Joined: Aug 17, 2004 Posts: 3541 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:07 am Post subject:
nocar wrote:
Why would crude oil rise in expectation of 4th of July? Doesn't take a while for crude to be made into gasoline?
Supply and demand. Huge crude stockpiles are meaningless if only some of the crude is light, sweet. If there is only a small amount of light, sweet crude then gasoline demand will make light, sweet crude more scarce. Hence futures go up since only light, sweet crude futures are traded.
nocar wrote:
Just trying to understand how rational or irrational the oil market is.
First thing to remember is that you don't make money by telling the truth especially if the truth was that capitalism doesn't have a future. Economists are very rational in the sense that they will write and say things that will get them more money. Truth and logic aren't on their agenda.
But I still do not understand why oil would go up 2dollars in anticipation of July 4. It is not like it was an unexpected, sudden event, it is totally predictable, comes every year, same date. I could have understand a smallish, gradual rise, starting some weeks ahead.
Regarding the other point, do you mean that economic commentators just throw out any sort of explanation of market moves that would make the public satisfied, or at least thinking that market behavior can be understood? Without the commentators believeing themselves in their explanations?
I can understand that the investors themselves are not straightforward in telling why they buy or sell.
Joined: Aug 17, 2004 Posts: 3541 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:06 am Post subject:
nocar wrote:
Thank you, BP for answering.
But I still do not understand why oil would go up 2dollars in anticipation of July 4. It is not like it was an unexpected, sudden event, it is totally predictable, comes every year, same date. I could have understand a smallish, gradual rise, starting some weeks ahead.
$2 is just another flucation in an increasingly unstable market.
nocar wrote:
Regarding the other point, do you mean that economic commentators just throw out any sort of explanation of market moves that would make the public satisfied, or at least thinking that market behavior can be understood? Without the commentators believeing themselves in their explanations?
Julian Darley Q7. So they don’t worry that the actual recoverable amount of oil in the ground is inevitably reducing (since discovery is not replacing production), and they appear to multiply the price of oil by the amount that’s expected to be recovered, and of course as the oil price goes up fast enough that could keep going for quite a long time. Is it your impression that they’re not looking beyond that and saying, “hey wait a minute, there’s something else going on here?”
Colin Campbell: No. I don’t think the investment community has a view of the future beyond a matter of a few months. All of those people in that domain are out to make quick money, and nobody has a long term investment view of the future. Again it simply isn’t their job.
Joined: Apr 27, 2005 Posts: 153 Location: OHIO, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:24 am Post subject:
nocar wrote:
Thank you, BP for answering.
But I still do not understand why oil would go up 2dollars in anticipation of July 4. It is not like it was an unexpected, sudden event, it is totally predictable, comes every year, same date. I could have understand a smallish, gradual rise, starting some weeks ahead.
nocar
My feeling is that in fact, this year the 4th of July did come unexpectedly. No one saw it coming, so oil jumped $2.
I was thinking about it this weekend, and maybe it's because demand still looks to be setting a record despite the high price of oil. In other words people are still willing to travel in record numbers despite the rise. Traders probably looked at the report for record number of people on the road and took it as a sign that demand isn't slowing (something they are watching for). Maybe that's why. I know I drove 1100 miles this weekend (nearly a barrel of oil all by myself).
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 1190 Location: Zoorope
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:17 am Post subject:
$60, 15 right now.
I think that Bush speech pushed the price. Someone in the financial market must be smelling something "new" coming. _________________ **no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
Are you sure it's not just Hurricane Dennis? Last night, I heard they are predicting it will reach Category 3 status. The oil rigs are already evacuated for Cindy, a much less powerful storm.
Also alarming: it's awfully early in the year for this kind of thing. We may be looking at a worse-than-usual hurricane season, even worse than last year's.
Joined: Aug 17, 2004 Posts: 3541 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:31 am Post subject:
Leanan wrote:
Are you sure it's not just Hurricane Dennis? Last night, I heard they are predicting it will reach Category 3 status. The oil rigs are already evacuated for Cindy, a much less powerful storm.
Do you remember back when the weather didn't cause oil to go over $60/barrel? Those were the days!
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 599 Location: The Pit of Despair
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:32 am Post subject:
Leanan wrote:
Are you sure it's not just Hurricane Dennis? Last night, I heard they are predicting it will reach Category 3 status. The oil rigs are already evacuated for Cindy, a much less powerful storm.
Also alarming: it's awfully early in the year for this kind of thing. We may be looking at a worse-than-usual hurricane season, even worse than last year's.
Ding ding ding! I think Leanan gets the prize. The cyclone activity in the tropics is making people nervous about production in the Gulf of Mexico.
While this may be an active hurricane season, the size & track of the storms is probably more important than the number of systems and their severity.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2722 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:32 am Post subject:
Nope apparently the ISM numbers on the economy where good, so the economy is doing good, so we'll use even more oil hence oil goes up. $60.65 currently up $1.06 _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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