[Opinion] Assessments and Plans

Pops · Last edited by Pops on Wed Dec 28, 2005 9:55 am; edited 6 times in total

For those of you new to PO.com, this is the oldest active thread on the site and in my opinion at least, the most important. It is where members lay out their best guess at the ramifications of Peak Oil and put their money where their crystal ball is by outlining their progress and plans for the future.

[edited 12/05 to add…]
Just to clarify what I mentioned in my original post from early 2004, below, this isn’t a debate thread, rather a place for everyone to simply post and read each other’s plans.

Please do comment and discuss each other’s general plans, but do it in the thread titled [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion that you’ll find directly below this one, or, even better, in one of the categorized threads.

I realize it’s rather cumbersome to copy and paste snips into another thread. But hopefully less drift makes for easier reading and second, commenting on good, specific ideas in the categorized threads makes those ideas more accessible than if they are buried in this general thread.

Thanks for your help!

---
My opening post...}

I’ve stolen a phrase from someone (sorry, I can’t attribute it) about being prepared and planning for the future; they called it a “No Regrets” policy. Essentially you should prepare for anything to happen; even if what happens is nothing.

Although there aren’t many people here yet, perhaps a thread containing various takes on current situations and short and long term plans to deal with the topic of energy specifically and other possible scenarios could be helpful to people who throw up there hands and say “the situation is hopeless so why worry?” I’m not thinking about a debate thread, rather others' views of the situation and their plans on how to cope and thrive.

OK, so here is mine (sorry, this dups some posts I’ve made on other threads).

My short-term concerns are primarily the precarious conditions of the economy. Bubbles, bubbles everywhere, real estate over exuberance, weak dollar, current account deficit, huge federal, state and personal debts, jobless recovery. A short-term political or terrorist induced oil crunch could be devastating to this house of cards. Long term I’m still worried about the economy and my non-expert energy outlook is flat and even declining prices for maybe 5-8 years, then at first gradual then accelerating increases thereafter.

I’ve called myself a Luddite, Hippy-type, Bunker Boy. I’ve had several occupations but have been a self-employed graphic artist for some years. We are currently relocating to a small farm in the Midwest (exact location not yet determined). Before you decide this guy is really out there, let me say peak oil is not the main reason for the move, mainly were rats deserting the California real estate market – our home value has increased about 125% in four years! The reason for the Midwest is to be closer to our kids and grandkids.

Our requirements for relocation are enough land to be as food self-sufficient as possible and remote from large population centers and transportation corridors. I am lucky in that we will be able to purchase land outright and have a little left over to achieve some energy independence as well, also in that I will be able to retain a portion of my current clients while reducing my overhead by 1/3 to ½. Again this is not totally about peak oil, it has been the long-standing semi-retirement plan – we’ve just decided its time has come sooner than we thought.

Specific improvements include serious insulation and solar space & water heating, PV and or Wind power, possible mechanical waterpower, permanent plantings (fruit, nut, berries, woodlot improvements).

Should things go bad soon we’ll be in a much better shape to ride out whatever happens than we are now. If things go as the “Depletionists predict, we’ll have a “school” to teach our kids and grandkids (and ourselves) how our parents and grandparents got by without cheap oil.

And should nothing happen – the energy fairy waves her magic wand and as Merle Haggard said “We’ll all be drinking that free bubble-up and eating that rainbow stew”; in that case we’ll have a nice little hobby farm to putter away our old age.

Pops[fade]

Atr0p0s · Moderator Joined: Apr 08, 2004 Posts: 119

I've talked over peak oil with some friends, and of course debated it here. My views are fairly simplistic. I believe that America will inflate in power to its height, and begin its demise thereafter militarily, socially and economically. I believe we will be reduced to bread lines not too long after a real energy crisis is fully realized, but I know based on some precedence that land values don't increase during economic stagnation, but tend to decrease. Farm land is no exception for several reasons (I won't go in to them, but think Great Depression.) Based on that, I'm going to see what I can do in terms of buying some land for myself. The holes in my plan include: I don't know where the money is coming from; I am as yet fairly uninformed when it comes to agrarian living; I don't know how much money I will have to invest in my immediate survival; I don't know how I will procure power for my hypothetical farm and I don' t know where the labor to work the land will come from.

