How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Sun May 29, 2005 2:26 pm Post subject: How did nations organize production in war?
Much has been written, on this forum and elsewhere, about how oil scarcity and high prices will remove our capacity for economic growth, thereby destroying the fundanmental condition required for our interest-centered monetary system. Then you throw in dept, the housing bubble, the inflation and higher prices from oil shocks, etc. etc., and you get a real economic nightmare on your hands. Many people believe an economic crash will be swift and brutal, and will be what hits us first long before oil depletion becomes seriously crippling.
However, I was thinking, how could this be much worse than modern warfare? For example, take WW2 Brittain. They were getting bombed, randomly losing infrastructure, grocery stores, hospitals, etc., had to somehow force most of the population to scrimp and save and retool for wartime expenses (did that affect tax income?), had to redirect fuels and resources for the war while maintaining public order, and somehow they managed. Many countries funded their own war efforts without outside help. I am aware many countries were awash with oil during WW2, but there was a need to redirect resources to the war effort, so surely there are many examples of civilian sectors making due with less fuel.
For the first few years, how could oil depletion be any worse than the affects of a major war? I understand in the long run oil depletion will be worse than a war - the transportation sectors will starve for everyone, there won't be any nations stable enough to give handouts freely, and there will not be a guaranteed economic recovery with future growth down the road (like there is after wars when the country recovers). But can't things hang together the first few years, if they can hang together during a war?
In this thread, can we discuss how do countries organize their economic systems during warfare? Could similar methods allow countries to scrape by during the first few years of oil depletion? If our leaders turned to such crisis methods, would that give us "peak-aware" folks a few years of extra post-peak maneuvering time before things turned really ugly? _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2564 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Sun May 29, 2005 5:34 pm Post subject:
These things you say ARE possible...
But what do you think the reaction would be if only the peoples TV's were taken away?
If you give our society more credit than that...then i respectfully disagree with you.
The people entering WW2 were BETTER than us! THEY knew how to can tomatoes (we don't)...THEY had a sence of community (we don't)...THEY were loyal to their country (the jury's out on that one).
Sorry if i sound pessimistic but that's the way i see thing going (unfortunitly).
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2564 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Sun May 29, 2005 5:56 pm Post subject:
BTW:
how oil scarcity and high prices will remove our capacity for economic growth, thereby destroying the fundanmental condition required for our interest-centered monetary system.
May i use that quote? That is the best and simpelest way of summing up PEAK OIL that i have ever heard!
During the 6 years of WWII (1939-1945), the US built more than 300,000 aircraft -- 96318 aircraft in 1944 alone. The UK built 131,549 during that same period.
http://members.aol.com/forcountry/ww2/ac1.htm
Even today, the US has 104 nuclear reactors, most of which were built in the interval 1945 to 1990. That's a period of only 45 years.
Another interesting point is that, in the U.S., private automobile production was reduced to zero during WWII, and yet the economy still functioned.
LINK
I don't know how this switch was actually organized.
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Sun May 29, 2005 8:13 pm Post subject:
RonMN wrote:
BTW:
how oil scarcity and high prices will remove our capacity for economic growth, thereby destroying the fundanmental condition required for our interest-centered monetary system.
May i use that quote? That is the best and simpelest way of summing up PEAK OIL that i have ever heard!
It's a thing of beauty!
Go ahead and use it, although I'd imagine it needs some support.
As for people not banding together as well as before, I'm inclined to agree. However, I remember before WW2 everyone thought citizens would be panicking and rioting in the streets. And yet, most people were able to get used to the whole bomb shelter thing and react with relative calm. All the experts were amazed.
Of course, bombing was something that "happened to someone else" and dealing with it was done in one routine way. I don't think that mental defence is helpful for resource scarcity. _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4230 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sun May 29, 2005 8:16 pm Post subject:
I'll give canning lessons if need be!
That is interesting statement you make. It does give some hope that we can get through this period without having to roam the streets, starving, selling our souls for cheeseburgers.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4361 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sun May 29, 2005 8:35 pm Post subject:
Quote:
During the 6 years of WWII (1939-1945), the US built more than 300,000 aircraft -- 96318 aircraft in 1944 alone. The UK built 131,549 during that same period.
...
Another interesting point is that, in the U.S., private automobile production was reduced to zero during WWII, and yet the economy still functioned.
...
I don't know how this switch was actually organized.
All of it paid for with Liberty Bonds (a MASSIVE increase in the debt). We already have higher debt levels than the depths of WW2 and The War has barely started.
The switch was organized via a massive infusion of capital. The military-industrial complex expanded greatly during that time. The average citizen had learned to live with less during the Great Depression so making the switch to a War Time economy wasn't as difficult. Many factories lay idle during the 30's. The early 40's saw the de-mothballing of many of these factories for the production of weapons of war. We just can't do those kinds of things today.
To quote Judy Collins:
"Tis the fortune of bankers and builders of arms
To worship the profit however it comes
Up in their towers, sheltered from harm
Far from the smoke and the sound of the drums..." _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
The US rationed gasoline during WWII. The top classification was
"X", permitting you to buy unlimited amounts and this generally went
to the special folks -- the rich and powerful.
