Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Something I read in an earlier post, was the issue that perhaps right now is maybe not Peak Oil, but a true problem of demand starting to outstrip supply - two potentially separate issues.
True peak oil production may indeed be 2008, but right now it's the demand (from China, notably - 40% rise this year!!!!) and others, coupled with a supply drop from former net-producers changing to net-importers that is excacebating the problem. While I believe that not only are we actually IN Peak Oil (not 2008), it's a double-whammy (and more) with demand starting to outstrip even current peak production.
I think all the factors are converging. World oil production has remained pretty flat for the past 3 years. _________________ "If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"George W. Bush loves poor people. He keeps making more of them." -unkn
What we are really seeing is just the run down of spare capacity.
You can't hit peak if you still have spare capacity, right?
But we've really just run it down recently.
However, once you run down spare capacity, speculation enters the fundamentals calculation for an oil price.
So what we are seeing is surely one necessary step toward peak.
I'm not convinced the world economy can keep going with oil prices at $45+. Though I must admit, trying to find specific info about this is difficult. Most analysts seem to think it would take much higher prices, eg. $60, to really hit the world econ. hard.
If the world econ doesn't crap itself, peak may well come soon. 1, 2, 3 years? Hold on to your hats.
I don't see a problem with a University degree if you don' t take on debt. (NO student loans ya hear?) Try to go for a relavent post peak major. _________________ With Love to all, and Malice to none.
"A people is conquered not when they lose a war, but when they adopt the song and customs of the enemy"
-Chacham S
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 435 Location: Hiding from the All-Seeing Eye
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:35 pm Post subject:
Sencha,
I'm a college grad. and I also have worked for the Federal Govt. as well (in a department that has since been moved under the Department of Homeland Security) and it's almost impossible in the current economy (no matter what crap Dubya is spinning) to find something unless you go into the medical field.
Well, the medical field would be a good choice then, peak or no peak. You don't have to be a doctor. You could be an EMT, nurse, physician's assistant, orderly, midwife, etc.
Investment guru, Jim Rogers, multi-millionaire and co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has some interesting tips about how to approach the future in his latest book. He says:
Teach your children to speak Mandarin, the coming language of the 21st century. And don't encourage them to do an MBA: "Tell them to be a farmer and do a real job."
Joined: Jun 21, 2004 Posts: 413 Location: Massachusetts
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:15 pm Post subject:
Wow...so its really going to be that bad?
My father is in the medical field, and from what I've learned from him, that's not an option for me.
I couldn't blacksmith if my life depended on it.
I'm not fighting an energy war.
I knew it, I've got the next two years to cram in as much EverQuest II as possible and call it a life. I figure once I graduate, or the crash hits, whichever one comes first, its over for me.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:20 pm Post subject:
Sencha wrote:
I knew it, I've got the next two years to cram in as much EverQuest II as possible and call it a life. I figure once I graduate, or the crash hits, whichever one comes first, its over for me.
I have a couple recommendations:
1. Whatever you are studying, dive into it with gusto. The world will always need competent people. I think the college experience is beneficial (physicist/engineer), even if I end up a farmer.
2. Nobody knows how this will play out. Nobody knows when peak will happen. It could be in 2010 for all we know, and we are just running into a local production limit that will be overcome.
3. The economy may lower it's oil consumption by 30% for all we know afer running into this local maxima. Not the best of times. But would you want to be Jewish in Germany WWII time period, a Russian under seige by the Germans, a Chinese citizen under attack by the Japanese, etc. Sometimes life sucks but so far we've just got a bunch of rampant speculation of how this will play out. Noone can tell you for sure.
Focus on the now while still planning for the future. Educate yourself on how we might organize a new world that has less energy.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:13 pm Post subject:
Sencha wrote:
I knew it, I've got the next two years to cram in as much EverQuest II as possible and call it a life. I figure once I graduate, or the crash hits, whichever one comes first, its over for me.
I have a couple recommendations:
1. Whatever you are studying, dive into it with gusto. The world will always need competent people. I think the college experience is beneficial (physicist/engineer), even if I end up a farmer.
2. Nobody knows how this will play out. Nobody knows when peak will happen. It could be in 2010 for all we know, and we are just running into a local production limit that will be overcome.
3. The economy may lower it's oil consumption by 30% for all we know afer running into this local maxima. Not the best of times. But would you want to be Jewish in Germany WWII time period, a Russian under seige by the Germans, a Chinese citizen under attack by the Japanese, etc. Sometimes life sucks but so far we've just got a bunch of rampant speculation of how this will play out. Noone can tell you for sure.
Focus on the now while still planning for the future. Educate yourself on how we might organize a new world that has less energy.
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