For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Joined: Jul 29, 2005 Posts: 252 Location: Show-Me State
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:46 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Good day From Pheba From the Farm:
I just finished reading the book. Checked it out from the library. My own copy is on order and I will pick it up when I go to town.
Mr. Simmons did a wonderful job. The book was a very hard read for me. The first part of the book was history and was easy to read. The second part of the book is very technical and not an easy read, but I got it.
If what he is saying is true, and I do not doubt him, then we are in for a world of hurt.
I only have one complaint about the book. I wish that he would have included a glossary of technical terms. I am technically challenged.
Terms like:
water cut
dew point
bubble point
I know these are probably common knowledge to most folks, but I hd a difficult time understand parts of the book because I did not understand these terms.
I am assuming water cut means the percentage of water removed with the oil.
The other two terms I do not understand at all.
Also, I do not know what a gas cap is. (not the one on your car, the one in the well!)
Pheba
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Phebagirl wrote:
bubble point .I do not know what a gas cap is.
The way I understood it is that gas is part of the oil as long as it stays under pressure. Once the pressure lowers (due to the extraction of oil) the gas "bubbles out" of the crude oil and rises to the top of the field where it forms a cap.
As a measure to keep the pressure up water is injected in the flanks of the fields which eventually is becomming part of the extracted oil, hence the term water cut.
The pumping horses that you see in the old fields of the USA are unknown in Saudi-Arabia since most oil comes from a few gigantic fields and the primary reason for water injection is to keep them under pressure so that the oil flows out by itself.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 60 Location: Somewhere in Saudi Arabia
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:46 am Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Unfortunately, it will appeal to non-technical people because it SEEMS that Simmons knows what he is talking about. To the Professional Petroleum Engineer, who has worked the fields he talks about, it is rubbish.
He should stick to his area of expertize. I got a lot of laughs out of his descriptions, particularly the effect of pressure drop on gas evolution, and the impact on oil.
It's unfortunate that he didn't seem to ask a reservoir engineer to explain what he was reading, and seemed only to discuss things with an ex-Aramco drilling engineer. Anyone working in the oil patch would know that drilling engineers rarely understand more than 'making hole
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 60 Location: Somewhere in Saudi Arabia
Posted: Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:57 am Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Let's see.....Simmons equates water injection with a problem, where the only issue is lack of natural water drive..so producing water is not bad in the strict sense, just anticipated.
Safaniya has NO gravel packed wells, and a substantial part of the field hasn't even been drilled. The field is a swing producer, so just because it hasn't been produced at capacity doesn't mean it can't be. There is no gas in Safaniya, so that section is rubbish.
There is an assumption that all the professional engineering expertise (both expat and saudi) don't know what they are doing. If things were like he said, he could have got current Aramcon's talking to him. Like most companies, employees of Aramco don't tell outsiders the intimate details of what is going on (professional integrity).
Saudi Arabia is a soverign nation, not an oil company. They have no requirement to tell America anything.
Finally, of course the oil will run out. Fields are generally produced at a plateau rate such that you don't destroy the reservoirs, and don't overinvest.
Anyway, if I read 200 Economist articles, I would feel slightly embarrased to then go head-to-head with Greenspan.
End-of-the-day, perhaps he will be right for all the wrong reasons, and I don't have a problem with the issue being raised. I'm all for the oil price rise, makes it easier to get work, and less likely I will get run-off.
Posted: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:46 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
spartacus wrote:
End-of-the-day, perhaps he will be right for all the wrong reasons, and I don't have a problem with the issue being raised. I'm all for the oil price rise, makes it easier to get work, and less likely I will get run-off.
Thanks for the post. Sometimes I need some relief from the all-so-tense expectations of some of the fellow posters here "awaiting the end".
Last edited by albente on Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:51 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Spartacus said
Quote:
Unfortunately, it will appeal to non-technical people because it SEEMS that Simmons knows what he is talking about. To the Professional Petroleum Engineer, who has worked the fields he talks about, it is rubbish.
I've noted the same. His terminology on much stuff is wrong...his understanding of how reservoirs work is also pretty simplified. Some stuff is right...but the assumption that 30% water cut is the death knell of the reservoir is stupid at best. All you need is extensive water handling capacity...oil is pricey enough now that a few extra water knockout facilities would be worth it and reinjection would probably also be pretty economic. Many reservoirs around the world still produce at 90% water cut. The danger is water bypass and from what I've seen of the production profiles presented by Aramco last year this is not a problem (if you can believe them). I am currently compiling a list of reservoir engineering faux pas that Simmons made in his book...care to help out?
