Anyone know the IEA forecast for peak oil?

LadyRuby

I'm trying to track this down for some research I'm undertaking.

This article says it's 2015 to 2033, other reports say after 2030.

http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/weo2004/TheUppsalaCode.html [/url]

Such · Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:17 pm Post subject:

I have some of their presentations... i think their latest projection is 2013 or 2015.

For some reason 2013 sticks in my head more though.

NTBKtrader · Intermediate Crude Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 596

Is it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo

LadyRuby · Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:51 pm Post subject:

turmoil · Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:52 pm Post subject:

Badger · Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:52 pm Post subject:

what problem.... Very Happy

no problemo...2070...

the IEA told me govt showed them some charts and pie graphs so where building more roads....

Laughing

NTBKtrader · Intermediate Crude Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 596

Sparaxis · Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:58 pm Post subject:

Lady Ruby,

It's also useful to read the critique of the IEA forecasts (and EIA and others) posted here.

The IEA does not forecast a "peak year". Doing so would be political untenable, since their member countries certainly don't want their markets to get spooked. Every 2 years, they publish the "World Energy Outlook", the latest being 2004. In it, they forecast production rising to 121 mmbd by 2030.

If you read the details, the forecast is actually conditioned on an enormous amount of investment taking place before then ($16 trillion for all energy; $3 trillion for oil & gas, of which a half-trillion in the Middle East alone), or double the annual rate of O&G investment in the 1990s. Of course, as economists, they figure more investment will naturally result in more supply, but nonetheless, I don't think it's fair to use IEA's forecasts without acknowledging such conditions. EIA doesn't even go that far--they are simply out in left-field.

I got into an argument recently with a friend who works at IEA about this, and it's obvious that they are savvier about the situation than they can acknowledge (witness the "How to Save Oil in a Hurry" publication earlier this year). But their hands are tied to actually predict a peak year.

You can find the executive summary of the World Energy Outlook 2004 here.

johnhemming · Coal Joined: Aug 13, 2005 Posts: 3

I asked a written parliamentary question about this and was pointed to the IEA's figure of 2030+

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/john_hemming/birmingham%2C_yardley

has all my WPQs

I thought I put a link on my blog
johnhemming.blogspot.com

but I cannot find it at the moment.

clv101 · Posted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:04 am Post subject: