How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Aug 13, 2005 Posts: 262 Location: Sydney, Australia.
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Leanan wrote:
TheStormTrack.com puts it into perspective:
Quote:
6:45 CDT Update: Aircraft recon is now reporting a central pressure of 898 mb. This makes Hurricane Rita the third most intense hurricane ever record in the Atlantic. This places Rita behind Gilbert in 1988 with 888mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane with 892 mb. Last month Hurricane Katrina recorded 902 mb. It is very possible that the actual pressure is lower than indicated because NHC admits that the dropsonde missed its target. When the winds catch up to the pressure falls, we could easily see them exceed 185 mph. Wow...
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:35 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Lukethedrifter wrote:
I'm in Austin. Looks like it's going to be east of us. They say we'll get 50 to 70 mph winds. Bunch of rain. That's if it goes east. I guess, depending on how strong it is when it makes landfall, we could see hurricane strenghth winds. In austin. Also, in Austin we have the Austin City Limit's music fesitival all weekend. Supposed to be 60,000 people there to watch. In the 60 mph winds I guess. I glad I decided not to purchase tickets this year, that doesn't sound like fun.
I'm in Austin too, and I think that the ACL will be a complete bust this year, if it's still on at all. Nobody is going to put up with weather like that, and I doubt concert organizers are willing to put patrons' (not to mention performers) lives at risk with an outdoor festival. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:10 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
The tight coherence of the various projections of Rita's track is starting to break up. One has swung way East and most of the others have gone wobbly, rather than being smooth curves.
I guess this means that landfall is in reality getting less predictable ?
regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Definitions:
Short: less than 10 days disruption.
Medium: 10 to 30 days disruption.
Long: 30 to 60 days disruption.
Very Long: over 60 days disruption.
Categories are cumulative - short includes medium and long
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/20/2005 15:18
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 50.3% 8.6% 7.5% 0.0%
Nat Gas 66.2% 15.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Drop in GOMEX predicted damage. Actually it dropped way lower and then went back up again. It is only as good as the weather forcast (and maybe not even that.)
Code:
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/21/2005 11:17
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 23.4% 8.1% 6.8% 0.0%
Nat Gas 33.6% 14.7% 5.8% 0.0%
Updated:
Code:
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/21/2005 17:16
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 23.8% 8.0% 6.8% 6.2%
Nat Gas 35.2% 13.5% 6.6% 1.7%
big upward revision:
Code:
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/21/2005 22:12
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 37.7% 10.0% 8.0% 1%
Nat Gas 59.8% 17.3% 6.6% 2.7%
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
I just delivered dinner to a guy who has decided to stay... on a boat.
Worst is that he is compelling his 16 year old ward to stay with him...
What an asshole.
But I'm sure people will cooperate to solve our hydrocarbon dilemma.
eventually... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Aaron, if you wanted to, not that I am recommending it, but you could perhaps view that as child endangerment...
If his mother is around, she might be a little concerned...
EDIT: The third most powerful hurricane ever recorded...with storm surges potential of 10, 20 ft or more....and they want to ride it out IN A BOAT???!?? That boat will be tossed and smashed...
Or maybe he wants to do a 'Forrest Gump" and sail out into the ocean?!?
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Aaron wrote:
I just delivered dinner to a guy who has decided to stay... on a boat.
Worst is that he is compelling his 16 year old ward to stay with him...
What an asshole.
But I'm sure people will cooperate to solve our hydrocarbon dilemma.
eventually...
Fortunately, we don't need idiots like him to solve our hydrocarbon dilemma. If we thought we had to rely on all the idiots to make any progress in the world, we'd never accomplish anything.
I do believe child endangerment charges could be brought against this fool. Then, if that works, we can bring child endangerment charges against all the people of the world who aren't taking peak oil seriously.
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Aaron wrote:
I just delivered dinner to a guy who has decided to stay... on a boat.
Worst is that he is compelling his 16 year old ward to stay with him...
Uh, Bruce Wayne has a yacht off the Texas coast? _________________ "There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on Stargate SG-1.
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Quote:
I do believe child endangerment charges could be brought against this fool. Then, if that works, we can bring child endangerment charges against all the people of the world who aren't taking peak oil seriously.
Too late. We've already jumped the shark. We had our chance. The collapse will happen (unless an ENERGY MIRACLE APPEARS), and we will fight the good fight in managing the collapse.
Joined: Oct 05, 2004 Posts: 216 Location: Back France from Japan
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
It is getting worse and worse. Not only it is a cat 5 hurricane but it is a strong cat 5!
It is likely to landfall as a cat 5 or a strong cat 4. _________________ Not mother tongue. Sorry for the mistakes.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3705 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
So as the situation stands now we have the 3rd most intense storm ever recorded headed on path that takes it straight at the 4th largest City in the US and into an area that is number one in Gas and Oil production and refining.
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:07 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Quote:
So as the situation stands now we have the 3rd most intense storm ever recorded headed on path that takes it straight at the 4th largest City in the US and into an area that is number one in Gas and Oil production and refining.
Everyone knows it's not nice to mess with Mother Nature...
And boy is she pissed! [that's angry for my British and Aussie pals.. ]
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2071 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:12 pm Post subject: BP Thunderhorse Platform
Does anyone have any recent updates about the BP Thunderhorse Platform that was listing back in July? I googled and didn't see any recent updates, and wondered what its status is and whether its in the path of Rita.
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:13 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Rita Thread (all new threads will be merged)
Eli wrote:
So as the situation stands now we have the 3rd most intense storm ever recorded headed on path that takes it straight at the 4th largest City in the US and into an area that is number one in Gas and Oil production and refining.
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