Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:20 am Post subject: Re: Japan
tokyo_to_motueka wrote:
MrBean wrote:
Or could Japan be the best candidate to win the "Fark worst by PO" -award.
my hunch is "no" but it's a very difficult question to answer.
Japan is Fark on a couple of fronts:
1. almost all oil/ng is imported
2. very heavily reliant on imported food and petroleum-based agriculture
but the big population centres have the most efficient public transport networks in the world, so car dependency is much lower than certain empires i can think of...
Agreed, difficult question. I've been wondering why Japan has the second highest oil/capita consumption after US, beating EU (compering importing countries here, not Bahrain, Kuwait etc.)? Can you shed any light?
Quote:
i think Japan will have serious problems, but there will surely be places much worse off...like the UK when North sea oil prodn falls of a cliff in a few years time...
Goes OT, but UK oil is allready off the cliff. That's not the problem - the oil export income was never that important, because UK chose to use it's oil to keep crude prices low with minor profit from the expensive North Sea oil, talk about shooting one's own leg! The real problem is UK's North Sea NG going of the cliff, that's when UK goes to shitter. I don't see plans in place to build pipelines from Russia of Algeria all the to UK, and their economy is dependent on NG. We'll see, perhaps UK decides to join Europe and be nice to Russia and Arabs after all...
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: Japan
MrBean wrote:
I've been wondering why Japan has the second highest oil/capita consumption after US, beating EU (compering importing countries here, not Bahrain, Kuwait etc.)? Can you shed any light?
mmm, now you've got me intrigued.
where do you get your per capita figures from?
last year i did my own spreadsheet based on UN popn data and the BP yearbook. it is based on 2002 popn and 2003 oil consumption data.
according to this, Japan ranks below the US, Canada, the Netherlands, South Korea, Ireland and Australia for per capita consumption. And a little bit above Taiwan, Spain and NZ. (let's forget about Singapore and Norway for the moment).
the UK figure is VERY low and i couldn't figure out why, but maybe you just told me: NG dependency.
why is Japan's per capita consumption in the top tier?
surprisingly, there is still a lot of heavy industry here.
steelmaking, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, heavy machinery, not to mention one or two car/truck plants.
agriculture is very oil dependent here too.
i dunno, i suspect a lot of it goes on producing export goods and capital goods rather than for local consumption.
also OT, but why is Ireland's figure so high, do you think? _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Japan
Japan is self-sufficient in rice I belive, and importing from Manchuria/Korea wouldn't be that big of an energy challenge. I belive the reason Asian people are so short is because the majority of the time before very recently, the staple food was rice/soy.
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:15 pm Post subject: Re: Japan
tokyo_to_motueka wrote:
MrBean wrote:
I've been wondering why Japan has the second highest oil/capita consumption after US, beating EU (compering importing countries here, not Bahrain, Kuwait etc.)? Can you shed any light?
mmm, now you've got me intrigued.
where do you get your per capita figures from?
Don't remember exactly, but I think it was comparing only the big players (US, Japan, EU and China)
Quote:
last year i did my own spreadsheet based on UN popn data and the BP yearbook. it is based on 2002 popn and 2003 oil consumption data.
according to this, Japan ranks below the US, Canada, the Netherlands, South Korea, Ireland and Australia for per capita consumption. And a little bit above Taiwan, Spain and NZ. (let's forget about Singapore and Norway for the moment).
OK, I don't doubt your numbers. But in global comparisons EU is best counted as one, not by member-state.
Quote:
the UK figure is VERY low and i couldn't figure out why, but maybe you just told me: NG dependency.
Couple additional reasons come to mind, UK still uses quite a lot of coal, and has EU's highest taxes on petrol.
Quote:
why is Japan's per capita consumption in the top tier?
surprisingly, there is still a lot of heavy industry here.
steelmaking, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, heavy machinery, not to mention one or two car/truck plants.
agriculture is very oil dependent here too.
i dunno, i suspect a lot of it goes on producing export goods and capital goods rather than for local consumption.
Heavy industry (except petrochemicals) does not necessarily use much oil, but electricity (I doubt Japan uses oil for generating electrity).
Which way is Japanese agriculture oil dependent... machinery, transportation, other?
