual' LP/OP (listening/observation posts) all around your area. Any shortage in manpower can be made up through technology. Low-powered sensors (heat, visual, motion, etc.) could go a long way towards making even the smallest group more secure. Make sure you have a Communications/Command center outfitted with all that you need to cover the three C's in an emergency, even if all it is, is a desk in the basement of your house. You can't respond to ANYTHING if you're blind.

) Threat Assessment

Strategic : At this level, all threats may be divided into those you can choose to ignore and those which you must engage ... someone, someway, somehow has forced your hand in the matter. The group as a whole must decide AHEAD OF TIME EXACTLY how to determine threat levels and EXACTLY what the chosen response (or responses) will be (see WarGaming above). When a group of people are cruising up your driveway is NOT the time to be arguing about what your group should or should not be doing. That being said, all of the response below are based on either a voluntary or involuntary engagement.

) Tactical :

Class I = Probable Non-Threat
Develop a 'greeting' procedure (see WarGaming above). Personally I plan to keep all greetings at arm's length through the use of megaphones, intercoms, cameras etc. I can think of very few situations where it would be necessary or advisable to risk ANY member of my group. If necessary, make a Class I threat strip down and put on 'clean' clothes before physically approaching. If they aren't willing to accomodate our paranoia, then either they are up to no good or they don't 'really' need our help.

Responses to Class I Threats
) Shoo them away
) Feed them then shoo them away
) Negotiate a temporary work arrangement or trade (food for work) then feed them and shoo them away
) Negotiate a provisional membership in your group (see the dentist example in the Group section above) 'Watch' these people carefully (electronically if necessary) to ensure that they are to be trusted. If they can't then return to response 1 or 2 above. Smile

Above the Class I Threat Level is where the LEO (law enforcement officer) factor comes into play. If there is still viable law enforcement, then any actions other than clear, legalistic self-defense are very inadvisable. Even if YOU think it is self-defense, the LEO most likely will not. The group as a whole should make a conscious decision decide when exactly a LEO-less environment comes to exist.

If you are in a LEO-rich environment, then your only option is to retreat and defend only if the situation absolutely, clearly indicates self-defense is the only option. Remember, defense of property in the LEO world is NOT self-defense. The last thing you want is a group member in jail in the middle of the Troubles.

Class II = Probable Threat

This situation should quickly resolve itself into a Class I or a Class III situation and be handled accordingly. It is not against the rules to force the other party to show their hand ...

Class III = Definite Threat
If you're not willing to fight to win, then don't fight at all. Your group needs to decide how they stand on this issue BEFORE the MZB's show up. Our group plans on using heavy signage (Stop Here and Identify Yourself Now !, etc.) to get our point across. ANY Class III threat which ignores the signage is going to get hit as hard and as fast as is possible ...and we have absolutely NO plan on fighting fairly. It's not so important that you choose a particular course of action as it is that everyone knows and agrees with whatever plans you have decided AHEAD OF TIME. If fighting is not in your nature, then it shouldn't be part of your plans either.

Class IV = Major Threat
This includes large groups of MZB's or others who present a force which is too formidable (for any number of reasons) to engage. In this situation, there is only ONE rational course of action and that is and ORDERLY retreat. So, this better be included in every group's plans I think. This means, that no matter how strong your group feels it is, there should be a plan B (and a plan C, D & E if possible) which will let you run.

This concludes this Peak Oil public service anouncement Smile

I want to thank gg again for helping me clear my thinking on this subject. It's not something I or anyone else generally thinks of in 'normal' society, but I believe it is a skill to be learned, just like gardening or food storage or the raising of animals. It needs to studied, planned for and practiced like any other useful PeakOil skill.

