Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
More exports that seems like a real recovery. But that US people bought more durable goods, whatever it is (??hoes, TV) that does not sound good, that means even more depth, as incomes are falling. What did they buy?
Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, bookings rose 2 percent, the most this year, after dropping 0.5 percent a month earlier.
The gains reflected increasing demand for machinery, metals, autos and defense gear.
Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of future business investment, climbed 1.4 percent after a 0.1 percent decrease in May. Shipments of those items, which is a figure used in calculating gross domestic product, increased 0.7 percent following a 0.2 percent gain.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1719 Location: Australia
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:38 pm Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
Meanwhile Jim Sinclair has started shouting that the situation is at a breaking point and the only way to buy more time now is if a bulk of the analysts are clueless to how big the damage is.
Quote:
A serious event occurred today. This event was the very public international recognition of more off balance sheet so called “assets” revealed as having little, if any, value. This event is arguably the most serious financial upset ever. If you have not protected yourself, it is getting very late - maybe too late.
Your best hope is that this event is so complex that the herd of self anointed experts has no clue what that vehicle is, how large it is and therefore the profound meaning it has. Gold, serious junior gold shares (the only seriously underpriced and therefore real value in equities) and non-dollar short term federal currency instruments are your sanctuary. You better get there, and get there FAST!
Quote:
The meaning of this is not only are Freddie and Fannie’s troubles much costlier than realized, but now there is an entirely new definition of market-less financial entities with off balance sheet assets that undermine primarily the US and now international banking systems. Conduit mortgage OTC derivatives will have to be marked down now that the sun is shining on them.
The U.S. mortgage industry transformed itself in a way that has opened dangerous SIV sub prime real estate conduits to global capital markets. A conduit loan is priced by swaps and swap spreads, thereby becoming a package of various OTC derivatives generally derived from a formula that would make Einstein look like a kindergarten mathematician.
By turning mortgages into securities, lenders created vast distances between homeowners and their mortgage holders, who can be anywhere in the world such as Australia.
US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. Write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are in the cards.
That guarantees the USDX at .6200 and more likely at .5200. That guarantees gold to reach at least $1650 much sooner than I anticipated.
This strongly suggests that my estimate of $1650 is significantly below the price of gold coming soon.
This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system.
The greatest economic crime ever committed is OTC derivatives. Those that proffered these will have killed more people than most wars.
This is it and it is NOW!
Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair
_________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
Boeing had 3 record (or near-record) years in a row from 2005-2007 for airplane orders. Each of the 3 years had over 1000 orders, and the orders will be placed as far out as 2015 (I think). Even if some of those orders get canceled, there should be a nice jump in exports (which are already booming, thanks to the low dollar) and probably industrial output. Many of these orders were for 787's, which will (finally) go into production next year. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
Jim Sinclair wrote:
This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system.
!
Sure thing Buck Rogers, just as soon as we stop spending more than we make, we'll get right on the return to the gold standard.
Gold will be confiscated (they will say, "taken from hoarders for the good of the country in exchange for Reserve Notes backed by the full faith and bullsh-t of the United States). The only question is . . .
when? _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 4:53 am Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
It took beef jerky going from $3.50 to $7.00, laundry detergent going from $6 to $14, ice cream going from $2.50 to $5, an artificial housing shortage throwing millions of people into the street, but we did it. Economic growth. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism.
Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 6:08 am Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
oilfinder, BOEING is just ONE business, not a whole economy. Maybe the Chinese spend more dollars.
But what are all this durable goods the US citizens bought? Or bought more? Shovels? TV sets? electronic toys? Sweaters?
Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
cloud, why on earth are the Americans buying MORE durable goods like fridges or cars, if they have yet too much depth? Do they think they will file bancruptcy anyway? Do they stock up in things they might not be able to buy later? It makes no sense to me.
Why did the dollar strengthen? Because more money will be printed due to Fannie And Freddy?
Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: US economy better than forcast
alokin wrote:
oilfinder, BOEING is just ONE business, not a whole economy. Maybe the Chinese spend more dollars.
I realize that, but at about $150 million a pop, those 3000+ Boeing orders will have an outsize influence on the US economy. That's something like $450 billion in business over the next several years, most of it exported. Not bad for one company.
alokin wrote:
But what are all this durable goods the US citizens bought? Or bought more? Shovels? TV sets? electronic toys? Sweaters?
The orders to US factories aren't necessarily for US consumption, some of it is exported, too.
At any rate, here is the answer to your question:
--> Marketwatch <--
Quote:
Much of the increase in June was defense-related. Defense orders rose 12%, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Total orders, excluding defense, were up only 0.1%.
Oh well, can't win 'em all.
Nevertheless . . .
Quote:
Details of durables report
Orders for primary metals rose 5.1% after falling 1.8%. Shipments rose 2.8% after 1.4%.
Orders for fabricated metals rose 1.7% after a 0.3% drop in May. Shipments rose 0.6% after a 0.4% fall.
Orders for electrical equipment rose 5.0% after 2.0%. Shipments fell 0.4% after a 0.4% gain.
Orders for machinery rose 2.3% after shrinking 3.7% in May. Shipments rose 2.4% after 0.1%.
Orders for transportation goods fell 2.6% after growing 1.9%. Shipments rose 1.4% after falling 3.8%.
Orders for computers equipment (excluding semiconductors) fell 1.1% after jumping 2.8%. Shipments (including semiconductors) fell 1.1% after rising 2.8%.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
