Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
in fact, with a lot of voters deserting the SDP for a more socialist alternative--the Left Party--their has clearly been a shift to the left, not the other way round as the US media would have you believe. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
btw, the date stamp on Stu's post appears to be wrong.
his post should be at the top. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 2500 Location: Ye Olde Englande
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:35 am Post subject: German Election-discussions and implications
Is it just me or is the situation in Germany destined to put further pressure on an already under strain European Union.
You have the engine of European Union growth, stuck in a situation where the most likely situation could be a grand coalition between the two leading parties. If this happened then experts are predicting that it would be extremely difficult for the ruling party to push their policies through. It has even been mentioned that re-elections would have to take place.
Either way the situation in Germany is one of uncertainty. If the Eurozone is to shake off it's current hangover it needs a strong leadership in Germany. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:42 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Don't panic.
Particularly the fear in the UK, that germany could fall into instability and insecurity, is because they are not very familiar with the political system of negotiating parties and are used to the "winner takes it all" principle.
Also the germans can't just get rid of all the problems with radical restructuring, that's a very simplistic view, the problems run down deeper.
The Germans are still the country with tremendous export success - their productivity is extremely high. But exactly here lies the problem: they are too efficient. What to do with all the people who are simply not needed in the economy? Additionally they still have the huge burden of the east.
It's a deflationary vicious cycle, the people have less and less money to spend because they have to finance the jobless, and the competition on the few jobs keeps wages low. Confidence in the future is low, people rather save than spend.
But deficit spending is not possible because of Euro, so what to do? There is no easy answer, it will be a hard painful way, but to think that quick radical action would automatically mean a change to the better is very simplistic.
That's why the current stalemate is a good thing, it forces the radicalized wings to come together in the center and be pragmatic instead of extreme.
That the germans themselves are all outcrying like the world is gonna end tomorrow is nothing new. They love to moan and see everything in black, it's their masochistic streak.
Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:02 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Quote:
That the germans themselves are all outcrying like the world is gonna end tomorrow is nothing new. They love to moan and see everything in black, it's their masochistic streak.
I know what you mean, Canadians and Germans share an ability to whine.
However, there are many skilled workers. Workers with 15-20 years of experience that are university educated & knowledge workers who simply cannot find jobs. This is a very serious problem to be 45-55 and not be able to find productive work. Firms are offshoring production to lower wage countries and streamlining head office. These well-educated persons cannot find jobs to pay for their pensions plus they are a burden on the social system. Their only chance is to perhaps work abroad taking their knowledge with them. Realistically, not everyone is so mobile.
This is a sign of a sick economy when even well-trained workers cannot find jobs. It cannot be fobbed-off as getting rid of the deadwood either. It has been going on far too long. The basic problem in Germany is that a) they pay more into the EU budget than any other EU country; b) secondly, they pay endlessly for the former eastern Europe, which is like sponsoring your own eastern European country the size of Slovakia; c) they have an inflexible workforce where unions sacrafice jobs for those who have jobs at the expense of those that do not have jobs; d) interest rates for pan-Europe are too high for Germany, and why is that? because e) because Club Med countries lied to get into the euro and benefitted from lower interest rates, but as it is a zero sum game, so jobs created in Italy or Greece came at the expense of German jobs at home.
By the way, look at any electoral map and you will see that those that voted for Green, Socialists or SPD come mainly from eastern Germany, the same as last election, versus those in western Germany that actually pay for all these handouts. It is a tax on profitable W.Germany. No one can swim long with an anchor tied to their neck. It is not just American media. Also those who live and have families in Germany can accurately tell you what the problems are.
Sure Germans complain, but in the meantime people who are not working should be. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
MrBill wrote:
However, there are many skilled workers. Workers with 15-20 years of experience that are university educated & knowledge workers who simply cannot find jobs. This is a very serious problem to be 45-55 and not be able to find productive work. Firms are offshoring production to lower wage countries and streamlining head office. These well-educated persons cannot find jobs to pay for their pensions plus they are a burden on the social system. Their only chance is to perhaps work abroad taking their knowledge with them. Realistically, not everyone is so mobile.
