Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2005 7:56 am Post subject: Are people getting hysterical?
Are people getting hysterical about some of these issues? How this will play out will depend on cool heads. I’ve come up with a scenario, feel free to disagree and tell us all why you think I’m wrong. I think the timeline will be as follows.
Late 2005/2006 Oil shock causes dip in consumption and moves are made in several countries to move away from low efficiency cars. SUVs in the US are no longer considered desirable.
2007-2010 Run up to peak oil, nobody is quite sure when the peak is actually happening, but ever increasing oil prices mean a consumer push to efficiency and energy savings. However, much of this is offset by rising oil and car use in China and India. There will be least one more war to secure oil supplies.
2010 It becomes obvious to many economists and politicians that peak oil is now past. First world wide conference takes place involving national states on the issue of Peak oil. Climate change and Peak oil is number one issue in the west. Most airlines are in bankruptcy, especially in the US and Europe.
2011 US and UK economy in freefall. Consumer debt and high unemployment creates rapid recession and shrinking economy. Interest rates rise rapidly in these countries and less so throughout world. Households begin to sell unwanted or second cars and attempt to pay off debts. Riots in Several US and one British city take place, army sent to the streets. Governments in Europe and US meet in several emergency meetings as fuel protests bite hard into the economies of the west.
2012 New Tax Regime on cars and trucks. Second household cars taxed highly and vehicles under 30mpg banned from sale. New taxes on Airlines leave a handful in operation serving niche business markets. There is a major drop in Co2 emissions in this year throughout the western world. Growth in car use in India and China starts to level off.
2013 US signs CO2 treaty after flooding in some areas takes its toll. New Hydrocarbon treaty put in place throughout world. US announce plans to fund mega metro rail projects in several cities to meet Euro standards although many discussions take place on funding as country now in deep recession.
2014 Oil based cars now seen to be socially undesirable in large parts of Europe and SE UK. Long distance vacations are now seen as a thing of the past in Europe and the US, most holidays now take place within 500 miles. More high speed rail plans are announced, especially in the US and the new UK line starts operating first services to the Midlands. US style freight only railroads talked about due to rail freight congestion as road freight becomes far less competitive. Green party is now seen as 4th or 3rd party in Europe. More major drops in Co2 output and China start to rake back economic output.
2015 The year of green efficiency. Traditional farming courses now have big uptakes. Australia and Iceland become energy independent. Europe in talks with African states to extract solar power. Big boom in domestic wind and solar energy throughout world although there are many debates about Nuclear power as gas prices go through the roof.
2016 Horse makes a return in some rural US areas especially the south. Road congestion no longer seen as a problem in the world as car use begins to drops off more and more. Some states like Iceland and Australia start to turn to the hydrogen economy. However, most of the world acknowledges large scale conversion is unworkable so invests in heavy mass transit schemes with new attractive tax system. Drop in rural living as people start moving back to the towns. Farming becomes very important in many rural areas of the US and Europe. Remaining trucks and necessary vehicles are running on large biodiesel /oil mix. New laws giving fuel priority to railroads, buses and trucks first.
2017 Cars are now the domain of the middle and upper classes. Almost all gadgets, especially computers, have plug in or built in PV panels. 95% of computer sales are portable with low power use computers by far the most popular. New styles of clothes with solar collecting properties are in high fashion powering MP3 players, mobile phones and other gadgets. Small families are now seen as highly fashionable, increasing numbers of couples choose not to have children. Bio diesel very popular in farming and wind and solar power now account for 30% of domestic supplies in the US and Europe. Feeding energy back into the Grid is talked about socially in an almost ‘Keeping up with the Jones'’ fashion. A major regional airport closure scheme is announced in Europe and the UK.
2020 Cars and planes are seen as rich peoples' play things. Horses are seen as trendy in the US outside cities. Cycling becomes as popular in most European towns as Cambridge and Oxford is today. Some longer distance bus companies now in trouble as they are asked to pay large network costs that were previously free and paid for by car users, which are now far less.
2021 Schemes in Europe and US to covert trunk road network to passenger and freight railroads with driverless electric trains. Parts of the M6 motorway in northern England set for closure as motorway is only used by less than 200 people per day. New High speed line is taking the strain in Britain.
2025 Railroads become dominant transport operators again. Sail boat and Sail holidays now popular. Renewable, coal and nuclear power now universal as gas shrinks away. Almost all the CO2 from coal stations pumping into oil wells and other disposal points. Horses make a big return to rural UK and Europe. All cars now electric, bio diesel or hydrogen in some parts of the world. Treaties limit conventional oil to non-transport uses only.
2030 New laws on buildings mean they must be power independent. Many new building styles spring up. Conventional oil is now only playing a role in medical, some industrial and some materials, however the end of oil is now at least 500 years in the future thanks to new lifestyles. DVDs, newspapers, CDs are now a thing of the past and all music is delivered over the net and TV. Portable screens that can be unrolled have long since replaced newspapers and magazines. Global warming is now seen as no longer such a problem although sea levels did rise slightly in some parts of the world causing flooding. Some parts of hot countries are no longer able to be farmed. World population is now back to 6 billion and falling.
