Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Jul 17, 2004 Posts: 490 Location: Amerika (most of the time)
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:22 pm Post subject:
trespam wrote:
But....
The perspective is also a severely negative indictment of the American people. That they are so selfish that they will consume other people--figuratively--in order to maintain their way of life. I just don't see that.
I know many people are in fact appalled at our way of life. These are not greens. These are every day people, working for living, who are amazed at how much we consume.
So there may be hope. The American people are turning on the war in Iraq and if they knew it was for oil, no matter what the reason, I think they would turn faster.
I couldn't agree with you more. I've been all around the world and people for the most part are honest and decent. My problem is not with Joe Public per se but with the real money and power in this country. Those people will not easily cede power and/or influence and plus they control the main avenues of information. We are talking about huge sums of money here and we all know that money can buy you alot of power in this country.
Even though I hope this won't be true, I can totally see our leaders whipping up the American public into a frenzy over "terrorism" or whatever and using that as a pretense to send poor kids to secure resources. It's already happening in Iraq. So I guess when I say the American way of life is non-negotiable, I'm saying the upper to upper middle class way of life is going to die real hard.
You can see US reluctance to think sensibly about the oil situation in the controversy over drilling in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge. Kerry's a traitor for not voting for it, because it would make us "energy independent."
The right wingers say there's 16 billion barrels of oil there. Well, actually what the EIA said is there's a 5% chance of that much oil...much more likely a third of that amount.
But whatever it is, let's dig it up and squander it right now on SUV's, half-empty airliners and especially unnecessary wars halfway around the world...
It's like you've just lost your job, your wife is pregnant -- hey, grab the VISA card and take off for Vegas! Except, in Vegas, you can win.
I think it has little to do with Americans being obsessed with consumption, any more or less than any other group of people. The US is simply the most economically successful in a field crowded with wannabe consuming giants. So we stick out as mass consumers.
The free market is responsible I think.
Markets must grow... or what's the point? If my investment has no chance at getting bigger over time, why invest at all?
My current car costs approximately what my parents house cost when first purchased 30+ years ago.
This works as long as we have the energy wealth to sustain the growth... after that... not so much.
If we are expecting people anywhere to voluntarily live far beneath their means... we may have a long wait. In America, Europe, or anywhere. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: America the new Roman empire
trespam wrote:
marek wrote:
claim falls apart). In other words, economists base their statements on models the assumptions of which are grossly violated in the real world. The problem is, very few economists have had a history of economic thought course and do not know that. Sometimes they are even aware of the situation, but once you get a Ph.D. and are employed by the WTO, the World Bank or Deloitte Touche, it would be a suicide to tell the truth.[/u]
Sounds like economics is heavily infected with ideology. And it calls itself a science? I'm a physicists by training, and certainly physics has had some wrong turns in the past, but to me the economists embracing of some ideas sounds equivalent to the russians opposing plate tectonics. Or Bush refusing the guidance of his science advisors.
Faith-based. Ugh.
Economics is the study of the distribution of finite resources in society. Econ departments are in the Business College of most schools, not Arts and Sciences, like chemistry, physics, etc. I think its more of a social science. Since the distribution of resources is affected greatly by our political system, economics and politics are closely related, too. I guess the danger of economics is when economic theories are used like physical laws that always hold - "free trade is always good", etc., and when economics is seen as an end to itself - it speaks to distribution of resources, but not the physical limits of those resources.
I think it has little to do with Americans being obsessed with consumption, any more or less than any other group of people. The US is simply the most economically successful in a field crowded with wannabe consuming giants. So we stick out as mass consumers.
I disagree. Oh, no doubt a lot of other people in the world wanna be us, but it's not just our economic success that's to blame. We still have that frontier attitude. Very individualistic. It served us well when there was oil to burn, but it may come back to bite us when the good times are over.
