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Peakoil.com :: View topic - THE OPEC Thread (merged) pt 1
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THE OPEC Thread (merged) pt 1
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knoppix2004
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:49 pm    Post subject: Saudis say OPEC will not meet projected oil demand in 10-15 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Saudis say OPEC will not meet projected oil demand in 10-15 years
By Finfacts Team Jul 6, 2005 link
Quote:
OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, will be unable to meet projected western oil demand in 10 to 15 years, Saudi officials have warned.
At today's prices, the world will need the cartel to boost its production from 30m to 50m barrels a day by 2020 to meet rapidly rising demand, according to the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog.

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knoppix2004
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Helpless, Helpless OPEC. . . Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nomoil wrote:
Quote:
"Because this is, at root, a problem of demand outstripping supply, OPEC must respond at its meeting on 19 September to rising demand by raising production," Gordon Brown, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) said on Tuesday.

And if OPEC can't?

I just posted a News, but this quote is worthy of being posted again and again. They (Opec) have said that they are helpless.
Here
Quote:

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/printer_10002504.shtml
According to the Financial Times, senior Saudi Arabian energy officials have privately warned US and European counterparts that OPEC would have an “extremely difficult time” meeting that demand. Saudi Arabia calculates there is a 4.5m b/d gap between what the world needs and what the kingdom can provide.

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knoppix2004
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Helpless, Helpless OPEC. . . Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nomoil wrote:
Granted, but that's precisely the problem. There is no real measure of "volume of exports actually shipped." Only the Saudi's no how much they actually ship. The rest of the world can only guess. That's why I said price is the only real indicator, because what else is there?

No, problem is bigger then that. Main Stream media is not even reporting the truth. Well it never has, and we all know that. I have posted many time before that OPEC has admitted the truth, but media is not reporting it. Don’t forget it, mainstream media is not even reporting Indonesia, Iran, and UK are exporting. Oh you guy didn’t know Iran is buying an oil. They call it “refine gasoline for cars”.
Ps: We DON'T have to guess anymore. link

Pass it on!
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BabyPeanut
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:19 am    Post subject: Saudis say... Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
Saudi Oil Minister Says High Prices Have Yet to Hurt Demand (link)

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The oil minister for Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest oil producer, said surging prices have yet to curtail energy demand. He said the nation backs proposals to increase production quotas at next week's meeting.

The nation ``absolutely'' supports higher output targets, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, told reporters today in Vienna, where the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Sept. 19 and 20.
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LadyRuby
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:41 pm    Post subject: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump
Quote:
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may agree to offer customers every barrel of oil that members can produce, effectively suspending the group's quota system that has regulated supply for about two decades.
... OPEC tomorrow will start its two-day meeting to deliberate an increase in the official output ceiling, now at 28 million barrels a day for the members outside of Iraq. Those members produced 28.55 million barrels a day last month.
"The market is very well supplied,'' the United Arab Emirates' al-Hamli told reporters today in Vienna. ``If the quota goes up then what difference would that make? We already produce 500,000 barrels a day above the quota.''
Saudi Arabia's al-Naimi yesterday said he already has offered to produce at 11 million barrels a day, its full capacity. The nation is pumping at about 9.5 million barrels a day now.
"We have had no response whatsoever'' to the offer of 11 million barrels a day, al-Naimi said.
... OPEC this week lowered its forecast for growth in oil demand for a fifth month, saying consumption in 2005 will grow by 1.42 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 83.49 million. That's 160,000 barrels a day less than OPEC estimated last month. Next year, demand will grow by 1.52 million barrels a day, 100,000 barrels less than previously forecast, OPEC said.
"I will support whatever we can do to stabilize the oil market,'' Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told reporters today in Vienna. "Is there any demand for crude oil? The answer is no.''

Rising Production
OPEC members including Iraq have increased production for seven straight months, pumping 30.38 million barrels of crude a day in August, according to Bloomberg estimates, disregarding the quotas. That was the highest output since October, when members pumped 30.5 million barrels a day, the most since 1979.
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MicroHydro
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:57 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Good. China needs those barrels to fill her storage tanks.
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some_guy282
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:05 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Havn't we more or less heard this before a couple of times in recent months? The Saudi's admitting they have no more spare capacity?
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UIUCstudent01
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:24 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

some_guy282 wrote:
Havn't we more or less heard this before a couple of times in recent months? The Saudi's admitting they have no more spare capacity?

That's what I thought...
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some_guy282
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:36 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So we've gone from: "Don't worry, we'll increase production!" - Last year
to: "I'm givin' it all I got cappin'! If I push 'er any harder, the ships gonna blow!" - this year.
Correct?
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something_awfull
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:49 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

"It's production increase, Jim, but not as we know it."
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Cyrus
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:59 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I sense damage to the wells is coming...
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LadyRuby
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:35 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Isn't the quota system the main thing that they regulate? If they do away with the quota, is there any need for OPEC?
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marek
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:49 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This sounds eerily familiar: the Texas Railroad Commission stopped prorationing right before the U.S. Lower 48 peak.
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UIUCstudent01
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:35 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Alright now -weren't they not following the quota system almost officially now since March? (But not at top capacity..)

And since the main bottleneck is refineries... won't this do jack squat for oil prices.

Are they saying they are very close to their own peak? (If they can only produce 2 more million barrels more.. which by the way has me confused because it was only one more million barrels per day in March...)
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ubercynicmeister
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:58 pm    Post subject: Re: OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

LadyRuby wrote:
OPEC May Offer Every Barrel of Oil Members Can Pump
Quote:
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may agree to offer customers every barrel of oil that members can produce, effectively suspending the group's quota system that has regulated supply for about two decades.
...

HECK, the same thing happened in 1970, when the Texas Railroad Commission allowed unlimited pumping from US reserves....and that was the year the US Oil production peaked.
OOOPS.
Looks like the Saudis are at top production.
Hmm, can anyone say "Hubbert's Peak"?
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