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Hegel Heavy Crude


Joined: Jul 18, 2004 Posts: 139 Location: Germany
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 8:24 am Post subject: Peak Uranium - Status of Uranium |
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The writing is on the wall.
Status of Uranium
Notice 2003 production vs. requirements  _________________ Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
Current Doomerosity Level (Jaymax Scale): 5 |
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Licho Intermediate Crude


Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 8:38 am Post subject: |
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Well there is nothing abnormal in it - there is no point mining too much..
If some countries can mine it at cheaper price, they do it and rest buys it..
And btw - actual annual mining is more than 2x lower than annual requirements - it's because fuel is mixed with old nuclear weapons into mox.. |
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Devil Intermediate Crude


Joined: Jul 06, 2004 Posts: 838 Location: Cyprus
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 9:06 am Post subject: |
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Not to mention that most of Europe and Japan recycles its fuel. _________________ Devil |
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MicroHydro Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Apr 10, 2005 Posts: 1286
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 9:37 am Post subject: |
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The March ASPO newsletter discussed uranium. It would take 20,000 one gigawatt plants to make enough hydrogen to replace oil as a transportation fuel. If we could do that, we would run out out uranium reserves with positive EROEI in seven years. _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel |
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Dezakin Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Feb 09, 2005 Posts: 1354
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | The March ASPO newsletter discussed uranium. It would take 20,000 one gigawatt plants to make enough hydrogen to replace oil as a transportation fuel. If we could do that, we would run out out uranium reserves with positive EROEI in seven years. |
Really? You show me your numbers and I'll show you mine. Seems like I do this every week.
For fun I'll assume we build 20,000 one gigawatt nuke plants. Lets actually use my number in another thread which is 5 times as big to give everyone on the planet an american style life, 100000 reactors.
Now you can run a 1 GW reactor on about 1 ton of nuclear fuel per year. So you need about 20,000 tons per year of nuclear fuel.
Lets look at the average uranium and thorium in the crust: estimates of uranium I've seen are about 2.5 ppm for the earths crust, and for thorium its about 10 ppm.
If we are only focusing on the continental crust thats .374% of the earths mass, so .00374 * 5.9742 * 10^24, gives you about 2.79 *10^14 metric tons of nuclear fuel.
This gives you 10^9 years of nuclear fuel. We regularly mine gold at far lower concentrations that 1ppm at a profit so its not unreasonable to assume that we can do the same with uranium and thorium.
You'll have to attack nuclear power from a different angle than fuel avaliability.
Just for fun, tell me where you got that 'we would run out out uranium reserves with positive EROEI in seven years.' number. We can pull that apart too. |
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Tyler_JC Moderator


Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4422 Location: Boston, MA
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 2:41 pm Post subject: |
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Gold is not an energy source. When we mine gold, we don't care how much energy we expend finding it.
Low quality uranium has a very poor EROEI compared to current nuclear fuel. Nuclear plants will become an energy sink if we must use extremely low quality uranium ore mined in very small quantities from the core of the Earth. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
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clv101 Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | | Low quality uranium has a very poor EROEI compared to current nuclear fuel. Nuclear plants will become an energy sink if we must use extremely low quality uranium ore mined in very small quantities from the core of the Earth. |
Indeed, most uranium can't be mined with good enough EROEI so it isn't a source of energy.
This article covers the idea that turning to nuclear in the future is a fruitless exercise due to lack of uranium: No More Uranium _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe |
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DriveElectric Intermediate Crude


Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 639
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: |
Low quality uranium has a very poor EROEI compared to current nuclear fuel. Nuclear plants will become an energy sink if we must use extremely low quality uranium ore mined in very small quantities from the core of the Earth. |
If nuclear breeder reactors produce more fuel than used, doesn't that make the EROEI (the silliest unit of measurment) infinity? |
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Tyler_JC Moderator


Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4422 Location: Boston, MA
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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How is EROEI "silly"?
Wood has a relatively low EROEI and energy density. That's why wood burning cultures never built space ships. Coal has a much higher EROEI and energy density than wood, but oil has the best EROEI numbers. I have 1 ton of wood and 1 ton of oil. Which should I use? The oil.
I have 1 btu of energy.
I want to get more energy.
What should I harvest?
1. Coal with an EROEI of 3 to 1
2. Oil with an EROEI of 6 to 1
If you answered oil, you are correct.
I'm not sure why this concept is so difficult to understand. If a reactor can produce more fuel than it uses, it is breaking the second law of thermodynamics. It is physically (ya know, those unbreakable lwas) impossible to create energy. We can only use energy. We are using the sun's energy stored in wood/oil/coal to run our civilization. Don't give me a website that says that breeder reactors are possible. Give me the name of the man (or woman) who won a Noble Prize for changing the laws of physics. If that guy (or gal) doesn't exist, breedor reactors are still compling with the laws of this universe and aren't "producing" energy. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Last edited by Tyler_JC on Tue May 31, 2005 6:21 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Cyrus Intermediate Crude