Last edited by Wildwell on Sun Feb 06, 2005 9:28 am; edited 3 times in total
the carrying capacity of the land in europe and the US, etc.. has been overshot by 200 million plus.
by 2030 it will have been overshot by 400 million plus.
something to consider.
your scenario is good if everyone had an indoor greenhouse and earthship.
went to walmart yesterday. your scenario will not be understood by the majority of overindustrialized humanoids. The inbred look is in. the gene pool is a sewer.
the carrying capacity of the US is overshot by 200 plus million and europe it was overshot many many moons ago. If europe tries to feed itself die off will occur.
Late 2005/2006 Oil shock causes dip on consumption and moves are made in several countries to move away from low efficiency cars. SUVs in the US are no longer considered desirable.
2007-2010 Run up to peak oil, nobody is quite sure when the peak is actually happening, but every increasing oil prices mean a consumer push to efficiency and energy savings. However, much of this is offset by rising oil and car use in China and India. There will be least one more war to secure oil supplies.
2010 It becomes obvious to many economists and politicians that peak oil is now past. First world wide conference takes place involving national states on the issue of Peak oil. Climate change and Peak oil is number one issue in the west. Most airlines are in bankruptcy, especially in the US and Europe.
2011 US and UK economy in freefall. Consumer debt and high unemployment creates rapid recession and shrinking economy. Interest rates rise rapidly in these countries and less so throughout world. Households begin to sell unwanted or second cars and attempt to pay off debts. Riots in Several US and one British city take place, army sent to the streets. Governments in Europe and US meet in several emergency meetings as Fuel protests bite hard into the economies of the west.
2011 Regional resource conflicts emerge globally. Seeing an opportunity, North Korea parks 7 atomic devices in downtown Seoul and declares victory. Keying on this, several Islamic countries make land grabs. Al Qaeda detonates an atomic device on US soil, but makes it look like North Korea did it. The US responds against North Korea massively, and all of the Korean Peninsula becomes uninhabitable. A nuclear exchange between India & Pakistan draws China into the conflict. India disappears. China destroys a US aircraft carrier off the coast of India. China has the biggest population drop ever, as US ICBMs blanket the country.
2012 You're roasting a dog on a spit while your brother is taking bets by the "circle of death". _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
are we all that insulated from what is actually occurring in the world. Ive always said overindustrialization allows insulation from reality. Ive been to hell holes, undrstand whats coming.
Late 2005/2006 Oil shock causes dip on consumption and moves are made in several countries to move away from low efficiency cars. SUVs in the US are no longer considered desirable.
2007-2010 Run up to peak oil, nobody is quite sure when the peak is actually happening, but every increasing oil prices mean a consumer push to efficiency and energy savings. However, much of this is offset by rising oil and car use in China and India. There will be least one more war to secure oil supplies.
2010 It becomes obvious to many economists and politicians that peak oil is now past. First world wide conference takes place involving national states on the issue of Peak oil. Climate change and Peak oil is number one issue in the west. Most airlines are in bankruptcy, especially in the US and Europe.
2011 US and UK economy in freefall. Consumer debt and high unemployment creates rapid recession and shrinking economy. Interest rates rise rapidly in these countries and less so throughout world. Households begin to sell unwanted or second cars and attempt to pay off debts. Riots in Several US and one British city take place, army sent to the streets. Governments in Europe and US meet in several emergency meetings as Fuel protests bite hard into the economies of the west.
2011 Regional resource conflicts emerge globally. Seeing an opportunity, North Korea parks 7 atomic devices in downtown Seoul and declares victory. Keying on this, several Islamic countries make land grabs. Al Qaeda detonates an atomic device on US soil, but makes it look like North Korea did it. The US responds against North Korea massively, and all of the Korean Peninsula becomes uninhabitable. A nuclear exchange between India & Pakistan draws China into the conflict. India disappears. China destroys a US aircraft carrier off the coast of India. China has the biggest population drop ever, as US ICBMs blanket the country.
2012 You're roasting a dog on a spit while your brother is taking bets by the "circle of death".
the carrying capacity of the land in europe and the US, etc.. has been overshot by 200 million plus.
by 2030 it will have been overshot by 400 million plus.
something to consider.
your scenario is good if everyone had an indoor greenhouse and earthship.
went to walmart yesterday. your scenario will not be understood by the majority of overindustrialized humanoids. The inbred look is in. the gene pool is a sewer.
Yep, I thought about the food thing. I think oil based fertilisers will still be used for some time, the loss of output being made up by dips in transport use. There will still be transport to move this stuff about and new tunnels have been planned already to link Europe with North africa and so on. So oil use could be saved by less sea transport too.
Late 2005/2006 Oil shock causes dip on consumption and moves are made in several countries to move away from low efficiency cars. SUVs in the US are no longer considered desirable.
