How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4230 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Tue May 24, 2005 8:14 pm Post subject:
I also see another potential problem (like there aren't enough already) of boomers pulling money out of the markets when they hit 59.5. I would guess this would push markets lower if more money doesn't come in (BUSH's plan for youngsters not passing).
I work with the elderly population and am amazed at the amount of care given to them (not that they don't deserve it/pay for it), but see my future VERY unlike the one they have!
I also see another potential problem (like there aren't enough already) of boomers pulling money out of the markets when they hit 59.5. I would guess this would push markets lower if more money doesn't come in (BUSH's plan for youngsters not passing).
True - so it's likely that we'll be looking at weak stock markets, increased inflation, higher interest rates, and reduced growth for the next twenty years or so. Interestingly enough, Barron's published this scenario 9 years ago and it's playing out exactly as expected.
RonMN - in theory, the surplus collected for Social Security was invested for later disbursement when the demographic change you mention occurs. But the money was "invested" in treasury securities...and liquidating such a position would devastate the markets. So, from an accounting standpoint, Social Security won't be in trouble until 20??, but from a practical budgetary perspective, a problem is beginning to nibble upon us. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2564 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Wed May 25, 2005 3:55 am Post subject:
so in 3 years we have the first "large wave" of baby boomers reaching retirement age...we're facing crushing economics in social security, medicare, medicade, massive gov't debt & twin deficits, massive consumer debt, a declining dollar, rising fuel costs, peak oil, a seriously degraded environment, over population, wars on (atleast) 2 fronts, another huge hurricane season has been predicted for this year...
Have i missed anything? any killer asteroids headded our way? H5N1 pandemic?
This is another short coming of our fantastic system.
You see the system assumes that population will grow forever just as it assumes that wealth and economic growth will go on forever.
The system is a blind sighted fool. Who made up such a STUPID system? That's what I want to know. _________________ Hello, my name is Rax. I live in the Amazon jungle with a bunch of women. We are super eco feminists and our favourite passtimes are dangling men by their ankles and discussing peak oil. - apparently
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2564 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Wed May 25, 2005 6:07 am Post subject:
There is a part of the system that "they" don't tell you about. It's a growth-crash-growth cycle. They know that growth cannot go on forever. It must be continuous growth until the tipping poing - crash & die-off...then start the growth cycle all over again. The cycle repeats itself but those who don't learn their history are doomed to repeat it.
Have i missed anything? any killer asteroids headded our way? H5N1 pandemic?
Just one small item...
Markets revert to the mean in terms of growth, price earnings ratios, and so forth. We've had a very strong market for years - so, the aforementioned numbers are far beyond the mean. Thus, purely on a statistical basis, we're due for substantial declines. This can be a short correction (i.e., a crash), or spread over 20 years or so.
Joined: Dec 20, 2004 Posts: 890 Location: Scotland
Posted: Wed May 25, 2005 8:44 am Post subject:
im from UK and we'll soon have 2 workers for every 1 non worker. people of my mum and dad's generation are all going into retirement now, and many of them are actually going to have a very, very low income in retirement, but a paid off house. thus, there will be a huge loss of money moving around the economy, as these people wont have any money to spend.
also, the average UK person now isnt paying into a pension - because a) no one trust them anymore and b) no one can afford it anymore. no one i know of has any spare money AT ALL at the end of the month. They are always deep in overdraft, the credit cards never seem to reduce, the bills go up, there's always 'something' that needs to be bought, fixed, renewed etc. etc. etc.
so - there is a massive amount less going into savings and pensions now.
i just cant believe the government of the UK though - 'you all need to save 10 times more than you are!!' How the f**k can anyone do that when incomes are dropping, bills are skyrocketing, and housing costs are astronomical?
Also - if people really did start cutting back massively, there'd be a massive outcry by retailers telling us all to spend more.
What the f**k is going on? People spend a lot, they complain, they stop spending, they complain. F**K OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The system is a blind sighted fool. Who made up such a STUPID system? That's what I want to know.
I'm sorry I don't have a link, but I believe this story is essentially
true.
Back when the Congress was about to vote on Social Security sometime
in the 30s, FDR had a number cruncher to look at the figures, so FDR
could use it to get the measure passed. It was supposed to show the
system would pay for itself pretty much forever.
The dude showed the President his report a few days before the vote
and FDR pitched a fit and made him change the report to show as was
intended. The first report showed the system would go bankruct in
about 1960 if I remember correctly.
Sometime in the 1980s, the accounting balance in the "Trust" fund for
retirement came within 2-3 months of expected future retirement benefits
and government(rather secretly) authorized borrowing funds from the disiability or Medicare fund and it was quickly "repaid". It was all hush-hush.
The retirement portion of the "trust" fund is made up entirely of special
government securities and a small amount of cash. The securities are
special in two ways--only the trust fund can be issued the securities and
only the government can redeem them.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2564 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Wed May 25, 2005 2:13 pm Post subject:
If i remember my grade school history correctly i believe it was alexander hamilton that created our financial system. So we can all blame him Not that it would do any good...the dude's been dead for quite a while now.
Think the UNthinkable...back then, with uncountable resources, somebody probably said "these resources are NOT infinate"...and they all laughed & mocked & said "so what...these resources wont run out for 200 years"...well, it's been 200 years & here we are
Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2005 5:11 pm Post subject: Demographics
One demographic change that doesn't get mentioned very often is the ratio between doctors and the elderly. As the percentage of elderly increase each year the amount of medical care they need will need as a group will increase. It will be very difficult to increase the amount of physicians (it takes a few years to get through the system, plenty are retiring early) Everyone else will rarely see a doctor. Perhaps we will need to import doctors to try to cope.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2663 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2005 5:36 pm Post subject:
Up here in canada we already have serious problems with shortages of doctors and nurses. Their hours are long and hard and they get great money so eventually they become like my family doctor. Not retired but on vacation 8 months out of the year. We're getting desperate for nurses but the unions do an excellent job of limiting positions in universities. Imported doctors from europe have to jump through hoops to basically do everything again.
I have a friend who's wife was a GP in romania. She came out here and did tests to be a GP here. She aced them and that was good enough to get her into a 1 year program. After doing very well there her and 3 others where selected from the 50 or so left to start a 2 year residency program where she either doesn't get paid or gets paid so little she can't get by on it. In 1 more year she can get out and be an official doctor again. She says it's a little different from romania but is nothing that requires 3 years of retraining. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Not that it would do any good...the dude's been dead for quite a while now.