Shocked

kochevnik

P.S. I told my wife I was writing a threat assessment post and when I asked her how a person should respond to a possible threat, her answer was ... you pee in your pants Smile

Very funny girl my wife Smile

Pops · Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2004 11:55 pm Post subject:

Looks interesting.
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buster · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 144

My own plan is to be a mensch, and to be very cautious of people who have formulated "rules of engagement."
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Barbara · Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 5:59 am Post subject:

Same old story: while men play wargames, women do all the hard work! Laughing

_________________
**no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.

Viper · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 05, 2004 Posts: 204 Location: MO

The answer to all of the above for me comes from answering the following.

1. How lawless has the world become?

2. How hungry am I?

Since I would have no intention to "rebuild" society, bring back the arts, or anything on that scale, and since I do not intend to become some sort of farmer, I guess if the answers to the questions are no law, and very hungry then the answer to all of the above is "dinner is served".

If the law still exists, then its not my problem.

If I am not hungry, then these people are more likly a danger than a benifit. Run away.

PonyBoy78 · Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:40 pm Post subject: Great post!

I've wondered about this also. The idea of hungry hordes from the cities scares the daylights outta me. Should I grab an uzi and begin to mow them down? Should I set booby-traps around my property? Should I try to limit access to my property physically, with walls, moats, drawbridges, electric fences, barricades, etc?

I think prevention will be key. Living far, far away from major population centers will be a huge advantage. If gasoline is in short supply, surely those in automobiles will be fewer, and those on foot will not get very far, right?

I really, really fear a hard crash. It's probably one of my bigger fears in all of this, since I'm not much of a tough Rambo-like guy. A crash where cities' populations decide to flee to the countryside over a matter of days. I honestly don't know what to do, where to begin thinking about such scenarios. Maybe it's time to start..

Pops · Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 10:26 pm Post subject:

Look the topic this one originated: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1120.html

About the how’s and whys of passive (or at least non-lethal) defense (trying to keep the Rambo thoughts separate).
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buster · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 144

I wonder...if the run-up to peak takes a few years instead of a few months, will survival bunkers become as commonplace as 'fallout shelters" were back in the 1950s? There may be an investment angle here...

Look for my new book, "How to Reap Big Profits from the Coming Peak-Oil Die-Off"
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gg3 · Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2004 6:39 am Post subject:

Buster, you might have a point there. In any case, I'm planning to earn my fair share building telecommute infrastructure that takes commuter cars off the road voluntarily.

Kochevnik, very interesting, we tend to think similarly; see more below.

PonyBoy, and everyone else, remember the inverse square law: radiated energy decreases, in a mathematically predictable manner, the further you get from its source. Works in physics, works with mobs. Again for emphasis, you don't have to worry about this, urban refugees will spread out in an advancing wavefront that dilutes their density as they go. You can be surprisingly close to a city and get nothing more than a few stragglers.

Back to intel & counterintel: Useful rule: Everything is Information. The following is not intended to be overly critical, just pointing out possible holes & how to plug 'em.

You have a drawbridge or sound system or other visible technology at your entrance gate? Hmm! must be a well-organized functioning enclave, probably have goodies for the baddies to steal.

You have barbed wire or similar physical barriers beyond the level of a slightly worn-looking (but secretly strong) fence and gate? Same conclusion. You drive up in a vehicle? Same.

You use a megaphone or other sound system? I just figured out where your observation post is located, and/or where your wires are strung, and if you got wires, you got other stuff the baddies want.

You use radios? My intercept operator is plotting your location and course on a computer screen, as well as hearing your every word.

Notice that my entire setup has nothing visible except a little shed near the entrance that's been (apparently) hastily converted to a crude but clean guest shack; and a gate. And a few guys with the understandable firearms who can say they're out hunting for dinner and ran into the hypothetical intruders by coincidence. Maybe they have heavy coats on (concealing their Kevlars).