One more reason comes to mind, comparing Japan with EU and US: Japan uses quite little NG, for the obvious reason there's no NG pipelines to Japan, only LNG. So does Japan use much oil for heating?
And of course relatively lower taxes, if that is the case, resulting in lower efficiency.
Quote:
also OT, but why is Ireland's figure so high, do you think?
Same reasons comes to mind as for Japan, island without NG pipelines and coal mining. Cyprus uses 100% oil!
And just for a curiosity, Sweden uses very little NG and Coal and generates practically all electricity with fission and renawables (mostly hydro I suspect), plus oil for transportation.
The average retail price of regular gasoline across Japan hit a 12-year high of 129 yen per liter, including tax, this month as crude oil prices soared to record levels, the Oil Information Center said Tuesday.
The price as of Aug. 10 was the highest since March 1993, representing a 4 yen rise from the previous month. The average price rose for the second straight month
Japan's election next month could end up costing the United States another ally in Iraq, a symbolic blow to Washington even if Tokyo's overall pro-U.S. foreign policy doesn't change, experts said on Tuesday. Both Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition Democratic Party support the decades-old U.S.-Japan security alliance, and the Sept. 11 vote is being fought largely over Koizumi's financial reform agenda.
_________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
The average retail price of regular gasoline across Japan hit a 12-year high of 129 yen per liter, including tax, this month as crude oil prices soared to record levels, the Oil Information Center said Tuesday.
The price as of Aug. 10 was the highest since March 1993, representing a 4 yen rise from the previous month. The average price rose for the second straight month
129 yen is rat cheap compared to Europe, still below 1 euro (=135 yen), as Europeans currently pay what, €1,4/liter?
Jost noticing that this confirms my guess above about Japan having lower fuel taxes.
Joined: Apr 06, 2004 Posts: 257 Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: Japan
Quote:
Japan imports half of its food, but produces most of its own rice with a lot of petroleum inputs.
Ah yes, but if Japan followed the example of one of its citizens they would not need too...
....Masanobu Fukuoka has one of the most productive farms in Japan, with no petroleum inputs!
FUKUOKA wrote:
In the beginning my expectations and desires were not great . . . and my yields were not great, either! But as the condition of the soil stabilized over time and the fields returned to their natural state, my crop output began to rise steadily. I never noticed any dramatic changes, but eventually I found that I could grow rice without plowing or flooding the field all summer long, and still produce as much as the other farmers did with all their machinery and chemicals . . . sometimes more. My production has now stabilized at about 1,300 pounds, or 22 bushels, per quarter-acre for both winter grain and rice. That is close to the highest in Japan!
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: Japan
rowante wrote:
I wonder if he is still with us?
i certainly hope so!
i saw one of Fukuoka-sensei's friends the other day and he never mentioned anything.
i think he is 93 now. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Japan
MrBean wrote:
Heavy industry (except petrochemicals) does not necessarily use much oil, but electricity (I doubt Japan uses oil for generating electrity).
i'm definitely not an expert on this, but i really doubt you can run a huge heavy industry base without significant petroleum inputs. surely oil, natural gas/LNG and coal are the main inputs along with electricity? i mean, look at Taiwan and South Korea, their oil per capita is very similar to Japan. and speaking of electricity...
figures published by the Japanese govt, for 2000-01, are as follows:
electricity generation sources (%)
nuclear 34
LNG 26
coal 18
oil 11
hydro 10
other 1
so oil is pretty minor in this regard.
MrBean wrote:
Which way is Japanese agriculture oil dependent... machinery, transportation, other?
massive inputs of pesticides and synthetic fertiliser.
lots of machinery used too.
MrBean wrote:
One more reason comes to mind, comparing Japan with EU and US: Japan uses quite little NG, for the obvious reason there's no NG pipelines to Japan, only LNG. So does Japan use much oil for heating?
Japan is the world's number one consumer of LNG, AFAIK.
oil is not used generally to heat homes here though a lot of people use kerosene fan heaters as their cheapest option. oil-fired central heating is pretty much non-existent.
