How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Apr 27, 2005 Posts: 108 Location: California
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:50 pm Post subject: Help with deconstructing the EIA 2037 peak curve?
I'm sure you're familiar with the unfortunate projection that EIA put out last year :
This is the basis of the 2037 peak that is so often referenced as the US "official" view of the peak.
I find it laughable to posit a global depletion curve based on R/P=10.
(But I find it interesting that even with their extra trillion barrels, a "normal" depletion curve peaks in 2016)
But equally unfortunate, the director of our national lab uses this same graph in his presentations urging more funding and R&D into carbon-neutral alternatives such as cellulitic ethanol. I've engaged him in a chat about the unsuitability of the EIA projection (he's a physicist and not a geologist), but I wanted to add some more facts to my arsenal. Basically, I'm wondering what percent of the URR (3,003 bill bbls) is represented under the curve by the peak in 2037? Is it way beyond 50%? 60% or more? Could any of you whiz-bang modelers with the historical production series be able to pick up from 1999 (looks like the last historical year they have used) and run with their assumptions? There's other evidence I can use with this to show that other oil fields, countries, and even other resources (e.g UK coal) decline at about midpoint of depletion.
Hello Sparaxis,
Check the updated Verhulst model thread, we covered pitfalls of estimation using nonlinear regression, and the technical caveats of prediction when all the parameters are unknown. You will find various formulas that will help you answer that question there.
Basically:
- EIA are f..king around with nonlinear regression tools that they barely understand. The same can be said about all the people predicting the peak.
- there are ways to use the data series to come up with any number you want, and in fact we have been able to reproduce the predictions from the various groups by interfering with the stopping rules of the Levenberg Marquadt, Gradient descent estimators
- if you check the ASPO conference proceedings in Lisbon this year you will find that the issue was addressed (check their web site there is a link there)
- the time of the peak can be estimated more robustly than the URR (at least with an error of +/- 4 years
Hubbert himself fitted the data by hand by the way, and he was wrong on the URR of NA.
- it has been found (based on the US data) that the 99% curves are more reliable than the "mean" curves due to the bias of the parameter estimation procedure. That bias is probably a function of the dataset btw.
- Unless people decide to play with Stochastic Differential Equation, mixture modeling approaches (btw there was such a paper in ASPO) we will not achieve better accuracy
- EIA is wrong, Peak is here _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
cumulative production in 1999: 907.36 Gb
cumulative production between 2000 and 2016 (2% growth): 538.89 Gb
cumulative production between 2017 and infinity (2% depletion): Pmax* (1 - alpha) / alpha= 36.97 * (1 - 0.02) / 0.02= 1,811 Gb
URR= 907.36 + 538.89 + 1,811= 3,258 Gb
which is not far from the USGS URR. If we impose URR= 3,000 Gb, the PO date would have to be between 2012 and 2013.
PO production value= P(2016)= 36.97 Gb
PO cumulative production/URR= 44%
cumulative production in 1999: 907 Gb
cumulative production between 2000 and 2037 (2% growth): 1,511 Gb
cumulative production between 2037 and infinity (P=R/10): 582 Gb
P(2037)= 56 Gb
PO cumulative production/URR= 81%
Production midpoint= 2018
I assumed URR= 3,000 Gb which means that R(2037)= 3,000 - 907 - 1,511= 582 Gb. Therefore, P(2038)= 582 / 10= 58.2 Gb which implies that the peak is in fact in 2038 (with this particular URR).
By construction, the URR has to be 3,000 Gb. _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
Last edited by khebab on Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:37 am; edited 1 time in total
Clearly, the first model is the most "credible" with a near symmetric curve and a midpoint near the PO date. The second model is really unrealistic with half of the URR consumed 19 years before peak production! _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
Joined: Apr 27, 2005 Posts: 108 Location: California
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:11 am Post subject:
Thank you!!! Both for the references to the various Lisbon conference papers and for running the numbers. 81% URR consumed at peak on the R/P=10 decline curve is astonishing.
But not much more astonishing than Guy Caruso's (EIA director) presentation at the Asian Oil and Gas conference in Malaysia a few weeks ago. I would have been so embarrassed for him to have heard his speech. In it, not only did he repeat all this, but he added in all the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan bitumens and treated them as conventional petroleum, added them to the USGS 2000 numbers, and created a new peak in 2065 (2% growth) or 2094 (1% growth). His production curve for tar sands alone had maximum output in 2078 at over 112 mmb/d!
