I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2005 7:35 pm Post subject: WAR: The Peak Oil Solution
MonteQuest likes to say: WWII is the only thing that brought the U.S. out of the depression. I was thinking about this, and it hit me. When we go into peak oil depression, the way out of it is a war.
We could declare a "war on energy scarcity" or a "war on sprawl", but that would just be another war on top of the other 10 rhetorical wars we are already waging. Everybody would just roll over and push the snooze button.
No, we need a real war, which uses astronomical amounts of gasoline. It's going to have to be a war on a large scale; these little skirmishes in the Middle East aren't going to do it. They don't put enough pressure on the U.S. No, we need a war which taxes the U.S. to the limit -- to the point where sprawl is recognized as the potentially lethal vulnerability it is. How fast could the U.S. desprawl if they needed that fuel "for the troops"? I'm thinking pretty damn fast.
Gasoline would have to be conserved in to ensure the victory of Freedom. Jingoistic rednecks would be riding to work on their red-white-and-blue bicycles, with a patriotic flag flapping behind. This would be the final culmination of the Geo Green idea.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2005 7:58 pm Post subject: Re: WAR: The Peak Oil Solution
JohnDenver wrote:
No, we need a real war, which uses astronomical amounts of gasoline. It's going to have to be a war on a large scale; these little skirmishes in the Middle East aren't going to do it.
Thats the last thing anyone wants. There hasn't been a "real" war in over 60 years, are you familiar with the beggining of WWI? The US knows it could be in for a real ass kicking if they've been barking up the wrong technological tree for the past half-century, and I bet they'd rather fight little wars like Iraq and just deny everyone else the oil.
Thats not even to mention you're assuming the US could mobilize for a war-I think the majority would rather have an isolationist government then a Prussian general, even after 9/11.
Quote:
They don't put enough pressure on the U.S. No, we need a war which taxes the U.S. to the limit --
I certainly farking don't-theres always a chance that the US could buckle under pressure and send the entire country to hell before any ramifications from peak oil or any other of the big problems facing us next century really set in. Why can't the pressure be put on China?
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2005 8:28 pm Post subject: Re: WAR: The Peak Oil Solution
El_Producto wrote:
theres always a chance that the US could buckle under pressure and send the entire country to hell
Yah, that's the point, isn't it? The U.S. has got this glaring Achilles heel, a big soft underbelly. In fact, at this point, the U.S. is in a position not that different from Japan in WWII -- a country without any oil or gas. They'd have to fight with a handicap, like Nazi Germany, fueling their machines with liquefied coal and alcohol.
You know, when the U.S. first started mucking around in the Middle East after 9-11, I felt so sorry for the muslims. It was like a bunch of skinny, malnourished muslim kids in a street fight with a huge Gundam robot. The poor bastards didn't stand a chance. Then I noticed that the robot, fearsome as it was, had a power cord, and was plugged into the wall. All you needed was one skinny kid to slip through and pull the plug...
The strategy to make the U.S. cave in is simple: lure them into a fight that takes lots and lots of gasoline. They can't fuel a war and suburbia at the same time, and they can't get rid of suburbia because, well, they just can't.
The following is a quote from the Road Warrior about oil and war:
To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel. And the desert sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2005 8:47 pm Post subject: Re: WAR: The Peak Oil Solution
JohnDenver wrote:
El_Producto wrote:
theres always a chance that the US could buckle under pressure and send the entire country to hell
Yah, that's the point, isn't it? The U.S. has got this glaring Achilles heel, a big soft underbelly. In fact, at this point, the U.S. is in a position not that different from Japan in WWII -- a country without any oil or gas.
It all depends on whether the energy exporters would continue to send oil our way during a major war. Also, the US doesnt have anyone who could, even in theory, threaten its navy or oil supplies seriously.
Quote:
The strategy to make the U.S. cave in is simple: lure them into a fight that takes lots and lots of gasoline. They can't fuel a war and suburbia at the same time, and they can't get rid of suburbia because, well, they just can't.
Do you have a specific scenario, or are you just theorizing?
Geology_Guy, that quote from The Road Warrior says it all. Wonder if the dudes who created that story realized how prophetic they were being. Nah--they were just trying to make a few million bucks off of Show Biz. But they were prophetic, nonetheless.
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4189 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2005 11:26 pm Post subject:
JohnDenver great posts!!
And yes, WWII had gas rationing, the average person got 2 gallons a week. WWII was all-out, kids collecting tinfoil, people's garages searched for any extra tires which they had to turn in, victory gardens of course, etc etc yadda yadda.
It would be interesting if that happens again, since WWII was fought with the Depression folks, used to discipline and want, and hard work. Imagine fighting WWII with today's Diabetes-II generation.
And our "enemies" are NOT dumb. They know all this, all they have to do is pull the plug on the Gundam robot.
Dear oh, oh dear, oh dear. Where do you think the US wealth came from in the early to mid 20th century, why was the gold standard abondoned, why was the US well positioned to develop a huge road expansion plan and why was Britain tied up in this....What was the role of the Swiss?
No idea? Well read on and follow the clues and hints...
Even the flippin EU was tied up by the mess created by the generation of the early 2Oth century.
'While the US had employed direct conquest and domination in its own hemisphere, it was not drawn into the inter-imperialist rivalry that sparked WWI. So the US did not find itself predominantly "exporting capital" to its colonies via private institutions, but exporting it to the advanced capitalist states, particularly Great Britain, as loans for their war with the Germans and Ottomans, loans approved and guaranteed by the United States government.'
'The United States stayed out of the war until it became likely that without US intervention, the Allies would lose and their debts to America would remain unpaid. Once the war was over, Great Britain and France were heavily indebted, and the US - far from being the benevolent post-war ally - behaved much like any Brooklyn loan shark, bleeding its former allies so severely that they in turn wrecked the post-war German economy with reparations to assist the allies in their debts. This led directly to the rise of Nazism and the Second World War.'
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