I am confident the holes will become patched. While not a believer in the energy fairy, I am a believer in my own fortitude, even though I'm a fairly soft suburbanite at the moment. Is that belief as whimsical and unrealistic as the energy fairy? I believe no. Only way my plan can fail is if I die, and trust me, I ain't dying.

The other big part of my plan: bicycles. I can ride a bike for a hundred miles on a few breaks and some food against a fair head wind. One thing I will be investing in before peak oil is a bike and spare parts.

I admire the situation you've found yourself in, pops. Fortune favors the strong.

rowante · Posted: Tue Apr 13, 2004 10:38 pm Post subject:

"The other big part of my plan: bicycles. I can ride a bike for a hundred miles on a few breaks and some food against a fair head wind. One thing I will be investing in before peak oil is a bike and spare parts."

Atr0p0s, just out of curiosity, I once read that bicycles are THE most energy efficient transport ever concieved by human beings.

It would be fair to say most people using the internet today in the USA (and AUS) would have no first hand experience of war or economic depression. This lack of knowledge is the biggest threat to people today. It is just inconceivable that our safe little world could come crashing down around us. It can.

I hate to say this but the collapse of the USA and human populations in general is probably the best possible medicine for the bio-sphere. My only hope is that pockets of knowledge are retained to pick up where things left off.

I'm with Pops, lets plan for the worst but hope for the best.

Aaron · Guest

There is a camp of thought that says our planet gets only one shot at developing a global civilization. The idea is that early civilizations require a relatively cheap and abundant source of energy to grow from pre-industrial models into post-industrial, modern civilization. In the absence of an easy to exploit energy source, they speculate that it may be impossible to make this transition. In our history, coal and the crude oil filled this need allowing for a rapid expansion of all aspects of modern civilization. They contend therefore, that if we fail as a species to make the next transition to a post-industrial model, before existing reserves of oil reach depletion levels, it would become impossible to lift ourselves back to current levels of civilization. Even worse, if human society fails this test, and collapses, no other species could hope to duplicate our experience because cheap, easy to exploit oil will be unavailable to them. To achieve the level of technology which could free us from dependence on oil energy, they contend, requires a transitional energy source like oil. Since little oil would be left after depletion world-wide, it becomes impossible to "boot-strap" ourselves past this point making the rise of modern industrial civilization a one shot affair here on earth.

This is by admission a worst case scenario for earth. And of course the universe is apparently filled with countless opportunities for life to develop elsewhere making the "single-shot" theory a sort of "weeding-out" of species on a universal scale. In the grand scheme of things, perhaps earth's failure to produce a species capable of making this transition is no more significant than any individual species failing to develop a sustainable niche for itself and becoming extinct. Just how arrogant are we?

Seemingly far-fetched? Sure... The fly in the cream here is always the same... Some things we know. Some things we know we don't know. Everything else we don't know we don't know. It's possible our ignorance is salvation. That said, if it's possible to advance to industrial civilization without oil, we don't know how. Our own history certainly illustrates the concept that cheap available energy sources propelled us to where we are today.

Finally...

It behooves us to remember that failed predictions of the fall of civilization are no guarantee of future prosperity for humanity. After all, the doom and gloom folks only have to be right once.

Atr0p0s · Moderator Joined: Apr 08, 2004 Posts: 119

Most eloquent.
It is nice to see someone looking at the entire thing on a larger scale. Maybe we are just one element of a galactic game that hasn't started yet. Maybe thousands of years from now, extraterrestrials who passed the test of beating peak oil on their planets will come to earth and dig up our ancient civilizations and say "Well. These guys messed up." and put us in history books as failures and export our primitive people for use as slaves.

