I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:56 am Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas!
thorn wrote:
"Do not run out and buy extra gas!" Too late!:
link
Looks like cattle being herded for slaughter
ouch _________________ If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4863 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:04 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
I've really wondered how municipilaties are going to handle $4 gas. I'm sure no one budgeted for this type of number. I have a feeling the snowplows will be out a little less this winter.
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:35 am Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas!
[sarcasm: ON]So much for: demand destruction will hit when oil/gas prices rise further. It seems demand goes up faster than oil and gas. Apparently everybody wants it now that it is expensive.
Luckily us peak oilers have prepared before the price spikes, and are now using their own strategic gas reserves and stay away from the pumps this week.
Could this get even worse when trucks can't get fuel to get food to the stores? When are we going to see people hoarding all the food and create a food shortage.[sarcasm: OFF]
Maybe it is not such a good idea to tell these people about PO now, better wait till this madness has passed (in about 1-2 weeks)
It's good that this time it is temporary.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:50 am Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion
Note, from weekly petroleum supply report, the inventories were low for some regions even before Katrina. See where some of the shortages occuring now, seem to be in "Lower Atlantic" and "Midwest" regions, as defined below. So this was building up as a problem BEFORE Katrina, she just gave the knock out punch.
Most recent weekly motor gasoline inventories compared to August 2004:
East Coast (PADD I)-------------------96%
New England (PADD IA)---------------146%
Central Atlantic (PADD IB)------------95%
Lower Atlantic (PADD IC)--------------88%
Midwest (PADD II)----------------------86%
Gulf Coast (PADD III)-----------------101%
Rocky Mountain (PADD IV-------------71%
West Coast (PADD V)------------------91%
Finished Motor Gasoline----------------91%
Reformulated---------------------------93%
Conventional----------------------------90%
The East Coast (PADD 1) comprises New England Subdistrict (PADD 1A): CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT; Central Atlantic Subdistrict (PADD 1B) : DE, DC, MD, NJ, NY, PA; and Lower Atlantic Subdistrict (PADD 1C) : FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WVA.
The Midwest (PADD 2) is IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, OK, SD, TN, WI.
The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is AL, AR, LA, MS, NM, TX.
Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) is CO, ID, MT, UT, WY.
The West Coast (PADD 5) is AK, AZ, HI, NV, OR, WA; plus Calif.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 34 Location: South of the Mason Dixon Line
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:50 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
My first post ever...glad I found you bunch o crazies. A Sears service store here in NC is syphoning gas from the cars in for service...Friends of mine filled up before heading to the Sears and find over 1/4 tank gone upon pick up. Obviously it is an employee, but here we go...
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 812 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:21 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
lawnchair wrote:
jd - Sounds serious. I know you're in hilly country there and probably spread out... but I've thought about our local small-town water guys, on meter reads in an F-250 with nothing but a T-bar key in the bed. Any ability to walk more, and rationalize the walking/biking routes for meter reads? I guess this goes for the USPS too... utility tricycles anyone?
We use a small ford ranger for meter reading - unfortunately, it has to be 4 wheel drive in order to make it into a lot of the places we serve - very mountainous. Still, it gets better mileage than some of our larger trucks, which we also have to have to pull generators, compressors, backhoe trailers, etc. The few places where they can walk, I have them walk. But it's few and far between here because it's mostly rural.
What I've been doing in the past 2 years to try and increase efficiency and decrease driving & reading time is have stricter requirements on the location and layout of meters in new development and during service renewals. Except where impossible, we require contractors use double-meter boxes on new subdivisions so that the meter reader can stop once and read two meters, and we only use material for one service tap to serve two houses. We also require places with multiple meters (say a townhouse development) to have the meters banked in the same area - i.e., a 5 townhouse unit would have all 5 of its meters in the same location. This also cuts down on driving.
