Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:50 am Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
WildSparrow -
Last Monday I saw the British government's cheif scientist interviewed on TV over Katrina. He was very clear on the strong probability that the unprecedented GoM sea temperatures (that changed the storm from a Cat.1 to a Cat 5 in just 24 hours) were an outcome of Global Warming.
He spoke of the growing global scientific consensus of this origin for Katrina's destructive power. The implication is that what we now see in sudden global oil problems is a shock of Climate Destabilization interacting with the stresses of Peak Oil.
I suggest that being committed to action over one while being complacent over the other is pointless and, as in NO, lethally dangerous and economically ruinous. I'm not accusing you of complacency by the way, but rather those who hype the likes of tar sands and oil shales for profit.
They ignore the fact that far from increasing our CO2 pollution via these options, we urgently need to cut it globally by 2/3rds, just to stop making the problem of excess atmospheric CO2 worse.
Given also that the scale of growth of these FFFs (filthiest fossil fuels) required to keep ahead of annual oil reserves' depletion is way beyond anything ever acheived in the days of cheap oil, they are, in reality, a non-starter.
So, in answer to your question, could they perhaps delay the onset of PO, I'd have to say no, not a chance.
Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:18 am Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
Sorry I keep on editing this because I don't know what I want to say really apart from that I agree with what Baby says below. At 3.5 units for every 1 unit of energy invested these sands are no where near as good as oil was and will not be able to keep business as usual.
Last edited by Raxozanne on Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:01 am; edited 4 times in total
Joined: Aug 17, 2004 Posts: 3541 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:28 am Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
Quote:
Drop heaters down the shaft. Cook the rock until the hydrocarbons boil off, the lightest and most desirable first.
Power heaters with?
Quote:
So around the perimeter of the productive site, you drill lots more shafts, only 8 to 12 feet apart, put in piping, and pump refrigerants through it.
Power super-giantic freezer with?
When you wish upon a star
Sitting at a table in Las Vegas...
When you wish upon a star
You dreams come true
and you get something for nothing.
So maybe they should look for oil in Walt Disney World.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 994 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
And between the second and third paragraph of this article explaining why you needn't worry about oil is an ad for a GM SUV.
Newspapers are roughly 50% by weight automobile and suburban real estate ads. They would not exist without them. Newspapers don't dare publish anything suggesting that auto suburbia has anything less than a rosy future.
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
To be viable, I would think they would be using nuclear power for the heating/refrigeration. It would be more efficient than normal, as waste heat from the plant can be used directly as the heat source.
This whole oil shale thing does not seem to be about "making" energy (yes im well aware you cant make energy) it seems to be about using a inconvenient energy source (nuclear power) to make convenient energy source you can use in your car. I say make, as it looks like you end up putting more energy in than you get out, although the energy out is of higher value.
Joined: Jun 28, 2005 Posts: 330 Location: san jose CA
Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:18 am Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
Ok, It seems like anytime a new technology or potential means to extract oil gets brought up its almost always shot down by the doomers sighting global warming concerns. However signifigant that problem is or may be its still not the issue here. Can this postpone peak oil ? Id say theres a good chance of it. They state an EROEI of 3.5:1 which is better than the rate of tar sands. That link did state that was only for the energy envolved in heating it rather then the refrigoration too but that might have just been overlooked in the article. It was not explicitly mentioned by the way... and I doubt Shell would simply forget to factor that in before investing millions of dollars into this. Also with any really small scale experimental procedure like this the total costs of energy and what not in ratio to energy recovered would be alot higher then a large scale comerically viable project. Its like the first experimental nuclear plants of the first time somebody did research setting up a small scale offshore drilling rig.
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 92 Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:43 am Post subject: Re: Viable way of getting oil from shale
backstop wrote:
WildSparrow -
Last Monday I saw the British government's cheif scientist interviewed on TV over Katrina. He was very clear on the strong probability that the unprecedented GoM sea temperatures (that changed the storm from a Cat.1 to a Cat 5 in just 24 hours) were an outcome of Global Warming.
He spoke of the growing global scientific consensus of this origin for Katrina's destructive power. The implication is that what we now see in sudden global oil problems is a shock of Climate Destabilization interacting with the stresses of Peak Oil.
I suggest that being committed to action over one while being complacent over the other is pointless and, as in NO, lethally dangerous and economically ruinous. I'm not accusing you of complacency by the way, but rather those who hype the likes of tar sands and oil shales for profit.
They ignore the fact that far from increasing our CO2 pollution via these options, we urgently need to cut it globally by 2/3rds, just to stop making the problem of excess atmospheric CO2 worse.
I agree with you. I was just hoping that perhaps these alternative sources of oil might buy us some time to make the transition to a more sustainable way of life a little smoother and less panicked. Of course, the chances of governments seeing this way are non-existent. But it might buy a little time for those of us who are thinking past our next election results.
On one small test plot about 20 feet by 35 feet, on land Shell owns, they started heating the rock in early 2004. "Product" - about one-third natural gas, two-thirds light crude - began to appear in September 2004. They turned the heaters off about a month ago, after harvesting about 1,500 barrels of oil.
While we were trying to do the math, O'Connor told us the answers. Upwards of a million barrels an acre, a billion barrels a square mile. And the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin, most of which is in Colorado, covers more than a thousand square miles - the largest fossil fuel deposits in the world.
Wow.
This article gives the casual reader the idea that there is 1000 Giga barrels of oil to be had from Shell's new shale technology. But if the stated recovery data is accurate and one does one's own arithmetic based on 1500 bbls recovered from a plot of land 20 by 35 feet (i.e 700 square feet) one gets 93,000 bbls per acre , 60 million barrels per square mile and 60 Giga barrels per thousand square miles. Now that's a goodly amount of oil (especially for Shell Oil' share holders) but it falls a bit short of the Wow and promise (1000 Giga barrels) implied by the article. There is an apparent factor of 16 discrepancy here. If my own arithmetic is wrong someone please correct me?
In-situ retorting
In-situ retorting entails heating oil shale in place, extracting the liquid from the ground, and transporting it to an upgrading or refining facility. Because in-situ retorting does not involve mining or aboveground spent shale disposal, it offers an alternative that does not permanently modify land surface topography and that may be significantly less damaging to the environment. Shell Oil Company has successfully conducted small-scale field tests of an insitu process based on slow underground heating via thermal conduction. Larger-scale operations are required to establish technical viability, especially with regard to avoiding adverse impacts on groundwater quality. Shell anticipates that, in contrast to the cost estimates for mining and surface retorting, the petroleum products produced by their thermally conductive in-situ method will be competitive at crude oil prices in the mid-$20s per barrel. The company is still developing the process, however, and cost estimates could easily increase as more information is obtained and more detailed designs become available.
Development Timeline.
Currently, no organization with the management, technical, and financial wherewithal to develop oil shale resources has announced its intent to build commercial-scale production facilities. A firm decision to commit funds to such a venture is at least six years away because that is the minimum length of time for scale-up and process confirmation work needed to obtain the technical and environmental data required for the design and permitting of a first-of-a-kind commercial operation. At least an additional six to eight years will be required to permit, design, construct, shake down, and confirm performance of that initial commercial operation. Consequently, at least 12 and possibly more years will elapse before oil shale development will reach the production growth phase. Under high growth assumptions, an oil shale production level of 1 million barrels per day is probably more than 20 years in the future, and 3 million barrels per day is probably more than 30 years into the future.
My emphasis. _________________ Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley
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