Am I farfetched and corrupted by sci-fi? Absolutely Laughing

But I don't rule out the possibility of a grander scope to things than we can possibly conceive from our roost on earth. The only way to find out will be to beat peak oil as a united human race.

Onyered · Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2004 12:06 am Post subject:

Plans
Planning for Peak oil is to say the least very difficult. I think that based on the fact that no one knows what will happen and when there is no right plan. Pops said he has a “no regrets” attitude to planning and I think that is very wise.

As a long time hunter I have firearms adequate too my needs. FYI at the last gun show I went to SKS rifles were selling for $129.00. And 7.62 X39 Wolfe ammo for $55.00/tho.

Food (StoredLongterm) has been the debate among my group. I advocate bread and beans for 10, for 6 mons. This would be emergency food and not for daily consumption. I decided that 6 mons. is a min. to grow a crop. If a collapse were to happen in the fall with no current crop this would be cutting it very close. Also to be stored would be enough seeds of the Heirloom varieties to grow garden crops to sustain at least 10. I have proposed packaging these seeds in 5 gal. buckets and using co2. I would like at least 5 of these containers.

I have also ordered Hybrid Poplars, which while not as high btu wise as hardwoods like oak, grows much faster. I plan on growing these in one raised bed and transplanting as it becomes feasible to other locations.

The water table here is very high and I would like to dig a well and get water samples.

I presently have 4 raised beds. I plan on doubling this and have room for at least 16.

Any plan is limited by physical realities (the finites like money), unlike Growth Economics Laughing

so my first steps have related to food. So those are the steps I have taken or am in the process of taking. Shelter is a problem. Money precludes buying property and trying to establish a homestead. I feel at this point it is better to consolidate here rather than be caught totally unprepared “on the farm”. If things remain “stable” for a while maybe that will change. The best thing at this point that can be said for the house is that it is paid for and sits on 2 lots with 3 vacant lots adjacent. It was built in the mid 70’s so is not efficient or readily adapted to alternate heat. This will have to be addressed.

Taken in total these are pretty basic steps and may be adequate given more time or they may not.

Which leads to assessment.

I guess my outlook for a seamless transition to alternate fuels is not very optimistic. I have read Listentomes links on turkey carcass oil and I don’t see it or anything else supporting the trucking industry which is what I believe will lead to the demise of the “growth economy”. I don’t have facts at hand to support this but I am a former truck driver and I drive on a major interstate daily and see tremendous truck traffic.
80% freight moved by small (3 trks< ) companies
Avg long haul trk buys 100 + gals a day X 26 days = 2600 galsX.20 cent per gal increase= $520.00. per month.
Diesel has already increased .20 cents per gal from a year ago.

Pops · Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2004 9:08 pm Post subject:

Bump…

Sorry for the bump, but I was hoping for something other than debates about which fairy would appear first. Here's my excuse for bumping.

I was the other day musing about Peak Oil in my family.

My Great Grandfather had been in the run on the Cherokee Strip and homesteaded land in Pawnee County, OK. He did well as a farmer and soon after he proved his claim, bought another nearby farm, they called it “The Prairie Place”.

My grandmother was born in 1897 in the Osage nation of what is now Oklahoma. In the teens they got oil on The Prairie Place and that’s how she met my grandfather, a wildcatter. My mother was born in the twenties - her name was Fay.

My Mom always said they didn’t really notice the depression because of the oil money, but about twenty-five years from the time they first found it, the oil was gone. Unfortunately drilling ruined much of the land. My grandfather was no farmer to begin with, after all, he had oil. Needless to say, they went broke. They came to California when my mother was in her teens, dirt-poor, what was termed “Defense Plant Okies”.

My Grandmother died several years ago, but I remember her and my mother telling my daughter about riding their pony “Billy” across the Prairie Place. I’ve been to the farm they remembered and it is littered with long forgotten pump-jacks and bald, spill spots that won’t grow grain for a long time. My mother rode that pony to school near a refinery now listed on the EPAs toxic sites list. It’s a sad place for me; I can see my mother and grandmother’s childhood farm overlaid and forever spoiled by the wreckage of the oil boom.

