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Enquest
Tar Sands
Joined: Mar 29, 2005
Posts: 49
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 Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:39 am Post subject: who does the compensation |
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How much must OPEC and especialy Saudi compansate for the loss of other country's. The USA loses each year a few % of there oil production. Who compensates this. Noth Sea lost 12 to 17% production. Who compensated.
If you add the numbers up of deplation then whe should know a production increase of OPEC isn't realy a global production increase but a compensation. As more and more contry's go in decline there must be more compensated.
Can somebody give the numbers? |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3692
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| Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: who does the comensation |
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Increases in production 2004 vs. 2003
| Code: | Iraq 50.1%
Equatorial Guinea 40.6%
Ecuador 25.3%
Other Africa 22.7%
Sudan 18.0%
Vietnam 17.4%
Kazakhstan 16.5%
Venezuela 13.7%
Angola 12.0%
Nigeria 10.8%
Russian Federation 8.7%
Kuwait 8.3%
Qatar 8.0%
Libya 8.0%
Denmark 6.3%
United Arab Emirates 4.7%
Algeria 4.1%
Malaysia 3.9%
Saudi Arabia 3.5%
Canada 2.7%
China 2.6%
India 2.4%
Tunisia 2.3%
Iran 2.0%
Azerbaijan 1.3%
Peru 1.1%
Mexico 0.9%
Turkmenistan 0.2% |
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Shiraz
Tar Sands
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Joined: May 02, 2005
Posts: 87
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| Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: who does the compensation |
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| Quote: | Type 3 Depletion: This occurs when a whole country is in decline, there are no compensating supplies within the country and customers can no longer get all the supplies they require. This means that customers now have to go to an alternative supplier for some or for all of their requirement.
This is radically different from Type 1 & 2 depletion because for the alternative supplier this is new and to some degree unexpected demand. |
Chris Skrebowski on Understanding Depletion
and therefore following this logic, you find the numbers here:
Megaprojects Report
Although this is old, most of the numbers are still good. The main exception is the demand figure, which even now looks ridiculously low. |
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Taskforce_Unity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
Posts: 487
Location: Holland
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| Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: who does the compensation |
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North Sea is NOT declining with 12 to 17% per year. UK North Sea oil has declined last year with 10%. On average it is declining with 7.56% the last few years. Buzzard is coming online (+200.000) next year Halting the decline. Norway North Sea is declining with 2% per year. Denmark is going to decline in 2006. Germany is increasing Etc.
so 12 to 17% = bullshit, UK GAS was declining with 17% last year.
ODAC"s Megaproject numbers are way too pessimistic. Two reasons.
They do not include some projects which are above the +100.000 barrels per day category
They exclude ALL projects under 100.000 barrels per day category...
Currently Skrebowksi uses a Gross increase of around 15 mb/d, this is even too pessimistic. 18 mb/d is more realistic. and probably also too pessimistic. |
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Enquest
Tar Sands
Joined: Mar 29, 2005
Posts: 49
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| Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: who does the compensation |
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| do you also have the barrels numbers. A increas of 50 % going from 50 to 75 is much a decrese of 5 % going from 10 mil to 9 mil barrels is a lot! |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3692
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| Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 6:41 am Post subject: Re: who does the compensation |
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| Code: | 2003 2004 pct chg
Chad 24 168 600.0%
Iraq 1350 2027 50.1%
Equatorial Guinea 249 350 40.6%
Ecuador 427 535 25.3%
Other Africa 75 92 22.7%
Sudan 255 301 18.0%
Vietnam 364 427 17.4%
Kazakhstan 1111 1295 16.5%
Venezuela 2622 2980 13.7%
Angola 885 991 12.0%
Nigeria 2263 2508 10.8%
Russian Federation 8544 9285 8.7%
Kuwait 2238 2424 8.3%
Qatar 917 990 8.0%
Libya 1488 1607 8.0%
Denmark 371 394 6.3%
United Arab Emirates 2547 2667 4.7%
Algeria 1857 1933 4.1%
Malaysia 878 912 3.9%
Saudi Arabia 10222 10584 3.5%
Canada 3004 3085 2.7%
China 3401 3490 2.6%
India 800 819 2.4%
Tunisia 68 69 2.3%
Iran 3999 4081 2.0%
Azerbaijan 313 318 1.3%
Peru 92 93 1.1%
Mexico 3789 3824 0.9%
Turkmenistan 202 202 0.2% |
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6411
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 6:48 am Post subject: Re: who does the compensation |
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| Quote: | so 12 to 17% = bullshit, UK GAS was declining with 17% last year.
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Remember this is a compound loss...
25% depletion in North Sea so far... and counting...
_________________
"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Praise HawkMan |
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Taskforce_Unity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
Posts: 487
Location: Holland
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| Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:46 am Post subject: Re: who does the compensation |
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| Aaron wrote: | | Quote: | so 12 to 17% = bullshit, UK GAS was declining with 17% last year.
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Remember this is a compound loss...
25% depletion in North Sea so far... and counting... |
You mean (17+7) / 2 = 12%
12% depletion in UK north Sea so far.
Norway, Denmark have far lower depletion rates. |
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