A message to friends and family ... [ feedback sought ]

hermit · Heavy Crude Joined: May 13, 2008 Posts: 121

I have composed the following message to send to our friends and family, and would like to hear everyone's thoughts on it. It's not the full story, but I've tried to achieve a balance of what they need to hear, and what they're ready to hear. Some family members are quite vulnerable, and we really worry about them.
I'd really appreciate everyone's thoughts.
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"A message to friends and family regarding current economic crisis"

Dear friends and family members,

After much consideration, Sally and I are sending the following email. We hope you take a moment to discuss it with spouse/SO.

2008 has brought with it a lot of economic changes, challenges, and uncertainty. We all see the ongoing financial crisis on the news, and are feeling the pinch of rising costs. Most are waiting for things to get better. Sally and I do not believe it will. Earlier this year we began educating ourselves about the current economic crisis, and would like to share with you what we have learned so far. Likely you're already made, or are making, some of the same realizations.

We will not belabor this message past this mailing. It is not our intent to convince - It is enough for us to know that we have sent it and that you have read it.

The short version: It is our belief that the current energy/financial crisis primarily originates from a decline in available cheap oil. As oil prices increase, so will cost of living, resulting in a decline in our standard of living. Those who better understand the challenge will be better able to adjust to it.

The longer version:

Sometime around last year, the world crossed the point at which over half of the world's known oil has already been extracted. This is called "Peak Oil". The days of Jed Clampett's cheaply available "Bubblin' crude" are fading, pushing us towards unconventional sources, such as Tar Sands, Oil Shale, and Offshore. These sources are of low quality, and costly to extract - Costs which are passed on to the consumer. There is no chance that we will find any significant amount of new oil: the number and size of new oil discoveries has been decreasing since 1970 - Any further discoveries will be spare change.

Meanwhile, third world countries are developing their petroleum-based economies, causing increased demand for that which remains, further driving costs up. Petroleum currently costs 7 times more per barrel than it did 10 years ago.

Unfortunately, there is no viable energy alternative to replace oil. All of the the current energy alternatives are insufficient, or misunderstood. Ethanol-from-corn is oil-dependant, as is Hydrogen-from-water. Windpower can provide some energy, but not enough to meet modern society's massive energy needs. Solar power currently returns less energy than it takes to create solar panels. As time goes on, we will end up relying more upon Natural Gas, Coal, and Uranium, but these too are running out, and will not actually bring down the cost of energy.

What does this mean for us all? *This means a drastic increase in our cost of living, and a gradual decrease in our quality of living*. In the short term we will be able to afford less and less, starting with luxuries, and potentially leading to necessities. In the medium term we can expect rotating shortages of electricity, goods, fuel, and food.

Experts disagree as to how fast these events will unfold. Some believe we are on the brink of a sudden crash - Sally and I do not. We subscribe to the "Long Emergency" theory, which describes a slow economic decline: a great depression, arriving in slow motion. That being said, it's anyone's guess.

Living in *******, we are lucky. We are in an agriculturally bountiful region, and our economy gets a boost from Petroleum. This will give us some insulation from rising costs and shortages, but not immunity. The impact of rising oil costs will hit us a little slower and a little softer than the rest of North America, but we will still feel it. Those with sufficient money will likely be able to maintain their current standard of living for the rest of their lives, but those of limited means, particularly families, will need to adjust. We suggest it is better that we do this adjustment proactively, on our own terms, before events force hard choices upon us.

Here are a few suggestions that we offer for your consideration:

- Localize your life: Try to find work/dentist/schools, etc that are reasonably close to your home.
- Make debt reduction a priority, particularly high-interest consumer debt (line of credit, credit cards).
- If you do not own a house, consider what it would take to do so.

- Create a family budget. Where is your money going? Where do you want it to go?
- Consider the effect of increasing fossil fuel costs upon your own life.
- Localize your food supply: Learn to garden and/or eat locally grown produce.
- Replace dependence upon disposables by switching to reusables.
- Keep a month's worth of food on hand and the means to prepare it.
- Get any necessary dental/medical work done - don't put it off.
- Consider moving existing investments/RRSPs out of Transport, Manufacturing, and Tech, and into Energy and Agriculture.
- Identify needs vs. luxuries. Identify necessary shopping vs. recreational shopping.
- Learn how to live with less.