The rationing scheme had nothing to do with gas, and I presume the public
knew this. It was about rubber. To get signed up, you had to swear under oath you had no more than five tires--if you had more than five, the government confiscated them. Rubber was needed for the tanks and
other military vehicles and the Japanese had cutoff rubber supplies.
Why not? I don't see anything standing in the way of the government seizing control of the economy, if that is deemed to be necessary. In fact, I'm sure they have detailed plans for it, on file at the pentagon. It's a routine part of modern military planning.
Joined: Dec 20, 2004 Posts: 890 Location: Scotland
Posted: Mon May 30, 2005 5:06 am Post subject:
i think post peak oil may well be a bit like WWII in terms of rationing etc. (hopefully not the bombs though).
however, i also tend to agree with some people that we are worse people these days than the people of WWII. We are led to believe in this day and age that, if we work hard, and we pay money for something, we get it - no matter what. We are told we are entitled to own expensive goods etc., if only we agree to work 40 hours+ per week for around 50 years.
We are led to value the individual and the right of the individual to have the most comfortable life possible above all other things.
In WWII and before (in my country at least, Scotland), family and community were the most highly prized ideals. It was unheard of to leave home before you got married (a good thing in my opinion), if you got a job and stayed at home ALL of your pay went to your mum and dad (excellent thing in my opinion - think of the resources and effort they've put in to raising you!).
There was no such thing as cheap flights, cheap holidays abroad, very little people had cars, there were no electronic items to entertain you so everyone gathered round the coal fire at night with the family to keep warm - further strengthening ties. Also, everyone worked in the same places, in coal mines etc - there were Miners Social Clubs where everyone went - pretty much everyone earned the same, and led the same lifestyle. This creates a tremendous bond between everyone. nowadays we have NONE of these things, and so people dont identify with each other and they actually tend to dislike each other - in my experience - mainly because we are taught that life is merely a competition to secure access to a greater pile of cash than other people.
I predict a massive generation of spoiled brats throwing tantrums fairly soon
The wartime situation was entirely different. It would make today’s PC, Health and Safety and equal rights society stand on its head.
Everything was put toward the war effort. If you were too old to fight, you would be in factories making wartime equipment, helping move troops or on the home guard.
Petrol was rationed and everything was moved by horse or small truck to rail heads where it would be taken to where it was needed. You had 15/16 year old girls involved in railway operations or driving buses, 15/16 year old lads down pits or firing steam trains, housewives making bombs and most of the young males fighting,
Normal government was suspended and photography and media was extremely limited.
There was no time for consultants and risk assessments. Everyone would help rebuilt houses or broken bridges, food was severely rationed and there was no car use apart from government officials.
In short, the entire situation could probably no longer be repeated. To keep the economy going in anything like the same way would be impossible. Most women are now at work, and the H&S and Politically correct areas of life have turned everything on its head.
There would be no way to get nuclear facilities through planning, or the resources to design and build plants, worldwide, in such a short period.
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Mon May 30, 2005 7:27 pm Post subject:
Wildwell wrote:
Everything was put toward the war effort. If you were too old to fight, you would be in factories making wartime equipment, helping move troops or on the home guard.
Petrol was rationed and everything was moved by horse or small truck to rail heads where it would be taken to where it was needed. You had 15/16 year old girls involved in railway operations or driving buses, 15/16 year old lads down pits or firing steam trains, housewives making bombs and most of the young males fighting,
Normal government was suspended and photography and media was extremely limited.
There was no time for consultants and risk assessments. Everyone would help rebuilt houses or broken bridges, food was severely rationed and there was no car use apart from government officials.
HOW was this done? Who was doing it? Did "the captains of industry" all voluntarily change their factories and hiring processes out of patriotic duty? Or was it all a government mandate? Was money changing hands? Who was coralling the teenagers and putting them to work, and what was their compensation?
I doubt we can get the same effect, but I'd be interested to know what levers were pulled by leaders, and how people were reorganized this way. _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
1940's America := relatively homogeneous cities with unsocialized minorities quarantined in rural enclaves.
2000's america:= Unsocialized, armed, violence prone minorities concentrated in large population centers, not likely to wait their turn in bread lines or gas rationing ques...
What that mean to you PeakOilers looking forward to this socioeconomic break down wet dream is that yer not just going to "relocalize" and live pastoral lives free from walmart and traffic. You will likely be forced into labor brigades and enslaved if you are not killed outright in the initial violence. But that scenario is 100 years off IMHO.
I drove down a major street and ran into a major traffic jam. Luckily I moved to the farthest outside lane. turned out that about 1/2 mile down the road a radio station had FREE GASS FOR 99 MINUTES
Due to their fm signal being FM99
It was unbelievable. People trying to cut into line by "crossing from the opposing direction" and blocking lanes of traffic to "cut into" a line or the gas station itself.
I was lucky I got thru in about 30 minutes, others not so lucky.
The LINES and I mean 4 lanes backed up for over half a mile when the "news" went out was fast and furious.
How do I know, because I made the same trip 10 miniutes before I had to drive back thru.
In that time several hundred people had arrived and caused major traffic problems.
Yea, PO, ..odds are its going to be a real "experience".
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