People in other developed nations - England, France, Germany, Japan, even Canada - are a lot more civic-minded. They think of society, not the individual. They don't blink at the idea of gun control. They pay a lot more taxes than we do, and gripe about it a lot less. Their governments are able to take steps to prepare, while ours can't. Japan built lots of nuclear power plants, even though being bombed during WWII left the population leery of radiation. Europe is switching more and more to wind power, and routinely taxes gasoline at a much higher rate than the U.S. in order to encourage conservation and fund research into renewables. They do things like ratify the Kyoto Agreement, and it's no big deal.
It's a lot harder here. We don't want "big government." And "international interference" is even worse. Freedom means I can do what I whatever I want. If you need government help, you must be lazy. Honestly, sometimes I think American politics, especially the right wing, is the last bastion of John Wayne style-machismo. Rugged individuals, the lot of us. It was okay when there was 50 miles or more between log cabins, but the country's getting more and more crowded. More people = less freedom. And we have a hard time accepting that.
I was not putting down Americans in particular. We've been the pioneers down this road. Thanks to our errors, the Chinese won't "suburbanize" as we did -- which we only did because General Motors wanted to sell cars and the Feds wanted to build highways.
We never thought about "sustainable prosperity," just "propsperity." Now, if we think for 2 seconds a day about succeeding generations, sustainability is important. But most Americans are still asleep to this. The rude awakening has barely started.
More and more people will see this as things get worse. I think those of us who already know how important sustainability is have to knuckle down and take responsibility for protecting things like the last US oil find. Leaving that oil in the ground probably will make things a hell of a lot easier for our kids, maybe our grandkids. _________________ http://www.openspeech.org - please visit and post!
I think the American way of life is wrongly perceived to be what is presentd in mass media today, the extravagance of SUV's, frequent use of air travel and a host of major applicances like central air and jacuzzis, etc.
But that is not the "real" America, at least as I see it.
Aren't American values equally at home with mass transit, bicycles, porches in summer instead of a refrigerated interior lifestyle and the use of trains vs. planes, if it comes to that?
People adapt to reality around them. Our forebearers were no less "American" for being without some of the luxuries we take for granted today. They gardened more, they dressed warmer in winter, they walked a lot more and used mass transit a lot more. They were no less American for it all, perhaps they were closer to the values of self-reliance and autonomy that the founders intended.
My problem is not with Joe Public per se but with the real money and power in this country. Those people will not easily cede power and/or influence and plus they control the main avenues of information. We are talking about huge sums of money here and we all know that money can buy you a lot of power in this country.
I think this is a factor that is significantly underrated in any post peak scenario. Unless this energy problem is solvable and we figure out how to solve it, I think the most likely scenario is also the most unpleasant.
The American way of life will remain non-negotiable, even though, as one poster put it, there is no way to avoid negotiating with nature. The same money and power that has convinced us that we have a responsibility to consume and pursue an impossible dream won't stop manipulating us just because the dream becomes more impossible with each passing year.
They will convince us that the chocolate ration is not going down. They will convince us that prosperity is just around the next corner and we will stick with that story all the way down. We will blame any one of several scapegoats while we wait for recovery and there will be a new scapegoat trotted out for every setback.
And we will pretend and endure, accepting a forced powerdown because most will realize that self deception is far better than the alternative. Anarchy? Civil war? Accept the idea of a bleak future forever? Revolt against all that power and money? There are no good options.
Those who refuse to deceive themselves, those who resist, will be ruthlessly purged. Everyone else will agree that Big Brother will eventually prevail over the forces who are determined to destroy the American way of life. While we wait for total victory over the enemies of freedom, the dream of a return to the American way of life will sustain us.
While most of us live in a grinding poverty, a lucky few will continue to consume the good life. Naturally, Horatio Alger will stay alive. There will be lots of stories on TV about proles who work really hard and pull themselves up by the bootstraps and move into the gated communities as a member of the inner party.
If the population requires a reduction to maintain rations above starvation levels, Osama will set off a device that levels Los Angeles or something. (That will be just awful but anyone who thinks destroying Los Angeles will break the American spirit or destroy the American way of life has another thought coming.)
