Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:46 pm Post subject: Hello
Long time lurker, first time poster here.
I'm a young man who's been following Peak Oil for a while. While I agree with many of the basic principles behind it, there are a few points of contention. Many people here, for example, seem to believe that the Iraq war is an oil war ( ). I also think its unrealistic to think that PO will have the same effects everywhere. I think some countries will land with some difficulty, while others will come crashing down.
Anyway, I look forward to debate and discussion with you all!
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Hello
TheStorm -
Welcome to the site !
I'd agree that the degree of impact will vary greatly between countries, but apart from extant resources & expectations, there will also be unpredictable variation in pivotal national events, eg. official policy, climate, currency fluctuations etc - so I'm wondering to what extent, if any, you feel that national outcomes can be forecast ?
Also, with regard to the underlying reasons for attacking Iraq I too am unable to accept that oil supply was the motivation, and I should like to hear your views.
Joined: Apr 06, 2004 Posts: 257 Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: Hello
So, umm let's see... The largest oil importing/consuming nation invades the country with the 2nd largest oil reserves, yeah just a coinkidink. _________________ Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: Hello
backstop wrote:
TheStorm -
Welcome to the site !
I'd agree that the degree of impact will vary greatly between countries, but apart from extant resources & expectations, there will also be unpredictable variation in pivotal national events, eg. official policy, climate, currency fluctuations etc - so I'm wondering to what extent, if any, you feel that national outcomes can be forecast ?
Also, with regard to the underlying reasons for attacking Iraq I too am unable to accept that oil supply was the motivation, and I should like to hear your views.
Care to elaborate ?
regards,
Backstop
It seems to me that the countries that will do best in the future will be the ones that have sizeable petroleum reserves (both in the ground and in tanks) and that have nuclear weapons. The reserves will allow them more time to switch to alternative energy sources, and countries that choose to use their military to make a grab for resources will pass over them and go for easier targets instead (due to their nukes).
I can also see nuclear powers entering into contracts with major oil producing nations: "You give us oil and in return we'll nuke anyone who attacks you. This may mean that the ever dwindling supply of oil goes to the nations with nukes and that the rest of the world loses out.
Quote:
So, umm let's see... The largest oil importing/consuming nation invades the country with the 2nd largest oil reserves, yeah just a coinkidink.
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:58 pm Post subject: Re: Hello
Quote:
Evidence that 'real' reasons for the war were completely fabricated? (Downing Street Minutes)
1. Wrong. The Downing Street memo seems to show that that the war was in planning before 9/11, not that the "reasons for the war were completely fabricated".
2. The memo does not mention oil anywhere, nor does it provide proof that the war was an oil war.
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:52 am Post subject: Re: Hello
It's open ended, and one where neither party is trying to win, but two or more are exploring evidence to see if they can fit it together to allow new common insight.
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:13 am Post subject: Re: Hello
TheStorm wrote:
Long time lurker, first time poster here.
Many people here, for example, seem to believe that the Iraq war is an oil war ( ). I also think its unrealistic to think that PO will have the same effects everywhere. Anyway, I look forward to debate and discussion with you all!
Iraq war may or may not be about "Oil". We Canadian agree with Cindy Sheehan that American are killing, raping, and murdering Iraqis to please Israel. Her son was murder by American’s Government and so were Iraqi Children. Only a fool will believe anything else. We all know American have supported Israel in every Near East conflict. Other people can read Colin Campbell's interview from Global Public Media for more.
Personally, I don't really think that you are interested in "debate" if Israel is thrown in, you only wanted to give your opinion why Iraqis are being murder, raped, and killed by American, and Brits.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 599 Location: The Pit of Despair
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Hello
I don't think there is going to be a smoking gun anywhere that shows this war is about oil, but there are clues.
1) VP Cheney speech states something to the effect that regarding the future of oil exploration "the middle east is where the prize ultimately lies". The use of the word "prize" is telling to me. Prizes are won, as are wars...as are drilling contracts. It is ambiguous, and could go either way.
2) Protection of the oil production facilities was a primary military concern, and President Bush was quoted numerous times telling Iraqis not to sabotage their oil facilities when the US & coalition forces invaded.
There are more clues, but no hard evidence. It is like trying to figure out why the Fed does the things that they do, or trying to figure out what Greenspan means when he says different things. You look at all the facts and make an educated guess. Or you blindly trust the rhetoric of politicians trying to get elected.
I believe in making educated guesses, and it is pretty clear to me that oil is at least one piece of the puzzle regarding the Iraq conflict. I don't believe that Saddam Hussein posed any greater threat to the US than many other dictators. The removal of Hussein from power should have sent a strong message to other nations that it is unwise to openly defy the will of the US. However, some leaders seem not to have gotten the message...
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). I also think its unrealistic to think that PO will have the same effects everywhere. I think some countries will land with some difficulty, while others will come crashing down.
Proof? 