But not much more astonishing than Guy Caruso's (EIA director) presentation at the Asian Oil and Gas conference in Malaysia a few weeks ago. I would have been so embarrassed for him to have heard his speech. In it, not only did he repeat all this, but he added in all the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan bitumens and treated them as conventional petroleum, added them to the USGS 2000 numbers, and created a new peak in 2065 (2% growth) or 2094 (1% growth). His production curve for tar sands alone had maximum output in 2078 at over 112 mmb/d!
I don't know what he is on, but it must be some good s..t !
Anyway ... your director could probably get more grands if he did not use his predictions but rely on ASPO, Lahuerre, or even some of the Lisbon guys.
These predictions (EIA) create a false sense of security among politicians and financial planners alike. If you have time, pick up the idea of Bayesian regression analysis (I will not have time to work on that till after September) _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:14 am Post subject:
It's so ridiculous! How do you like the nice cliff at the end? Like we're going to use oil like it's water, not worrying about conservation, etc. then suddenly drop off the face of a cliff.
This actually is a good argument for drastic measures now to survive the free fall!!
You could also say that simply eyeballing the curve it doesn't look credible for the following reasons:
1) The area under the curve post peak is visibly smaller than the area pre-peak (make a rough count of squares if this is not obvious enough by simple eyeballing).
2) The peak is a very pointy peak. This is quite unlikely, as it would mean production somehow ramping up at full speed before falling dramatically. I don't think the physics of oil drilling allow for that.
You could also say that simply eyeballing the curve it doesn't look credible for the following reasons:
1) The area under the curve post peak is visibly smaller than the area pre-peak (make a rough count of squares if this is not obvious enough by simple eyeballing).
2) The peak is a very pointy peak. This is quite unlikely, as it would mean production somehow ramping up at full speed before falling dramatically. I don't think the physics of oil drilling allow for that.
You're right, the second curve (PO=2037) does not make any sense because we consume 81% of the oil before peak (demand side of the curve) before falling almost immediately. I'm not aware of any natural phenomenon that could exhibit that kind of curve. I also don't understand the choice of the depletion model (R/P=10). I've read somewhere that the R/P=10 threshold is the economist way to say that the source is depleted (you have 10 years left of reserve). But they could have chosen a geometric depletion with the following depletion rate: 56/582= 9.6%
The first curve (PO=2016) makes more sense except that they assume a rosier URR (3,256 Gb). _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
If we assume a EIA like scenario:
- 2% annual demand growth
- 2% annual depletion rate
I assumed different PO date between 2000 and 2040 and I derived afterward the corresponding URR, PO maximum production rate and % of the URR before peak. Therefore, I generate a subset of annual production scenarios matching the EIA requirements. I obtain the following figure:
The EIA scenario corresponding to PO in 2016 is given by the red dot. If we take the last URR from the 2005 BP ernergy review (2,235 Gb), we have already passed PO since 2003. Assuming an URR equals to high case USGS estimate (3,896 Gb) we have a peak in 2025 which is what the CERA report is claiming. The ASPO URR estimate is about 1,823 Gb which would have put the PO date far before 2000 (again assuming a 2% depletion). It means that the ASPO estimate requires a far greater depletion rate (probably around 5%) in order to put the PO date beyond 2004-2005. _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
What is R/P=10 and what is it's significance? Why is it a ridiculous value?
thanks, pete
Good question! I don't know exactly the origin, I think there is a presentation at the last ASPO conference (Lisbon) where the author used R/P=10 as the threshold beyond which the ressource is considered depleted (basically you have 10 years left at the peak consumption rate). _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3249 Location: One more question...
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:04 pm Post subject:
khebab wrote:
pstarr wrote:
What is R/P=10 and what is it's significance? Why is it a ridiculous value?
thanks, pete
Good question! I don't know exactly the origin, I think there is a presentation at the last ASPO conference (Lisbon) where the author used R/P=10 as the threshold beyond which the ressource is considered depleted (basically you have 10 years left at the peak consumption rate).
reserves to production ratio. A value of 10 simply means any given year depletion will allow production to equal 1/10 remaining reserves _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
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