Now if you want to have any visible technology at all, use an old magneto wall telephone in a booth by the gate (the booth also equipped with concealed redundant surveillance), with an obviously hand-painted sign saying "All visitors must call in, otherwise you're trespassing and may be shot." And the instruction on the phone, "lift receiver, turn crank briskly, wait for answer." This is "crude" enough to not give away how well equipped you really are. And this should ring through to your switchboard, but be sure to set things up such that the caller can't hear the telltale noises of computers and other hightech in the background at your switchboard.

If you invite a category 1 (probable nonhostile) into your enclave, and they turn out to be a spy, you've lost. Hence the guest shack with redundant surveillance. You can't take chances.

What you can do is, tell the people to stay in the shack and you'll be back the next morning to bring them some food. Now that I think of it, having a windup alarm clock in the shack is a good idea. Wind it up, set it to match your wristwatch, and tell them exactly when you're coming back.

And now that I think of it, your guards on the hillside should know how to use bird calls or other animal noises as a signaling system. Remember, radio is risk. So the next morning, you get the intel report from the intercept operator before you head out to offer these visitors some breakfast. Then while you're walking down the road, you & your fellow crew members are talking casually. When you get within audio range of your hillside watchers, the make a bird noise as per a pre-arranged code.

Reason for the latter is, a) lets you know the watchers are watching, and b) in the event there was any juicy last-minute chatter picked up from the shack. Let's say your visitors know you'll be there at 10:00AM with food. Let's say at 9:45am while you're walking down the road, your intercept operator hears them say "okay, when he gets in here, you trip him and I'll take his gun..." Your intercept operator relays that tidbit to your watch crew on the hill, who signal to you with a bird call, and you acknowledge by making some other pre-arranged noise.

Now as you get to the cabin, you can invite the "visitors" to come outside, hand them some food, and shoo them away. Thereby thwarting their plan without letting them know what you know. Or you can say, "Y'know, something about you tells me you're trouble. I think you should take your food and go, and don't come back this way if you know what's good for you. We'll watch as you go down the road there..."

As for the food to bring, a half-loaf of bread and some local fruit that's a bit bruised but not wormy, and a bottle of water, all very clean and safe, and you can even offer to take a bite to prove it's safe to eat. But it will also give the impression that you ain't got much pickins' for them and theirs.

Alternately, if your intercept operator picks up only good (innocent) stuff, and your watch-crew makes the "A-OK" bird-whistle, then maybe just maybe you invite them in for a while. But they should not be given access to anything that suggests how well prepared you are. Get an opsec freak to go over your plan and your place with a fine-toothed comb so that the surface impression guests get is of a poor community that's barely getting by. Even something as innocent as a nice piece of equipment (e.g. a tractor) sitting in a visible place, gives away information. You would be shocked at what can be inferred from seemingly innocuous observations.

Re. your categories &c.:

I really like your general principle "Strategic altruism, tactical reciprocity." That suggests you're thinking about this stuff in depth, to the point where you can condense it to something as tightly worded as that. I think I might send you email via private message on this board...

Re. lending tools to neighbors:

I'd suggest not lending tools, but instead offer to come over and perform the labor with your own tools. Tools are too easily damaged by unintentional misuse. For example failing to scrub out your concrete mixer thoroughly, every half hour during use, can quickly lead to mortar buildup that subtly destroys the mixing efficiency. One careless cut with a power saw can cause the blade to heat up to the point where it goes dull, and in some cases won't ever hold a good edge again. Drill bits are notoriously easy to break. Chisels, and chisel-like tools including wood planes, can get dulled or worse, the blades can get chipped. Etc.

The way to deal with that, without being rude, is to just say "We'd gladly come over and help you build your (whatever), but we have a rule that we're not allowed to lend tools by themselves." If you "have a rule," then you're only "following the rule," which shouldn't be taken as an affront, and in any case you're offering to do some labor. Which also means you have more contact with the folks who are asking (because you'll be at their place doing the work), and that helps to build mutual familiarity which is a good thing.