My granddaughter is named Fay after my mother. I fear that just like her great grandmother Fay, she will spend her youth lulled by everything oil brings - only to see it go away. Perhaps as my mother grew up riding a pony and rode on a jet airliner before she died, my granddaughter will fly on a jet as a girl - but be lucky to have a pony to ride before she dies.

Pops

Aaron · Posted: Sun Apr 18, 2004 11:22 am Post subject: Planning

I would expect that in the event of post-peak shockwaves, the very real events unfolding on the world stage will galvanize political power bases to certain action. I think few would argue that the US Federal government will always act, at least publicly, to defend the interests of itself and its allies. That being given, I would assume America’s economic dominance to continue into whatever future comes. It would seem prudent therefore, to cultivate skills and or property which will realize maximum value in a much less efficient economy. Since civilization itself would collapse without industry and manufacturing, we can posit that we will always have some level of I&M. However, the most profitable activities are always the production of goods or services which by nature must be created by hand, and that require some special knowledge or skill to achieve. Since only naked aggression can defend the logical division of property which defines civilization, being uniquely useful in some way would seem a wise precaution.

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Mon Apr 26, 2004 8:19 am Post subject: Plans

In planning for the mostly unknown future. We d know that fossil fuels are depleting. How and when and if are not for debate here.

Being prepared and how (The Plan) are for discussion here.

Having water and food and personnel protection become important.

Protection? A few well chosen guns and ammo and the ablitity to use then.

Food becomes a major issue. I personalty like the 5 gallon buckets. Using small 1" squares of dry ice to remove the air after filling with food stuffs. Marking them on the outside as to whats inside.

Beans, rice, and a list of other stuff required to maintain life for a small party.

Future food. Heirloom sends and the knowledge as to how to acquire seed from the plants grown in the future. Many people only purchase seeds and don't understand that getting viable seeds isn't as easy as you would think.

Protection from the elements. I hope to be able to build an earth ship in the future but can't at this time.

I'm also currently practicing making knots. I have been reading the boyscouts sites and learning they're knots first. Where will rope come from without oil?

Anyway, water, food, shelter, and protection are the requirements that are being looked at here.

Being prepared for a sudden colapse and for a gradual decline. Sudden colapse requires the 'bug out' thinking and the knowledge for long term survival as well. So I figure I should work towards the bug out side of things so I will be prepared of what ever happens.

Hope for the best and plan for the worst!

smiley · Fission Joined: Apr 16, 2004 Posts: 2125 Location: Europe

This discussion really is taking an 'American' turn (no offence meant). Seems that you guys are looking for an Apocaliptic event, like peakoil is going to end it all.

While I strongly believe that peakoil is upon us, it wont be the end of civilisation. Even if the oil production would collapse overnight, say a 20% decline) that wouldn't matter much.

Most oil is waisted on useless purposes anyway. Like taking the SUV for a spin around the block or firing the BBQ.

Europe has nowadays around 300 milion inhabitants. And I wouldn't say that our level of wellbeing is dissimilar from the USA. Yet our level of oil consumption is much lower and almost stagnant over years.

The reason: if I look at our gas station I see a price of 1.21 Euro/litre, that's $ 5.45 a gallon (if I got the conversion right). After the oil shocks our governements decided to curb consumption by introducing pretty steep taxes (instead of subsidising the use).

This maybe explains why I got a 600kg car which does 40 miles/gallon and cycle whenever possible. Imagine the reduction when all Americans would do so.

The only worry I have is that the USA (and again I don't want to generalise here, certainly not people in this forum) quickly is becoming the energy junky of the world. How much of the 1 trillion trade and goverment deficit is spent on the black stuff?

Even without peakoil I can see the Amerikan debt rising to levels where they will be refused service at the OPEC pump. My biggest fear is what happens if it can't get its dope.

An angry addict sitting on the biggest weapon stockpile in the recorded history.

That's my worry.

