I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:25 am Post subject: Venezuela - Imapct of August, 2004 election?
Quote:
From Counterpunch.org:
How do we know that the CIA was behind the coup that overthrew Hugo Chavez?
Same way we know that the sun will rise tomorrow morning. That's what it's always done and there's no reason to think that tomorrow morning will be any different.
Consider Chavez's crimes:
Branding the US attacks on Afghanistan as "fighting terrorism with terrorism", he demanded an end to "the slaughter of innocents"; holding up photographs of children killed in the American bombing attacks, he said their deaths had "no justification, just as the attacks in New York did not, either." In response, the Bush administration temporarily withdrew its ambassador.
Being very friendly with Fidel Castro and selling oil to Cuba at discount rates.
His defense minister asking the permanent US military mission in Venezuela to vacate its offices in the military headquarters in Caracas, saying its presence was an anachronism from the cold war.
Not cooperating to Washington's satisfaction with the US war against the Colombian guerrillas.
Denying Venezuelan airspace to US counter-drug flights.
Refusing to provide US intelligence agencies with information on Venezuela's large Arab community.
Questioning the sanctity of globalization.
Promoting a regional free-trade bloc and united Latin American petroleum operations as a way to break free from US economic dominance.
Visiting Sadam Hussein in Iraq and Moammar Gaddafy in Libya.
I've been looking for a good zource for news regarding Venezuela and the upcoming referendum on President Hugo Chavez. This is the best I've found so far:
As many people here probably already know, Chavez is controversial, and a friend of "the people" rather than international big business. Bush & co want him out so privitization and big (oil) business corporations can control the oil with less eventually paid to Venezuela. This is a very important issue in relationship to the global oil situation, and particularly, U.S. imports. Remember also, the Venezuela supplies oil to Cuba, and that they would certainly be cut off the instant a Caracas administration friendly to the White House takes over.
Remember how the U.S. literally had a delegation standing by that flew to Caracas in July, 2002 after the short-lived coup to welcome the new leaders. (The White House called the coup "change of government", because it doesn't support coups.) When huge, days long populist demonstrations forced the government to let Chavez back into the President's office, the U.S. delegation queitly put its tail between its legs, and slipped back to Washington.
I think that the Venezuela situation is n important one to watch.
Remember Chavez has also threatened to cut off the US from oil if CIA operations continue to target him. With Venezuela being one of the US' largest sources of oil imports, this is a bold statement. Clearly he is not liked by the 'powers that be' in Washington, Wall Street, and elsewhere.
It will be a sad day if (when?) Chavez is toppled by US proxy forces wishing to more ruthlessly control South American oil. I believe (as you do) that the US-Venezuela relationship is one of the most significant in the western hemisphere. 'The South' (meaning developing countries and in particular Latin America and Africa) are gaining awareness that our globalized economy is not working in their favor. Hugo Chavez has been very vocal about the need to challenge today's world economic order that basically uses developing countries as resource and cheap labor colonies for the developed world. With the bulk of profits from these operations going to the developed world! Of course, a world leader challenging globalization today get the same response that preaching Communism would have 40 or 50 years ago. That is, his name ends up on a black list and targeted for 'regime change'.
Chavez's removal by the US would represent the knockout of another opponent of globalization and be yet another sorry tale of the US' approach to governments which challenge it in any way. It will be interesting to see how Venezuela wields their economic power going forward and how the US responds to it.
I've been looking for a good zource for news regarding Venezuela and the upcoming referendum on President Hugo Chavez
Dave, You're way off. And I don't blame you.
The leftish image that the Venezuelan government is trying to sell is far away from their true nature. It's populism and lies, please trust me. The dissinformation campaign is draining resources from the real issues in Venezuela, unemployment, violence and insecurity, etc.
There are some good sources of information about Venezuela:
The leftish image that the Venezuelan government is trying to sell is far away from their true nature. It's populism and lies, please trust me.
I agree. Venezuela deserves a better government. One which effectively can fight the brutality and corruption. But you also have to look at the opposition that the US is pushing into power.
I'm very glad that the CIA assisted coup failed. I think Tenets pupils are even bigger scum than Chavez.
I mean Chavez might be not be the best president (euphemism) but he has been elected fairly. People have the right to elect a fool. And at no point there has been the slightest hint that he would deny the people free elections like Chevardnadze.
But the main point is that this so-called opposition is willing to sacrifice the economy, the consitution, and the democratic tradition in Venezuela. I don't know where you're from but, imagine that in your country the opposition would start a strike or worse a coup to oust your president or prime minister from power.
Why should we support people that in every other democratic country would be considered as a bunch of criminals? These people used violence to gain power, instead of having the patience to wait for the next democratic elections.
What guarantee do we have that they will not use such means to stay in power? What guarantee do we have that they will respect the democratic tradition in the future?
Nation building is a dangerous business. We have already created a Batista, a Marcos and a Noriega, why risk creating any more?
