How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
I think we need more discussion about North American natural gas here because I think most posters are from North America. Natural gas is critical for electricity and food production. It's nearly as important as light crude. It will be interesting to see how tight oil will affect liquid natural gas imports to North America.
To reference another post, North America has a Perfect Storm brewing. The storm contains elements of dangerous deficits, social security and medicare in trouble, rising gap between the rich and poor, peak oil, natural gas cliff, and troops spread thin that could lead to a draft. The collapse of the United States seems very likely within two decades at most. After listening to Bush and Kerry, I don't think we will have the leadership to get through all these problems. We need a president who can come out and tell the truth about the grim road we are on, and who can take command of the budget in order to preserve America for the long term. It seems very unlikely. _________________ "If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"George W. Bush loves poor people. He keeps making more of them." -unkn
If I remember correctly NA gas production is in its plateau phase where new production merely off sets the existing declines. What I think we are waiting for is the "production cliff" where supply drops dramatically.
If thats what you are refering to, then my vote is for Peak Oil first, but not by much. The first few post peak years will be economically lousy but otherwise survivable. Then as luck would have it, NA gas production will collapse, leaving us in a world of hurt. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:49 pm Post subject:
If you are talking North american gas, then this will peak before world oil. If you are talking world gas reserves then oil will peak 20 years before hand.
There must be a limit on how much countries can import of LNG , rather than by pipeline? This would delay gas production peak by some way?
Also I understand that gas exploration is relatively young compared to oil(except in North America). So there is potential to find a lot more, particularly in the ME and Russia.
Joined: Jul 07, 2004 Posts: 434 Location: Berkeley CA
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:00 pm Post subject:
This world still have a large supply of natural gas. It is North America that is in trouble.
Natural gas is a fairly new resource worldwide. According to a book, the Middle East, and the Former USSR holds 70% of the worlds natural gas reserves. North America only accounts for 8%. Alot of the natural gas in the middle east havn't even been tapped yet. So worldwide we still have an abundent supply of natural gas.
The problem is getting the natural has over here which is the problem. But currently today we have around 100 LNG ships around the world. _________________ my page:
www.myspace.com/peakoil
Here's a site for coal, gas, and oil reserves. _________________ "If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"George W. Bush loves poor people. He keeps making more of them." -unkn
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:18 am Post subject:
Peak oil aside, would a crisis in natural gas in North America bring on recession?
Would a possible scenario be that NG causes recession in the states leading to a decrease in oil demand which delays the peak? Or would it make it worse as the US draws in more oil for heating/cooking/electricity?
I'm not trying to clutch at straws just thinking about all possible scenarios
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