Disputing alternative energies.(PULLING MY HAIR OUT!!)

Cyrus · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 25, 2005 Posts: 608

Ok, I'm making this post because when I do post in the "Energy Technology" forum on the likelyhood of alternative energies saving us, I get an almost evenly split response and do not know what to believe! Some people are saying 20 years from now, we will look back on peak oil running biodisel in our cars, and getting electrical energy from wind plants, and wonder why we worried. Others are talking of a dieoff, depopulation of cities, economical collapse, etc. I really don't know what to believe!! Can someone truely and surely debunk either of the things I have listed without biast, propeganda, unsupported information, independent press released, etc..JUST THE FACTS PLEASE!

Your response is greatly appreciated.

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4977

May I suggest:

Overshoot by William Catton
Collapse by Jared Diamond
The Long Emergency by Kunstler
The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg
The End of Oil : On the Edge of a Perilous New World by Roberts
Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage by Deffeyes
The Coming Oil Crisis by Campbell

After reading these books you will, in my opinion, have the answer you need.
_________________
Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! new_popcornsmiley

NeoPeasant · Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 8:32 pm Post subject:

There is a lot of inflated hyperbola about the viability of some alternative energy source or vehicle design or other motivated by the quest for government grant money and subsidies for research, and the desire to lure investors; often for some sort of pump-and-dump internet stock scam.
And there are those who so desperately want things to remain the way they are that they believe all the hype with a religious fervor.

I started down the path of a more self-sufficient, less energy dependent lifestyle about a year ago out of fear of an oil crash. Funny thing is I found it was a more fulfilling, meaningful, sensible way of life. So if the scientists pull some miracle out of their asses and find some way to synthesize cheap abundant motor fuel, I think I'll just keep living this way. And if the almost certain energy crash comes, I will just keep on living much as I do now.

RonMN · Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 9:41 pm Post subject:

Here ya go. When we get old oil from taco bell & use it for biodiesel, it's an oil BONUS (because it was just oil that was gonna be thown away anyway).

But if we're going to plant soy or rape seed to make fuel oil...then we need to factor in how much oil it took to run the machines (to grow the plants)...the oil for the herbicides & pesticides and nat-gas for fertalizer...once you figure all that in for growing the plants, we actually LOOSE energy or break even (because farming is also based on cheap oil).

The fact is we just don't eat enough french fries to think we can replace our massive fuel usage from waste oil. And if we try to "grow" our own oil...well, would you invest a dollar if you knew you were only going to get back a dollar? why bother investing it?

ProdigalMoon · Coal Joined: Mar 31, 2005 Posts: 7

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4031

ProdigalMoon, your answer is perfect. It's very, very, very hard to predict the future. The only safe prediction is that it will be somewhere between the rosy scenario (everything will run so smoothly people will barely notice) and the doomer scenario (dieoff, etc).

If you ask what seems to be the most favoured scenario among experts, it seems to be that things will get tough, but not end-of-the-world. That's what Colin Campbell et al. are saying in Peak Oil conferences.

Vexed · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 460

"There are no facts, only interpretations."
Nietzche

However, "Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk."
Thoreau

I would argue there is a huge trout flapping around in the milk bucket these days.

Whether you see that enormous trout, or ascribe any meaning to it, is up to you.

But from your post Cyrus, I wonder if you are looking for knowledge, or for the safety of certainty. They are two very different things.

Pops