I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 7:51 am Post subject: Russia again fails to replace oil reserves
Russian oil companies failed to replace oil reserves in 2004, with newly discovered deposits representing only 72 percent of output, Moscow News reports.
Russian Natural Resources Ministry official Sergei Fyodorov said Friday that in 2004 Russia added 330 million tons in new reserves, but put out 458 million tons with existing reserves.
Between 1999-2003 the average rate of reserve replacement was 85 percent of output, but Russian oil output has more than doubled since 1999. Additionally, in the last few months oil industry growth has been hampered by several factors including tax increases and the fall of Yukos.
Russia has the world's seventh largest oil reserves of 69 billion barrels.
link
Joined: Feb 16, 2005 Posts: 251 Location: Siberia of Canada
Posted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:02 pm Post subject: Re: Russia again fails to replace oil reserves
NTBKtrader wrote:
Between 1999-2003 the average rate of reserve replacement was 85 percent of output, but Russian oil output has more than doubled since 1999.
Looks to me like most of the news about Russian oil industry are either lies or distortions of the truth. Russia did not "more than double" oil output since 1999. The output grew from 6.1mbpd to 9.2mbpd.
I suspect, other countries with a tight goverment control of the oil production are lying the same way. So we really do not have any credible accurate data on the reserves and maybe on the extraction and exports either.
Shoot!...i have a road trip planned for August...hmmm
Quote:
The world oil price could grow to $80-100 per barrel by late August, Vasily Petrov, an expert from the Russian Center of Strategic Developments said on Friday, May 20. The forecast was published in Russia’s Independent Gazette (Nezavisimoya Gazeta) political daily.
The oil industry is experiencing a bear market, as oil prices plunged to their three-month low in secondary trading. Oil prices reached their first peak in September 2004, after which they declined. A second peak was registered in March. Petrov says that the third peak could come in late summer, as China is expected to sharply increase its demand for electric power and will require a large amount of oil to process it into diesel fuel.
CHina to blame...is there a tie in with the rush for Chinese currency revaluation here?
Oil prices reached their first peak in September 2004, after which they declined. A second peak was registered in March. Petrov says that the third peak could come in late summer, as China is expected to sharply increase its demand for electric power and will require a large amount of oil to process it into diesel fuel.
...which would support the idea that we're on a plateau.
Quote:
Nevertheless, the United States is trying in every possible way to restrain the upsurge in China’s growth
Hehehe.
Quote:
That is why I do not see any strong prerequisites for growth, like in the situation when oil prices leaped to $60 per barrel. At that time, there was uncertainty in the Far East and the dynamics of China’s demand was unclear. Besides, the U.S. petroleum stocks had declined significantly. Today they are growing and there are no reasons for any anxiety,” Belashov said.
Oi! Good to know there's no more uncertainty in the Far East OR Mid East and that China's economy is going to stop growing! And who'd a thunk that getting rid of some of our oil reserves eight years ago would've have driven the price of oil up this year?
The faithful readers of po.com are fully aware of the issues of demand in this time frame:
Quote:
It takes about six weeks for a shipping container full of cheap plastic toys to make it via container ship from China to the Eastern US.
It takes a couple of weeks for a Chinese factory to get in a shipment of polyethylene and convert it into cheap toys.
It takes another couple of weeks for a Chinese refinery to receive a tanker of crude oil and turn it into polyethylene or PVC.
It takes about five weeks to ship a container of crude oil from Basra to Shanghai, through the Straits of Malaka.
All of the above if everything runs perfectly on the paperwork, no typhoons or quarantines or dock strikes.
So, 6+2+2+5=15 weeks so the Chinese crude oil buyers will be looking for product in about mid-July or beginning of August so as to be able to deliver Christmas on time, about November 15th-December 8th.
This is about the third thing I've heard about a spike in oil prices coming either this summer or next fall/winter. I had hoped that we would have some time to get ready for a high energy world. I thought the real pain would be around 2007 or 2008, but I've been reading a lot about it coming much sooner.
Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:04 am Post subject: Russia warns UK of 'serious consequences'
why is this is Energy news? Well I'm assuming that the 'serious consequences' will be the turning off of UK natural gas supplies (?)
And as Russian intelligence read po.com, maybe they could forewarn their peak oiler comrades?
Quote:
The Kremlin has warned Britain it faces "serious consequences" after expelling four Russian diplomats from the UK.
The move followed Moscow's refusal to hand over the former KGB agent accused of murdering Alexander Litvinenko in London last year.
Suspect Andrei Lugovoi, who denies involvement, claimed the charges against him had a "political subtext". But Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain will make "no apologies" for expelling the four Russians.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3867 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:32 am Post subject: Re: Russia warns UK of 'serious consequences'
In this context serious consequences usually means Russia would expel a few UK diplomats, things don't get so hot and heavy so fast as you think or we would constantly be having wars. I don't mean little skirmishes like Afganistan, I mean wars like WW I or the Crimean War. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:42 am Post subject: Re: Russia warns UK of 'serious consequences'
mkwin wrote:
We don't get any natural gas from Russia and we intend on keeping it that way.
Where does all that gas from the Dutch and Belgium pipelines come from? Last I checked Belgium didn't extract much gas... _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
Joined: Oct 22, 2005 Posts: 709 Location: European Capital of Kulcha 2008
Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:31 am Post subject: Re: Russia warns UK of 'serious consequences'
Sadly, it seems this little spat isn't much more than shop-window sabre-rattling for the masses. Behind the facade, Russia isn't likely to act punitively against the UK in any way that might undermine the potential profits and gains to be had from having Gazprom continue to vacuum up British assets. From the UK's standpoint, what can it possibly threaten Russia with? Trade sanctions? Military action?
' . . . With North Sea oil and gas in decline, imports from Norway will pick up some of the slack, but in the longer term Britain and much of western Europe will become increasingly dependent on Russia. This has put Gazprom in a powerful position. So influential has Gazprom become that critics talk of Russia's "pipeline troops" or "gas guerillas". Moscow is no longer a military superpower. But this resource-rich country is fast becoming an energy superpower.
Mark Spelman, head of global strategy at the consultancy Accenture, says: "I don't think that we recognise the pace at which things are going to move over the next four to five years. "In the middle of the next decade we will suddenly wake up and say to ourselves: wow, look at how many assets Gazprom owns," he said.
The company is already targeting the UK. Gazprom owns 10pc of the interconnector pipeline between Belgium and Britain, ensuring it can get gas into the UK. And the proposed Nord Stream pipeline through Germany and Holland into the UK, will provide even more gas. Last year, Gazprom bought a UK energy retailer, Pennine Natural Gas, which supplies industrial users such as Headingley Cricket Ground, and is it now targeting NHS hospitals.
Gazprom also has a thriving UK-based trading arm, dealing in gas, oil, and emissions credits. According to one source: "There was a time when Gazprom seemed to be in Ofgem's office [the regulator] every other day trying to understand how the UK energy market worked." link
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 69 Location: Maastricht, the Netherlands
Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Russia warns UK of 'serious consequences'
I dont think Russia can selectively cut off gas to one country. Look what happened last year with the Ukrain. To cut off gas to them they had to cut off gas to other parts of Europe as well.
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