I would suggest a slight variation on tactical reciprocity with neighbors. If someone lets you down once, tell them you "feel like you were let down" or "it hurt your feelings" or something like that, and give them a second chance (as long as their failure didn't cause you significant harm). Every dog should get one bite as long as it doesn't break the skin. If they screw up the second chance, you can go from "friendly" to "cordial," rather than letting them know they're on your sh*t list. And keep the channels open in case they decide to make amends.

Speaking of bad neighbors: Meth (speed) labs. From what I read, those are bad bad bad, and the people who run them are ruthless. Speed is instant brain-rot in a pill, and it very quickly causes paranoid psychotic reactions. That means freaked-out neighbors who are convinced you're beaming a radio station into their tooth fillings which is causing them to lose their sexual stamina (actually the latter is due to the speed) and they oughta shoot you for making their lives miserable. You do not want that anywhere near you. Pre-emptive strike is a justifyable tactic if you smell the telltale chemicals in the air (I'm not sure what they are but I hear they have a very specific smell; ask a cop for details).

Chain of command: If it's implicit (as in most families), make it explicit. Implicit is *dangerous*, because people's ideas may differ and they don't know it, and that leads to conflicts when you need choreography. Create a system of job titles, rank titles, and MOS designators, and make sure everyone knows what they mean and how they work. If you have ex-military in your group and they don't object, you can ask to adopt the system from their branch of service and have them teach it to you. Otherwise use terms from team sports or something else that is clearly understood. Establish an explicit means by which an individual's titles and duties can be altered as they develop skills.

Re. scenarios: But be sure that you don't get caught up in the scenario generating process and get all paranoid. You would be surprised at how easy it is to convince yourself that a scenario is an immanent reality. Therefore you need to cultivate a detached attitude when doing this. Practicing mindfulness and concentrative meditation helps here, as it does in many other areas (details on request), and those exercises do not conflict with religious beliefs or practices any more than doing pushups and situps.

Good reminder about the comms center being in your basement. Reinforced concrete is your friend:-). If you're doing radio intercept, you need antennae, and these should be concealed, for instance in the attic of a wood-framed house with non-absorptive shingles. Most efficient case is to co-locate all of your comms into one building (so you can scale back your staffing to one person on overnight shifts if needed), but that also makes it a bit of a tasty target, so it should be concealed or disguised.

If you have local LEOs and they know you well enough, try to arrange a system whereby they can tell you how quickly they'll be on site to respond to a call. For instance, you call in an incident, their dispatcher should be able to say how many minutes until they arrive, and that information should be reliable. Then you can plan your holding-action tactics accordingly.

Good point about orderly retreat. Frankly I had never considered the option, which does not make me brave, it points to a strategic flaw in my planning. However you need a place to retreat *to,* i.e. a neighbor's property or something of that kind, where you'll be welcomed.

One thing that could be useful is for each neighbor in an organized group of neighbors, to have built a set of bunk platforms somewhere on their property, so people who are stuck in retreat mode have at least got places to sleep. Those platforms can be used for storage of stuff in boxes when not needed for emergency sleeping areas.

Strictly speaking, I don't think things are going to get so bad that we all have to be taking all of these steps. But most of them can be taken with little extra effort and only slight design changes in your infrastructure, and the wargame exercises could even become a form of "entertainment," instead of sitting home and playing video games:-). In fact most traditional games (both outdoors and stuff like chess) had "dual use" purposes, in teaching skills that would be useful in a practical sense. Chess teaches strategic thinking, hide-and-seek is good for recon, baseball is good for ballistics, "scavenger hunts" and Easter-egg hunts are a throwback to the "gatherer" part of hunter-gatherer, etc.

I would be very interested in hearing more about your group and its plans.

gg3 · Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2004 7:13 am Post subject:

Yo, Kochevnik, get a userID on the system here. It would be interesting to discuss some of these ideas further via email/PM. At the moment, I get a "no such user," which correlates with "guest."