Pops · Posted: Mon Apr 26, 2004 3:43 pm Post subject:

Good points Smiley: Junkie with a BIG gun - we Americans are that. I for one don’t believe we’re headed for a “Mad Max” scenario, unless of course we see a precipitous drop in supply of say - 20%.

An abrupt drop is probably the worst scenario I can imagine.

The implications for our already out-of-control economy are beyond my (admittedly limited) ability to predict. The last 3 big world recessions were preceded by smaller “temporary” shortages. If “Real” unemployment in the US is now 8%-10%, I could imagine it rising to 20%-30% in a very short time.

And worldwide the effects would be worse. Fat, spoiled and self-righteous as we are, imports to the US are, in large part, responsible for the recent boom in global trade (even though we’re borrowing from China and OPEC to do it).

A slow increase in price as excess capacity is diminished might give people and businesses a chance to adjust - not that many except China are, before actual “shortages” occur. The world economic “Growth Model” I think will eventually become the “Shrink Model”, but I would hate to see the effects of the “Implosion Model”.

This would be the kind of trigger that the Doomers talk about. It’s one thing when the Junkie needs to steal a few more TV’s to support the monkey; it’s another thing altogether when you take away his goodies – then he gets really dangerous.

Pops

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Mon Apr 26, 2004 9:05 pm Post subject: kind of off the subject

I for one don't believe peak oil will be an apocalyptic event. I am concerned about who is controlling the oil and where it’s at. Half way around the world in the middle of an area where radical Muslims seem so common.

A sudden 20% drop would be a catalyst to begin a really bad time. The ramifications of a sudden 20% change can not be predicted. But a sudden downward spiral could be expected. To be totally unprepared would be fool hardy.

This thread was to be about plans wasn’t it?

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Mon Apr 26, 2004 9:26 pm Post subject: another thought

Smiley, Do you know how many Americans drive 50 miles one way to work everyday? About 20% of the work for where I work does. My last job as well. Over a period of 17 years about (I'm guessing) drove a long ways. We are talking living on the other side of a major city and then in the country.

At my current job, I have been there 9 years. This isn't scientific but I know where 21 people live, who I work with. Of these people 4 live within 5 miles (myself included) 5 live in the nearest major city so thats 8 to 20 miles in distance. 12 live 30 miles or more. Of these 12, I know one who drives 65 miles one way. So not all the gas is being used taking leasurely drives in SUV's in the country. Mostly the people who drive some distance have already learned to drive little economy vehicles.

At my last job, 3 people lived in a small town about 60 miles one way travel from work. Another lived about 50 miles one way from work.

This is very common here.

Then there is the trucking industry. Most of our goods are trucked. That takes fuel.

Personally I believe that 20%can be absorbed and we can make it but it would not be pleasant.

Atr0p0s · Moderator Joined: Apr 08, 2004 Posts: 119

Are your friends really economizing? I know commuters that don't use the most fuel efficient vehicles in the world.

I live near New York City, and I have nothing but good things to say about our commuter system. Suburban lines reaching 100+ miles away weave themselves into the subway system and carry people almost directly to their offices. Where do you live?

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Tue Apr 27, 2004 5:25 pm Post subject: Tulsa

I live in Tulsa OK.

Most of the folks who live furthur drive more effient vehicales. Thats not to say they can't do more. I see countless big pickup trucks with one person and SUV's out the wazoo with one person. If the need arrises then much belt tightening can occur. If it happens gradual. If it is sudden then trying to dump a 3/4 ton 4 door cab truck or a SUV that only get 14 miles to a gallon at best will be difficult. I live about 3 miles from work. I have a small motor cycle I can ride if needed too.

About half the people drive more than 20 miles. Partly because my company is in a industrial park north of the city. If you look at a map of this area. We have people who live in Broken Arrow, Nowata, Glenpool, Keifer, Koweta, Bartleville, Sand Springs, Kellyville. Look at the distance they drive. The guy who lives outside of Nowata is the furthurist I know of. He drive 55 or 60 miles. I don't remember exactly.

We don't have trains or subways to carry people here. Just roads.

Link