I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1938 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:21 pm Post subject: [Questions for: Julian Darley]
----- Original Message -----
From: Julian Darley
To: enviroengr@peakoil.com Sent: Monday, August 09, 2004 22:47
Subject: Invite as Featured Author/Expert Forum at http://peakoil.com
EE - thank you for the invitation. that sounds most interesting. let me know how you would like to proceed.
Hello Julian,
my question is when does a crunch in NG appear likely?
I know this is kind of impossible to predict what with the weather-dependency of NG demand, but my question is would a severe winter 2004/2005 lead to a crunch and what do you think would be the consequences?
Deffeyes mentions in one of his interviews that taking a city off NG could lead to a series of explosions when the pilot lights are switched back on. Do you think that that would be a significant problem?
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1938 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm Post subject: Cross-Ref NG
Consider these data, begging capacity, processing and timing questions:
Thread starting with:
"I have had trouble getting data on peak natural gas in North America. Some articles mention that North America has vast reserves of natural gas. Others say that it's in trouble. Some articles say that natural gas is in a plateau right now, but will fall off a cliff soon.
Is there a graph for North American natural gas production? I know that natural gas is critical for food production and a large share of our electrical generation.
The USA could be hit with a double whammy with natural gas peaking soon along with light crude. As if manufacturing and transportation problems weren't enough, we might face fertilizer, home heating, and electrical generation challenges at the same time.
I'm guessing that shipping LNG by tanker overseas is not economical. Could it become so if the shortage is bad enough?"
http://peakoil.com/fortopic1363.html _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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Author of High Noon for Natural Gas, Julian is an environmental philosopher who researches and writes about non-market and non-technology-based responses to global environmental degradation. Suggested policy responses are informed by a wide range of critical analyses from disparate disciplines, such as philosophy, cultural studies, sociology, ecology, music, governance, evolutionary psychology, and politics. He is also engaged in piloting such responses. Julian has an MSc in Environment and Sociology from University of Surrey, UK, which led to a published thesis examining the coverage of complex environmental issues in current affairs programmes at the BBC; an MA in Journalism and Communications from the University of Texas at Austin; and a BA in Music & Russian. Julian uses his wide range of skills from previous careers as laboratory scientist, musicologist, film-maker, language teacher, translator, software architect, and environmental policy advisor to further all of his work.
www.juliandarley.com _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
Will america's coal be sufficient to cover the comming deficits in Natural Gas. Specificly are the physical mine attributes in the United states conductive to ramping up production to meet demand.
( I am concerned about what is unfolding in China despite large coal reserves and tremendous demand, the physical mining of coal is not up to market expectations.)
Also, what natural gas might be present off the Contenental Shelf of the Americas? Or other areas that are now Verbotten, and in the future will likely be plundered for expediant energy. _________________ With Love to all, and Malice to none.
"A people is conquered not when they lose a war, but when they adopt the song and customs of the enemy"
-Chacham S
Peak oil is supposed to impact food production first by removing the large farm machines from production and by affecting our ability to create fertilizers and pesticides.
I mentioned this to a co-worker today and he shot me down on this one. I did a google search and sure enough I could find no mention of oil used in the creation of fertilizers or pesticides. Of course being our #1 power source oil is going to be used for energy in the creation and distribution of fertilizers and pesticides.
Is there a direct association between fertizilers and pesticides? i.e. Are commercial fertilizers and pesticides created directly from oil byproducts?
This is one document that I found on the history of fertilizers and it did not mention oil at all.
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