These are all good practices at the best of times - but will become increasingly important as living costs continue to increase. Adopt the practices that work for you, and incorporate them slowly. Change doesn't happen overnight.

Some may mistake this as a call for environmentalism. It is not. This is a suggestion to adjust our lives in order to ease our transition into an era that will demand frugality.

You may feel inconvenienced by this message. We apologize for this, and hope you understand that it is sent simply because we care about the well being of those around us. Please do not circulate or forward this.

Best regards,
The Smith Family

BigTex

If it makes you feel better, send it, but I can virtually guarantee that it won't cause anyone who receives it to change anything about their lives.

The awareness you have came from your own honest investigation into matters. You were ready to see the things you discovered. That's why you dicovered them.

If the message were a risk-free proposition, such as something sent anonymously, then I would say do it. If you put your name on it, however, a significant number of people who receive it will think you're a kook, which may mess up relationships you value with your friends and family.

Credibility, once lost, is hard to get back. The fact that you're right is not all that relevant (unfortunately).

I wouldn't send the message. I would, however, talk to people about things and maybe send a shorter message about simplifying your life in general and why you think it's a great idea in general terms.

It's counter-intuitive, but I have learned that telling someone something that they're not ready to hear can be worse than not telling them at all. I hope that doesn't sound cynical, because it's not intended that way. Different people have different views on this matter, but I like to look at the actual effects of what I do, and just standing on the street corner proclaiming the truth often isn't the best way of getting the truth to actually embed itself in peoples' minds.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.
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Smile

Ayoob · Expert Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 1038

I'd skip it. It comes across as unsolicited advice, and preachy to boot. If you want to alienate your friends it should work pretty well, though.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1485

I think it's quite excellent. Makes the point without undue slapping, and won't leave any reasonable reader feeling violated. Good length, grammar and diction both very good.

Some minor points . . .

"natural Gas, Coal, and Uranium, but these too are running out"

Not "running out". Perhaps, "are limited and will soon be running out."

"Experts disagree as to how fast these events will unfold. "

I'd avoid using the word "experts", because most of the experts out there don't agree with your letter. Maybe, "those familiar with the problem of peaking oil supplies . . . " or something less formal.

"those with sufficient money will likely be able to maintain their current standard of living for the rest of their lives"

Impossible, and probably not relevant. Everybody will be affected because money will buy less, no matter how much money you have.

"- If you do not own a house, consider what it would take to do so. "
This is unclear. Are you advocating purchase (consider getting in one soon) or not (consider how expensive it would be). I'm torn on this, but my best advice to those who are cash strapped would be to get a bunch of cheap rural land and put a modular or trailer on it. Why waste money on a house if you're already cash strapped and houses are still 50% overpriced?

"Keep a month's worth of food on hand and the means to prepare it."
I'd say 3 months minimum. No prep needed. Rice can be eaten raw if needed. That's 3 months for the new indoctrinates only. For the initiated, if you can't see 1 year in your pantry - calories - you are making a mistake.

I'd also add a line advising your readers to keep several grand in cash on hand. Banks are going to be failing in large numbers soon.

Love this line . . .

"Some may mistake this as a call for environmentalism." Preemptive so that the right wingers can't p-shaw and put your letter down reflexively.

Question? Why the concern about forwarding and so on? If that really is a concern, I'd say don't send it, because it's going to be shown around, scanned, forwarded. If you send it by email it'll be in China w/in a day.

All in all, it's really good, communicates the points at the right level, and potentially has the effect of getting one or two DSEs to look up from the trough. Can be sent as-is for sure.

Of course, I disagree about the "LE" bit. This will be acute. To believe that the 6.5 billion people on this planet are going to watch their lives and everything they thought was real drift away and not put up a violent fight to keep it is . . . well, let's leave it at "very hopeful."
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Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1485

To Big Tex and Ayoob.

With respect, I differ from your approach.

You both imply or suggest that a letter such as the one proffered will cause "alienation" of friends or "screw up" valued relationships.

Cashmere's basic premise of relationships in the coming apocalypse:

If they think less of you for trying to help, then the relationship should be put on hold.

People.

We

are

running

out

of

time.

You need to get your arms around this right now. The banking system is on the verge of collapse. Energy prices are getting out of hand. This winter is going to be a horrorshow as deaths from freezing are reported, utility shut offs are held up as demons, the nation moves even more strongly to complete central control . . .

Any time you put into "valued relationships" with people who refuse to even consider the truth is wasted.

Skip the holidays this year.

End your business-as-usual approach.

When they ask why you didn't make it for Thanksgiving, say, "reread my letter. If you discarded it, I'll be happy to send you another copy."

Time is running out. Use the time you have to prepare. Don't waste it on people who refuse to consider.

If they call you at some point down the road because they want to consider, then reopen the relationship.

This is it folks.

Game time is soon.

Reassess immediately each of your relationships, and migrate toward those who get this and away from those who refuse to consider it.

GDP for 4Q07 was just revised to be negative.

I guess the scam there is that the DSEs won't notice if the Recession is only officially noted 6 months retroactively.

Spend your relationship time networking with people who will help you.

For the other people - the ones who are too ignorant to even consider your words?

See here

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_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

coyote

CarlosFerreira

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1485

One other note . . .

I sent out a similar, but much more brutal, letter to about 30 people.

2 people responded very favorably ("it makes sense, wow!").
2 people responded with, "interesting. Thank you very much for sending it."
15 people stopped talking to me altogether.
5 or 6 people ignored it and interact with me as if I didn't have a giant tumor on my face.
5 or 6 people attempted to continue as is, but were heard to say very unpleasant things about me.

One of the 2 favorables was a 17 year old girl. If all I did was show her the way, then the rest of it was not only worth it - it was a G-d damned theft on my part to dump the ignorant to help one.

By the way, one of the two favorables was totally off the wall unexpected. I had thought she would be in the, "take this lunatic off the Chistmas list" side of things.

Instead, it turns out, she knew something was wrong, she just needed to see it concisely presented.

Imagine - nothing on the local news!
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

BigTex

Good comments Cashmere.

One way of describing things that I think will potentially resonate with people was a comment that Deffeyes made in one of his books. It was something to the effect of:

"We are going from an environment of increasing oil production to an environment of decreasing oil production. What this innocent sounding fact will mean is that in the future just as the world begins to adjust to a new lower level of oil production, a newer and lower level of production will appear. It is almost certain that the rate at which this decline occurs will outpace the world's ability to take meaningful mitigation steps, since such steps would require a lead time of many years."

That's not too doomy and paints a pretty clear picture.

Maybe make a comment about what the 1970s were like, and how that was an ARTIFICIAL shortage of oil. This time around there won't be anyone to turn on the spigot when things get really desperate.
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Smile

Ayoob · Expert Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 1038

gnm

I think homepower once put together a full analysis of PV's and found that they do indeed make more power over their life than used to create them so you might want to strike that part. They calculated off 20 years or something since actual PV lifespan is still not known. I have a friend who has some 30 year old panels that are still producing in the neighborhood of 75% of rated.

Its well written but I am not sure I'd send it.
I often find that planting an idea in an offhand way and not elaborating is more useful than a full frontal assault. I just drop a hint and then let them start digging... Evil or Very Mad

-G
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All right, you primitive screw-heads, listen up!

CarlosFerreira

Wren · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 30, 2008 Posts: 63 Location: Oregon

I have to say, I am in pretty much full agreence with Cashmere's posts.
But, as faras the letter...there is a reference to getting out of consumer debt. I have heard this a bunch, but not ever really learned why? Wouldn't it be smarter to just get all the supplies your family needs, forget about the debt (since the banks are going under anyway) and save the cash on hand?
Not saying I've done this. I am in fact quite confussed on this topic and if someone could explain or direct me to the right topic, much appreciated.
The few (about four) people I've talked to -in letter form- about this topic have all acted like they never recieved anything. And my parents are quite delusional, taking the I've lived through this before in the 70s and 80s standpoint- things will get better.

Ferretlover

Save your letter, Hermit. You might get to use some part of it in the future.
If you really feel compelled to say something to your family and friends, I would suggest something along the lines of: "The world sure is getting weird. When you have a minute, would you give me your ideas/analysis/theories on why the following things are happening." Then, list some or all the problems-without your comments.
Most will probably respond in some way to one or more points. Most will spout nonsense, ie: just a blip, tech will save us, etc.
But, you will have a better understanding of where each of them is (mentally); more importantly, you may find one or two who are also concerned, and maybe have been timid about bringing up Doom.
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"RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1485