That all being said if you start to put together a bunch of the info that is presented by the Saudis themselves recently these fields are already at 40 - 50% recovery. They predict 70% but if the reservoir is in the least bit anisotropic (I am very familiar with the Arab from a country very close by and indeed it is somewhat anisotropic) and if that is coupled with variable oil viscosity I have my doubts. And I think the smoking gun is the fact that most of the expats have been taken off working on the oil fields and are instead working on the gas (at least that's what my friends in Aramco tell me). You can read that in a number of ways...perhaps as the Saudis say they are merely trying to preserve oil for export rather than using it for fuel locally (desalination plants), or you could be suspicious and think maybe they are keeping the expats from seeing the problems...or perhaps they are actively seeking gas....bringing in foreign companies to look for it simply because they are extremely worried about their oil reserves. Having spent a fair bit of my life in the Middle East I understand the Arab mentality enough to know that they would never admit to a problem...and in terms of them reporting anything...maybe when pigs fly out of my backside...and why would they report? If North American oil companies were not forced to report by SEC and OSC regs they would not either.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 60 Location: Somewhere in Saudi Arabia
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Unfortunately I can't get into details, as I would breach signed agreements. Nevertheless, his comments on Berri, Qatif, Safaniya, Ain Dar (Ghawar) were well shy of the mark. He wrote off entire reservoirs which have huge reserves, noted at least one reservoir has having no potential when it is actually producing 500,000bpd.
The issue of expats working on gas is untrue. There are still many expats on the oil fields.
However, like most oil companies, Aramco has not kept up recruitment and most expats are in their 40s to 50s, and are cashed-up. There are a lot of jobs in the US and elsewhere at the moment, and Aramco is struggling to maintain the head-count of experienced people.
I think the company wll struggle to meet the increased demand due to lack of materials (people, rigs, construction etc).
Be interesting to see the impact on rig count is Saudi and elsewhere if demand keeps rising and prices stay up.
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:31 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
In the end, since the status of the resevoirs are state secrets, nobody knows the exact status of all the fields, even the engineers who have signed NDA's with the Saudi's. Many a company tells their own employees how great everything is to keep the moral up and then WHAMO the chains go on the front doors. I suspect only the Royal Family has the complete picture of all the oil fields.
At least with the Simmons book, one can get an idea of what is going on. The point to take home is that these oil fields have a finite amount of which there is a lot of double talk on. Once you take away some of the mystery of Saudi Arabia away, PO becomes a lot more understandable as a real event.
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Quote:
The issue of expats working on gas is untrue. There are still many expats on the oil fields.
Hmmm...maybe my sources are gilding the lily. They did confine their argument to G&G staff. The expats you refer to are they 1. reservoir engineers, geologists who would have access to logs, reserve numbers etc. 2. topside field crews who might not have as much below ground info but have more knowledge of production figures or 3. consultants who might get lots of info but would be bound tighter by confidentiality? I imagine not anyone expat has access to much more than bits and bobs of the overall information?
I wonder if the Saudis have been all that free with all the information then why someone hasn't gone "rogue" and divulged info? Even given confidentiality agreements you would have thought someone with knowledge either way who is in his retirement years might have sent some info somewhere to support either side of the argument anonamoulsly? Especially since the Saudis are trying to play a bit of damage control on Simmons statements wonder why they haven't called on one of the expat experts to attest to the reserves or produceability?
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:18 am Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
I'm talking about reservoir engineers and geologists. We are the people who work intimately with the fields.
To Bruin: we are the people who estimate the reserves, prepare the development plans, look at the requirements to achieve the targets required, while still making sure the reservoirs don't get destroyed. We are the people who estimate the reserves, and tell management. It doesn't work the other way around.
I will make the point again...Simmons is a Merchant Banker with his own agenda. He is not a technical person, and reading 200 papers will not make him one.
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:59 am Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Anonymous wrote:
I will make the point again...Simmons is a Merchant Banker with his own agenda. He is not a technical person, and reading 200 papers will not make him one.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 60 Location: Somewhere in Saudi Arabia
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:07 am Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
Like all commodities, there will at some point be a physical/economic limit to production.
I will point out the example of coal, where reserves remain in Europe, but economic and social conditions are such that in France and England the production has ceased or is negligable compared to the past.
This does not mean that the coal is not present. Likewise, there are not too many Cornish tin mines around for similar reasons.
The Peak oil argument is one of timing, not occurrence. Sooner or later we will be in depletion mode. I think it is fanciful to assume that any resource is infinite.
However, there is a peak 'production' level that is governed by reservoir deliverability on the one hand, and willingness to invest in additional infrastructure on the other.
Since the last oil price shock, world demand has increased, but prices collapsed. Oil went out of everyones view as it was relatively cheap. It's only the current speculative bubble that has everyone concerned.
Joined: Sep 30, 2004 Posts: 975 Location: On one of the blades of the fan
Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2005 10:42 am Post subject: Re: "Twilight in the Desert:..." Matthew R. Simmon
I was very impressed with the book, but like Matt Simmons, I'm not a technical person, and of course we are all befuddled by the secrecy of the Saudi regime.
I'd be very interested to see a critique of the book posted by well-informed parties such as the posters above.
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