2007-2010 Run up to peak oil, nobody is quite sure when the peak is actually happening, but every increasing oil prices mean a consumer push to efficiency and energy savings. However, much of this is offset by rising oil and car use in China and India. There will be least one more war to secure oil supplies.
2010 It becomes obvious to many economists and politicians that peak oil is now past. First world wide conference takes place involving national states on the issue of Peak oil. Climate change and Peak oil is number one issue in the west. Most airlines are in bankruptcy, especially in the US and Europe.
2011 US and UK economy in freefall. Consumer debt and high unemployment creates rapid recession and shrinking economy. Interest rates rise rapidly in these countries and less so throughout world. Households begin to sell unwanted or second cars and attempt to pay off debts. Riots in Several US and one British city take place, army sent to the streets. Governments in Europe and US meet in several emergency meetings as Fuel protests bite hard into the economies of the west.
2011 Regional resource conflicts emerge globally. Seeing an opportunity, North Korea parks 7 atomic devices in downtown Seoul and declares victory. Keying on this, several Islamic countries make land grabs. Al Qaeda detonates an atomic device on US soil, but makes it look like North Korea did it. The US responds against North Korea massively, and all of the Korean Peninsula becomes uninhabitable. A nuclear exchange between India & Pakistan draws China into the conflict. India disappears. China destroys a US aircraft carrier off the coast of India. China has the biggest population drop ever, as US ICBMs blanket the country.
2012 You're roasting a dog on a spit while your brother is taking bets by the "circle of death".
lol! It’s partly up to you people to keep your politicians in check! I'll play down the nuclear war thing because we all know it's not really an option. Wars will still be fought conventionally and already US and UK troops are overstretched. Call me an optimist, but I have more faith in human nature when then chips are down in this age of mass information.
I do have hope for a soft landing, though I suspect there will be plenty of nastiness, even then.
I don't think we will keep making gadgets like cell phones and MP3 players. They may not use much energy, but it takes a hell of a lot of energy to manufacture them. That will make them out of reach for most people, and therefore not terribly useful.
With fewer people using them, the companies that maintain the infrastructure will go belly-up. During the blackout of 2003, cell service went down, too. There was no power to most cell towers. Will it be worthwhile to maintain and power such infrastructure, when maybe two or three people in each town can afford a cell phone?
Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2005 11:31 am Post subject:
Holmes, where the hell did you found that US or EU population is "overshoot"? Both regions are exporters of food, where is your reasoning here?
Indigenous european population is now falling, and is not higher than in 40's of 20th century when European population was the same, without mass fertilizers/mechanization! So yet again, where is your reasoning for such absurd statement? Even land and forest degradation is now under control in EU countries..
Oil based fertilizers? Yet again: OIL IS NOT USED FOR FERTILIZER PRODUCTION!! Natural gas is (methane) - as a cheap source of hydrogen, and can be easilly replaced by other hydrogen extraction methods..
omg. the US is the biggest producer of food for the entire world. Arab and foreign population is booming in europe. "old world europeans will be a minority soon enough. You need to really check out the growth of radical arab populations, etc in europe. When was europe a sustainable eneterprise? Did I miss something? Your resources are crap. Your fiseries are declining. One big surge in population and thats it. as for the world.
Now dont get me wrong. Europe is way ahead of america in cahnging to a green economy. You should be proud of that. But.... its just band aids, dude. I recomend folks just start becoming more self suffcient.
Just tell me when did Europe get resourcs back. Did you all come up with matter creation. All those empires through history practiced sustainability?
the world is losing prime agricultural soils at exponential rates. Ever see the coasts of the world. Nasa got some photos. Its red inn ocean. Soils.
blowin in the wind.
right here in america we have multinational european countries owning our water and ag land. Why do you all need our resources? Yours are so prime.
however many parts of europe are self sufficient. but the whole wont last. Just like the world. small pockets here and their. but maiantianing super power status. Im not buying. the prime resources to sustain a super power are going by by.
You want numers. Go to my old college library, ESF Syracuse. You cna find insurmaountable data to back me up. Im tired of working my ass off to prove what is reality.
I do wish the US would get on the boat with the EU and the green economy. but we wont yet.
Wildwell, Well done. Peak isn't as dire and immediate as many are predicting. People will definitely develop strategies to deal with it and in the long run it is a really great development. Energy should be really expensive, because as human beings we need to be held back a bit. Imagine limitless, cheap power on a finite planet. How scary is that? We have peak water, peak steel, peak fish, peak everything else to deal with, and it should be clearly represented and countered with expensive energy.
Oddly enough, I think MP3 players will last pretty far into the collapse. From what I've observed, portable radios and personal music devices are very nice for people on public transit and people walking. They are an excellent way to tune out the people you don't want to associate with, and the distraction helps you either walk farther, or be patient waiting for a bus. I expect as more people have to walk and take transit, radio/MP3 players will continue to be popular, and a reasonable use of technology. Hell, I expect a good number of manual-labor farmhands to be listening to portable (possibly solar or hand cranked) radios 100 years from now.
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