Two plus two isn't always four. As long as Fox News and Kudlow and Cramer are there to tell us whether two plus two equals a little more than three or very nearly five, we'll be just fine. (Prediction: Power and cable companies will merge. Whenever the power is on, people will get free TV.)
It could be worse, everyone will agree. The only answer is a little more sacrifice, a little more ruthlessness. We will eventually prevail because our hearts are pure and our cause is just. Times are really hard, but the tide has turned. Give us the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness or give us death.
Believe that with all your heart or risk being declared insane.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:55 pm Post subject:
Canuck wrote:
big_rc wrote:
My problem is not with Joe Public per se but with the real money and power in this country. Those people will not easily cede power and/or influence and plus they control the main avenues of information. We are talking about huge sums of money here and we all know that money can buy you a lot of power in this country.
I think this is a factor that is significantly underrated in any post peak scenario. Unless this energy problem is solvable and we figure out how to solve it, I think the most likely scenario is also the most unpleasant.
Believe that with all your heart or risk being declared insane.
It is non-negotiable.
I'm not convinced. I could very well make an argument for the opposite case, that america heads towards a more socialized form of government similar to what happened after the great depression.
Yeah, I know, we've got a lot of powerful corporations, yet presidents fall, corporations falls, etc.
My bigger fear regarding peak oil is that (a) the economic system melts down and everything I've worked for (e.g. investments) are lost and (b) civil insurrection as the tide falls, grounding a lot of boats. That's why I'll go with the social form of government over the tyranical. I don't think at this point a convincing argument can be made that we'd head in the tyranical direction.
Whatever government we have, we will make our lives the best we can.
The less organized and efficient the (left or right) government is, the more control and self-sufficiency we will likely have over our own communities and social organizations.
People who cross the governemnt, or who are randomly noticed by the government, will have a less happy life than those who go unnoticed.
I'm not convinced. I could very well make an argument for the opposite case, that america heads towards a more socialized form of government similar to what happened after the great depression.
I think it will almost surely do this too. Socialism is not inconsistent with tyranny. Unemployment will explode. If people start starving, there will be fighting in the streets. Therefore the money and power will redistribute enough resources to keep the poorest at a subsistence level. Over time I would would expect more and more people to fall into this group.
When shortages become chronic I expect rationing and it is hard to imagine anything more socialist than rationing. But no matter how socialist the country becomes, the rhetoric won't change a bit.
Aren't American values equally at home with mass transit, bicycles, porches in summer instead of a refrigerated interior lifestyle and the use of trains vs. planes, if it comes to that?
No. At least, not any more. The car is as American as apple pie. Only a few eastern cities have decent mass transit systems. And the trend is toward back porches, not front porches, because people don't want to see passers-by. Even malls and movie theaters in small towns now have air-conditioning. And so do cars.
Could we adjust to the ways of our ancestors? Sure...but the question is "Will we?" This isn't Cuba. There's no dictator to force conservation and ration food. Instead, the wealthy will continue to live the high life, and the poor and middle class will grow increasingly resentful because they can't.
[quote]This "American" arrogance is going to be our downfall if we allow it to continue any longer.[/qupte]I think you can lose the words if we allow it to continue any longer. It's fairly obvious that we're not going to change our ways.
P.S. I see ANWR as the ultimate "strategic reserve". We'll bicker and bicker about it, but once it becomes obvious that oil is in decline, it will be explioted. The longer we wait the better.
And the trend is toward back porches, not front porches, because people don't want to see passers-by.
New Urbanism is an up and coming trend, back to walkable streets, front porches, old fashoned real communitites. And New Urbanist developments are wonderful!
People in other developed nations - England, France, Germany, Japan, even Canada - are a lot more civic-minded.
That is certainly how they are portrayed...
And in some places perhaps even accurate.
But then we don't need every citizen of a given country to be greedy consuming pigs do we? The wealth gap does the damage I think.
The concentration of money in the hands of a very few... & the worm turns.
If your country is an economic bystander, (like many European countries), then fine... I agree. But for the serious competitors, it's about winning.
Remember, the winner is the one with the most toys when they die. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
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