How bad a crash are people expecting?

gg3 · Posted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 11:38 pm Post subject:

Guest's item seems pretty sensible.

Re. manufacturing coming back to the US: keep in mind that much of the urban and near-urban real estate that was previously devoted to manufacturing, has been turned into shopping malls and trendy lofts. Getting that land back for more basic uses is going to be interesting, and at very least expensive.

Re. mass transport: one other factor to consider: if you jam people together in crowded vehicles, you create the ideal condition for the propagation of contagious diseases. Think bioterrorism, or if that's too dramatic, think flu pandemics, and if even that sounds too apocalyptic, think of antibiotic resistant bacterial infections.

DevilHouse · Coal Joined: Sep 15, 2004 Posts: 12

I agree with both points mainly, especially the worry of a rise of infectious diseases. As for the cost to renew urban areas into productive industry, it might not be quite as expensive as you think. Keep in mind that one of the symptoms of an economy in mass recession is an extreme devaluation of land, especially inner city land. Think back to Manhattan in the early 80s.

gg3 · Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2004 7:47 pm Post subject:

Yes, that would be a bright spot of light in an otherwise dark landscape: a serious drop in land prices and real estate generally. People will still have their homes, they just won't have the speculation-value of them.

Western societies are long overdue for land reform.