MrBean wrote:
And of course relatively lower taxes, if that is the case, resulting in lower efficiency.
well, petrol is a lot cheaper than the UK or Germany but more expensive than NZ/Australia/Canada/US.
i just shifted from living in Tokyo (with no car) to a country area.
one thing i have observed is the different function of cars and attitude to vehicle expenses between city and country.
in the city, a car is a luxury and status symbol to be used mainly only on the weekends and vacations. people own SUVs and large vans with (quite) big engines (3000cc+).
in the country, a car is a practical necessity and is used everyday to get around. about half of all cards are "kei" which means they pay lower registration taxes and get a 20% discount on motorway tolls (which are VERY expensive here). a "kei" vehicle has a maximum engine size of 660cc.
there is much more reliance on public transport here than most industrialized countries and the suburban car-based lifestyle is not how things work. on weekdays city dwellers use trains, bicycles and walking to get around. in tokyo the majority of mothers ferry their kids around and go shopping on week days on their bicycles! they might make a longer shopping trip in the car on weekends.
MrBean wrote:
And just for a curiosity, Sweden uses very little NG and Coal and generates practically all electricity with fission and renawables (mostly hydro I suspect), plus oil for transportation.
yes, but sweden has a very high oil per capita figure compared with other european countries. what gives? _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
so, my guess that agriculture was a significant factor in Japan was wrong.
and residential is higher than the US despite no central heating in homes.
but if you look at the disparity in use of oil for transport and industry, you start to see what Kunstler is on about.
and it seems my hunch about industrial use of oil was correct for Japan and S Korea.
also, i assume they have put oil used in electricity generation into the "Industry" category. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:40 am Post subject: Re: Japan
the US oil end-use figure for transport of 81% (as calculated above) doesn't seem to match the oft-quote 68%. anyone know the reasons behind this discrepency?
i checked the NZ Yearbook 2000, which gave a figure of 84%, compared to 89% above. i guess the 2000 yearbook has stats from about 1997 or 1998, so a 5 point increase in 5 years seems plausible. (nz car ownership has skyrocketed.) _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Japan
tokyo_to_motueka wrote:
and speaking of electricity...
figures published by the Japanese govt, for 2000-01, are as follows:
electricity generation sources (%)
nuclear 34
LNG 26
coal 18
oil 11
hydro 10
other 1
so oil is pretty minor in this regard.
11% is still quite bad, EU produces 6% of electricity by oil (lot of variation between members, from 0%-100%). Only 45% of electricity domestically produced (not counting uranium imports), 55% with imported hydrocarbons looks quite alarming - so Japan scores a point in competition for the questionable award.
Quote:
oil is not used generally to heat homes here though a lot of people use kerosene fan heaters as their cheapest option. oil-fired central heating is pretty much non-existent.
So what is used for heating?
Quote:
yes, but sweden has a very high oil per capita figure compared with other european countries. what gives?
Sweden and Finland have oil consumption of about 2 Mtoe/million people, which is lot more than the EU25 averadge of about 1,4 Mtoe/million people. I think the main reasons are high standards of living, thinly populated with long driving distances and very cold winters (oil still has a considerable market share in heating, but declining).
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Japan
MrBean wrote:
11% is still quite bad, EU produces 6% of electricity by oil (lot of variation between members, from 0%-100%). Only 45% of electricity domestically produced (not counting uranium imports), 55% with imported hydrocarbons looks quite alarming - so Japan scores a point in competition for the questionable award.
i would absolutely agree that Japan, like a lot of countries, has some serious issues with its oil/LNG dependence for electricity generation.
In 2001, 37% of genearation from those two sources plus some big problems in their nuclear power program. it's definitely going to mean some big changes, but i reckon a lot of places will be in for a rough ride as far as electricity goes.
MrBean wrote:
So what is used for heating?
houses and apartments don't have central heating.
people use kerosene heaters, gas heaters, air conditioners on heating mode, other types of electric heaters, etc.
MrBean wrote:
Sweden and Finland have oil consumption of about 2 Mtoe/million people, which is lot more than the EU25 averadge of about 1,4 Mtoe/million people. I think the main reasons are high standards of living, thinly populated with long driving distances and very cold winters (oil still has a considerable market share in heating, but declining).
sounds like Sweden and Finland are more affluent (and colder) versions of NZ. but i'm sure the public transport can't be as bad.
back to Japan... I think it comes down to whether they can gear up industry for cogeneration and more renewables and use the capacity they've got now more efficiently.
in comparison with other countries, they are a lot less dependent on oil for transport, and the UK and US are also in the crap when their natural gas production starts to fall. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
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