I mean Chavez might be not be the best president (euphemism) but he has been elected fairly. People have the right to elect a fool
I very much agree with you. The great majority of venezuelans agree with you, the democratic way is the only way. But the following:
Quote:
And at no point there has been the slightest hint that he would deny the people free elections like Chevardnadze.
Oh, yes, there has been!
The road to the referendum that is going to take place in venezuela it's been very rough for the opposition, and Chavez has used every trick in the book in order to stop it (the OEA had a very important role in this regard). The government took control of the electoral body (CNE), and it's slowly taking control of the judicial branch (TSJ). I don't think Chavez's government is the best example of democracy, and I don't take for granted that the people will have the chance to get him out of office in fair elections.
Quote:
But the main point is that this so-called opposition is willing to sacrifice the economy, the consitution, and the democratic tradition in Venezuela.
Yes, there are factors in the venezuelan opposition that are not pursuing the best interests of the people; but they are NOT the whole oppsition! You know, people around the world are under the impression that the political struggle in Venezuela is about the "rich" (opposition) trying to oust a government of the "poor" (Chavez). FAR from the truth! the opposition is made of people from all classes, in fact, the majority are from low and middle-class families, and you can see it in the opposition rallies and concentrations. The left-wing super-hero mith is a lie sold to the world, but nobody in Venezuela is buying it. There are proof of outrageous acts of corruption, political prisoners, etc, etc.
To be fair, the government still have a strong popular support; so let's wait to the referendum to take place, and hope for a clean and fair proccess.
Sorry for the big OT post, but I think that the understanding of the political situation in Venezuela is very important to the oil industry concerns. I do think that the people now in charge of the national oil company (PDVSA) are very incompetent, and the company is now a black box. It's hard to make an analysis of the future of the oil industry in the country.
I think you already guessed it... yes, I'm from Venezuela... _________________ Regards,
Arraitz
Sorry for the big OT post, but I think that the understanding of the political situation in Venezuela is very important to the oil industry concerns.
I don't consider this off-topic. I think most people would agree that political stability in the oil producing countries is very important.
It's nice to hear from a Venezuelan how he thinks about the situation. I've travelled quite a lot in the Americas, but I never had the pleasure visiting Venezuela. The problem here is to get unbiased information on the situation. Every source seems to have it's own political agenda, whether it's left or right, and they are not afraid of twisting the truth.
Anyway I wish you and your country good luck with the decision ahead. It's a tough choice and I hope you can make it without the interference of others.
Quote:
I do think that the people now in charge of the national oil company (PDVSA) are very incompetent, and the company is now a black box.
Correct me if I'm wrong but as I understood the opposition is planning to leave OPEC abandon their production quota. I believe this is one of the main reasons for the US support. While this might give temporarily relief, it also means that Venezuela will deplete its resources faster. I wonder whether that would be in the best interest of Venezuela. It might be something to consider.
The problem here is to get unbiased information on the situation. Every source seems to have it's own political agenda, whether it's left or right, and they are not afraid of twisting the truth.
Yes, you're right... as a consequence of the polarization of the society, finding an unbiased source of information is very hard... there are bloggers and news agencies financed by the government or by private capital, giving only one side of the story or outright lying. Besides, even without an agenda, most people have "chosen sides", so the bias is inevitable. I myself am not completely unbiased, but I think I can be critic of both sides and I'm very well informed, but of course I have my opinion too...
Quote:
Correct me if I'm wrong but as I understood the opposition is planning to leave OPEC abandon their production quota. I believe this is one of the main reasons for the US support. While this might give temporarily relief, it also means that Venezuela will deplete its resources faster. I wonder whether that would be in the best interest of Venezuela. It might be something to consider.
Well, I am by no means an expert in the oil industry field. But there's the feeling that Venezuela has lost influence and power in the OPEC. Besides, PDVSA is having a hard time trying to produce its production quota, and the opposition thinks that is consequence of mismanagement.
The thing is that the focus right now is in recovering the market share and increasing revenues; the country is in such a political and economical crisis that I don't think many people are concerned about peak oil at all! maybe you're right, and the low production rate of Venezuela is going to be good for the country in the future... something to consider, really. But the country is very busy right now to think about peak oil, and that can make things worse, when the shock comes...
I am interested in the opinion of the experts in this forum... what do you think about the future of Venezuela, in the light of peak oil? should that be a new topic? _________________ Regards,
Arraitz
Venezuela appears to have peaked in 1997. According to the EIA the depletion rate in existing fields runs at 25% annually, despite heavy gas injection. The overall depletion rate is 1.75% a year.
So no matter what, the conventional oil production is going to fall. Right now the question is how you can develope the remaining resources in the most profitable way.
I would be especially cautious about bringing outside investment into the oil industry. It will create an extra money drain. There is also a risk that thew will bring-in their own experts, thereby undermining the education and development in the country.
On the bright side there is the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt oil belt and natural gas. I think that could be a great asset in the future. But you have to realise that that can never make up for the production losses in conventional.
