Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:26 pm Post subject: reserve growth
Good post, Jay
Note that this data includes a 14% increase in "reserves" between 2002 and 2003. Before this, the average rate of "reserve growth" was .4% per year. According to the BP review the average growth rate of consumption for the same period was 1.1% (higher than your government's estimate of 1.09).
As long as this reserve growth is "real" and not just political posturing then maybe the sky is not falling.
However note the two ominous statements from the same article:
" Iran did not cite reasons for the revisions, such as reservoir performance, development drill- ing, or injection projects. "
"With restoration of Iraqi production capacity, Iran has a political reason to increase its reserves estimate. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries historically has assigned the two countries equivalent production quotas. Iran's current quota is 3.7 million b/d."
I am still a peak oil agnostic. I don't think it is proven, and I don't think it's provable. There's no consistent, reliable data from anybody, including your tax-financed EIA.
1) Total reserves increase by >14% while proven reserves increase by 0.122%. This is statistically impossible.
2) 35 out of 52 countries post unchanged reserves. The chance that so many countries find exactly as much oil as they use is statistically close to zero.
3) 3 out of 6 countries which post increased reserves (proven) have had declining productions over the past 5 years.
4) Downwards revisions in reserves by Shell and others have not (yet) been incorporated
1) Total reserves increase by >14% while proven reserves increase by 0.122%. This is statistically impossible.
Hi smiley,
without looking further on those data, I think this is a direct result of the addition of (mostly Canda's) tar sands to world's "recoverable" reserves as the crude-price in 2003 was high enough for economical production of those tar sands.
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