These are small things, though. They help, but ultimately, short of having some ultra-powerful electric cars, we are going to burn a lot of fuel regardless. You can't push a backhoe 5 miles to a main line break. _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 812 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
Rabbit wrote:
What about asking your drivers if one might own and ride a motorcycle? You can cover a lot more meters on a Motorcycle getting 50 MPG.
Ha! Only if I can get a never-ending supply of meter readers...
Seriously, it is dangerous as it is for a meter reader to slow down, come to a stop, or pull off the road to read meters right now. And this is in a pickup truck, with a warning light, and clear signage all over it that states "Caution - vehicle makes frequent stops". These guys have to wear bright green vests just to keep them from getting hit by cars. I would have a lot of dead meter readers if they had to try and do the same thing by motorcycle. Not to mention it's not too easy to drag around tools, keys, and replacement parts on a motorcycle.... _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 34 Location: South of the Mason Dixon Line
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:26 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
Of course toungue in check on that...everyone around me, including family, think I'm nuts. I have followed this mess for 10 years and am seeing the results as I thought might unfold. A good % of the posts I have seen on this forum are crazy indeed, like a fox.
So the first looting in NC has occured, it's a shame it came from the "Extreme Home Makeover" sponsor.
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:26 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
Probably not a good idea to fill the tank before getting the car serviced. Even if there aren't thieving employees, some work requires that the tank be part-empty.
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:42 am Post subject: Re: Gasoline update for East Tennessee/Western North Carolin
And of course the main line is going to break just about the time you can't get more diesel.
Has the county called you in for any emergency or planning proposals?If shortages continue for the next few days,will it affect the treatment plant?From a distance,it seems you are sitting in a precarious position and I'm interested in hearing how it will be handled.
All the best in anxious times.
NO More Forums!
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:42 am Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion
It's really strange, this still is no story at all here. I mean they mention that gas rose as high as 6$, but they make it sound like it is only immediate vicinity of the desaster. Gas prizes rose here as well, but there are only the usual moaning stories, no real alarm.
But lines at gas stations, shortages, hoarding all over the country, one would think that this story should be huge as it could have huge impacts not only in the US but on the world economy? Am I missing something?
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:00 pm Post subject: Gasoline Prices - Info and Predictions
I wanted to create a place for posts about gas prices, whether market, wholesale, or retail. Either specific predictions, or actual observations and reports.
My disclaimer is that I purchased unleaded November futures before the storm struck - and not being in the US, it means I profit if prices look like they will go/stay up beyond mid-October. Which is emotionally quite conflicting.
My prediction: with an estimate of approx 1mb/d reduced gasolene refining since Sat, and by Friday about three days typical-usage worth of what was previously inventory, being sucked into consumer storage (in full car tanks and other containers), we will see a drop in inventory of about 30 to 35 mb of inventory in the next EIA report on Wednesday.
Despite that most of this will be a one-time drawdown, as people build their own personal inventories, it will send the market into a spin, and futures for October delivery will probably spike from about $3/gallon (currently at $2.40/gallon) to around $5/gallon...
If you're in the US, and plan to stockpile, I advise doing it before Wednesday - but perhaps after the weekend, when things have maybe calmed down a little... _________________ Doomerosity now at 2 (occasionaly 3, was 4)
Currently (mostly) taking a break from posting at po.com. Don't trust the false prophets of doom - keep reading, keep learning, keep challenging your assum
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion
Free wrote:
It's really strange, this still is no story at all here. I mean they mention that gas rose as high as 6$, but they make it sound like it is only immediate vicinity of the desaster. Gas prizes rose here as well, but there are only the usual moaning stories, no real alarm.
But lines at gas stations, shortages, hoarding all over the country, one would think that this story should be huge as it could have huge impacts not only in the US but on the world economy? Am I missing something?
I think it is a conspiracy to prevent world wide panick and hog up all the gasoline in the world. I heard Europe is going to send a couple of tankers of gasoline and jet fuel. I don't think this will arrive in time.
Danger! Danger!
Bush will take a lot of heat for this.
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