But Venezuela is going to be a top ten producer for many years to come. The revenues that Venezuela gets from oil are in the same order of magnitude as Mexico, Canada, Kuwait etc.
I think the main question should be: "where is that money going?" instead of "how can we get more?". The main task becomes then to find that money and channel it towards diversifying the economy. This has to be done since the oil production will keep declining.
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Sat Jul 24, 2004 3:37 pm Post subject: Thanks for the intelligent discussion
Arraitz & smiley, I appreciate your discussion - it begins to illuminate the darkness that surrounds the Venezuela situation here in America. As you can tell from my initial post, I was not happy with what I found with Google, and this is the most diverse information that many people will see.
Just as I suspected, it sounds like Chavez is leading the nation down the path to a left-wing autocratic rule with a national oil company remaining in charge of the petroleum sector. And of course. the U.S. wants a right-wing autocratic ruler that would allow privitization of the oil industry, cut off Cuba and be a U.S. puppet giving vast profits to U.S. companies.
Arraitz, what ever happened to Pedro Carmona, the 2-day president of the 2002 coup? Is he still in Venezuela?
Arraitz, what ever happened to Pedro Carmona, the 2-day president of the 2002 coup? Is he still in Venezuela?
Carmona now lives in exile, in Colombia I think.
I'm sure that the US government would want a right-wing leader in the country, but I'm not so sure of the implication of the CIA or any other US organization in events like the april 11th coup and countercoup.
Please, anybody interested in an insight of what really happened those days in Venezuela, read this summary:
It's a bit long, but please take the time to read it. Although the author is biased against the government, he did made the effort of sticking to the facts, and he's critic of both the opposition and the government. Please don't dismiss it as propaganda!
There are now books on the subject, but I don't think there are any in english.
smiley,
Quote:
I think the main question should be: "where is that money going?" instead of "how can we get more?". The main task becomes then to find that money and channel it towards diversifying the economy. This has to be done since the oil production will keep declining
This is a long going debate in Venezuela, since a famous writer said that Venezuela needs to begin "sowing the oil", back in the 1936. I think you hit the nail right on the head, smiley, that is what the country must do, and it must be done quickly since the production appears to have peaked, like you pointed out. _________________ Regards,
Arraitz
Seeing as the principal opposition is the moneyed class, funny that we can afford $5 million to encourage "democracy" by further lining their pockets!
Untl recently, I had a hard time realizing that Chavez is a demagogue with little respect for institutions or individual rights; I can't sympathize with a leader who crushes the middle class as he has been doing.
Venezuela's infant mortality rate is currently the equivalent of pre-Castro Cuba, 5 times as deadly. When I was a kid in Florida, I knew a great many Cubans who had their lives upended and all but ruined by Castro. Who is to say whether Cuba's infant mortality rate -- now tied with Canada for lowest in the world at 6 per 1000 -- doesn't justify such things?
I wouldn't say it does, but I am not the arbiter. _________________ http://www.openspeech.org - please visit and post!
The real crime of Chavez is to turn his back on western style capitalism
He is not a perfect democrat but neither are most of the elected leaders in south america
He will be in a good position after peak oil because around the world we will see a complete re-evaluation of consumer capitalism
This can only be a good thing, I just hope we end up with more democracy
There is no reason democracy can't exist without capitalism
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:27 am Post subject:
MSN's Slate Magazine is doing a series of "Dispatches from Venezuela," where they send someone in to live in an environment for a week. Gives you from the street opinions, and political history. http://slate.msn.com/id/2105063/entry/2105064/ The Friday piece talks about the failed coup and opposition. _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
Joined: May 15, 2004 Posts: 253 Location: Southeast USA
Posted: Sat Aug 14, 2004 6:56 am Post subject: True
The Greeks and romans had some semblance of democracy without oil I suppose. I personally don't know much about Chavez. I don't know that much about Castro either for that matter. It doesn't seem like Castro ever did anything wrong other than to start a communist government, and we've been out to kill him for the last 4 decades. But above all else, yes, the US shouldn't get involved if a country is going to fairly vote on their leaders. I know I wouldn't appreciate it if someone messed with our elections this November. _________________ In the long run, men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, though they should fail immediately, they had better aim at something high.-Thoreau
Peak Oil
I toured an oil refinery recently that has contracts for oil from Venezuela. Apparently they have sizable amounts of sour crude, which this refinery is tooled to process. This is an apparent trend in refining processes, favoring sour crude feedstock because sweet crude is so pricey.
This represents a big problem for gasoline production, since they get less straight line gasoline from cracking sour crude compared to sweet. Interestingly, because of EPA guidelines, companies don't build new refineries in the US, but rather retool existing older facilities. (It's cheaper, but also more polluting). When they do the math, profits from refining sour crude at a lower price, are greater than profits from refining sweet crude. So we have a bottleneck for gasoline stocks which will drive pump prices upwards. (look for gasoline pump price increases soon). _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
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