Joined: Jan 25, 2005 Posts: 608
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | If nuclear breeder reactors produce more fuel than used, doesn't that make the EROEI (the silliest unit of measurment) infinity? |
Breader reactors have already been discussed on the forum. Search accordingly. |
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Licho Intermediate Crude


Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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Tyler_jc, read http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic7692.html
You will find reasons why EROEI is close to useless and incomparable there..
And breeders really produce more ammount of usefull fuel from lesser ammount
Thats why they are called breeders.. such reactors are around for more than 50 years..
Of course nothing is "created" the point is that there is plenty of energy.. in molecular bonds, in strong atomic forces, even in vacuum itself, we can use some and cant use other, breeders are just making it usefull for us.. they are converting non-fissionable isotopes to fissionable..
1cm^3 of vacuum contains enough energy to vaporize all oceans on Earth .. but of course we cant extract it 
Last edited by Licho on Tue May 31, 2005 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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DriveElectric Intermediate Crude


Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 639
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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I refer to EROEI as silly because it is been discredited as useless unit of measurement in numerous threads.
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1. Coal with an EROEI of 3 to 1
2. Oil with an EROEI of 6 to 1
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If you want to start the EROEI debate again, define how you arrived at those figures for EROEI for coal and oil. What were the inputs that ultimately defined EROEI for your calculations. |
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Dezakin Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Feb 09, 2005 Posts: 1354
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Gold is not an energy source. When we mine gold, we don't care how much energy we expend finding it. |
Of course we care. If we must spend more energy than the market value, its not worth it. The cost of nuclear power is very insensitive to the cost of nuclear fuel, and in breeder reactors 140 times less sensitive than even the once through fuel cycle.
We can produce cost effective energy from nuclear power plants even when uranium is as costly as gold, and so the comparison is valid.
| Quote: | | Low quality uranium has a very poor EROEI compared to current nuclear fuel. Nuclear plants will become an energy sink if we must use extremely low quality uranium ore mined in very small quantities from the core of the Earth. |
Now this is just a baseless (as well as incredibly vague) assertion. Show me the numbers.
Here, I'll help you out again. Low grade ore (is that what you mean by low quality uranium) certainly has a worse 'EROEI' than high grade ores, and granite certainly has a worse 'EROEI' than low grade ores, and ordinary dirt has a worse 'EROEI' than granite... but they are all arguably positive.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf11.htm
Illustrates that even in the once through fuel cycle you have an 'EROEI' of over 50, and that jumps more than 100 fold using breeder reactors. First because you get 100 times the fuel, second you dont have to do the energy intensive enrichment procedures, which comprise the vast bulk of the energy cost of uranium as a fuel.
Finally, thorium is a viable nuclear fuel, and theres three times as much thorium. |
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ECM Heavy Crude


Joined: Feb 09, 2005 Posts: 227
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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I love that 1 ton number for breeders. They are obviously having such an impact today with the average gigawatt plant using about 175 tons per year of which about 100 tons is newly mined.
Even after several decades there is no breeder that functions within stated parameters. That 1 ton number is as likely as the world getting 20K nuclear plants built in a century let a lone a few decades.
If breeders were so successful then why are so many countries looking for ways to get rid of the spent fuel?
Hey everybody, let's cover the world in nuke plants and forget that power plants are primary targets in war. Its not like mother nature could seriously damage a plant some day.
P.S.
This message brought to you by a nuclear powered computer. |
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0mar Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
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Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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I was under the impression that Uranium's EROEI was astronomical. 1 ton of Uranium for an entire's year worth of electricity is a damn good trade off in my opinion. Even if you have to mine it and then centrifuge it to weed out the U-238 (if I remember my nuclear chemistry). Unless that 1 ton is a measure of the U-235 and not just 1 ton of Uranium ore, I don't see how Uranium can have a poor EROEI.
1 ton of U-235 would require about 300 tons of Uranium ore, if I remember my nuclear chemistry again (lol). 99.7% of Uranium is U-238.
U-238 can be used to make Plutonium though, which is fissionable. _________________ Joseph Stalin
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. " |
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