This is a sign of a sick economy when even well-trained workers cannot find jobs. It cannot be fobbed-off as getting rid of the deadwood either. It has been going on far too long. The basic problem in Germany is that a) they pay more into the EU budget than any other EU country; b) secondly, they pay endlessly for the former eastern Europe, which is like sponsoring your own eastern European country the size of Slovakia; c) they have an inflexible workforce where unions sacrafice jobs for those who have jobs at the expense of those that do not have jobs; d) interest rates for pan-Europe are too high for Germany, and why is that? because e) because Club Med countries lied to get into the euro and benefitted from lower interest rates, but as it is a zero sum game, so jobs created in Italy or Greece came at the expense of German jobs at home.
I've adressed some of these issues in another post, here's more comments:
- All EU members contribute to EU budget according to same rules, and Germany is not the highest per capita payer. Size of EU budget and payments there are so small they don't make any real difference.
- Unions don't sacrifice jobs, priority of share-holder value does, to blame unions for crimes of capitalism is idiotic. Unions can, however, be justifiably criticized for not showing enough solidarity to the unemployed, to the precariate, to the workers in other countries, in general showing too narrow and nationalistic interests.
- Hey, have to grant market liberators something: common market is not a zero sum game; the main growth is now in the new member states where much production and manufacturing jobs are shifting and where workers thanks to EU standards, as low and fragile they are, enjoy at least some level of social protection they would not have outside EU, so both production and demand for goods keep growing faster than without common market. Basic Fordism.
Quote:
By the way, look at any electoral map and you will see that those that voted for Green, Socialists or SPD come mainly from eastern Germany, the same as last election, versus those in western Germany that actually pay for all these handouts. It is a tax on profitable W.Germany. No one can swim long with an anchor tied to their neck. It is not just American media. Also those who live and have families in Germany can accurately tell you what the problems are.
This is very twisted picture you try to offer. Left/PDS share of votes was about 25% in the former DDR, bit higher than last time, but in West it more than doubled its support from 1-2% to 5%. Most Green votes come from West, not East where it is quite weak, and especially from big cities. SDP was about as strong in its strong areas in West (North) as in East.
Quote:
Sure Germans complain, but in the meantime people who are not working should be.
Unwillingness to employ older skilled people is not a problem limited to Germany, but most of Europe and probably US too. There are many reasons, I'll just mention couple. Bosses, especially those freshly baked by business schools don't like older workers with lot of experience and ability to question the authority and wisdom of their wet ear bosses. Even more importantly, unlike young professionals whose juice can be squeezed for many good years until they burn out for the sake of shareholder value, older workers have been already burned out or would do so only after a few years.
And in Europe people are not forced to accept McJobs of the new servant class, since in Europe even many unemployed have better standards of living (mass transit, health care etc) than working poor in US. Despite relentless corporate media brainwashing, most people here still think that economy should serve people, not the other way around as most USans indoctrinated into market fundamentalism now believe, and Germany's election result is one sign of that.
Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 1:51 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Quote:
This is very twisted picture you try to offer. Left/PDS share of votes was about 25% in the former DDR, bit higher than last time, but in West it more than doubled its support from 1-2% to 5%. Most Green votes come from West, not East where it is quite weak, and especially from big cities. SDP was about as strong in its strong areas in West (North) as in East.
Yes, sorry, I should not have included the Greens in the column with SPD votes in the East.
The past two elections have been very close between SPD/Green and CSU/CDU/FDP with only a few percentage points separating them. So there is a big difference between 5% in the west and 25% in the east. SPD is more populist and therefore appeals to less sophisticated and generally poorer voters from the former DDR. I do not like all of the CSU/CDU's policies, especially as to dual passports and Turkey, but I dislike the SPD even more. I believe Germans prefer stability to growth. That is too bad. Without growth there is no stability. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:00 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
What a bullshit MrBill, some new eastern european memebers are actually net givers to EU (unlike countries like Spain, Portugal or Ireland in the past who have been draining about 10x more per inhabitant than does the worst eastern european now).
Resources are distributed according to fair rules.
But new members have no right to use CAP funds (there is only limited support), so most money go through structural funds, which is completely fair. Regions with GDP/capita lower than some percentage of EU have right to use these funds, not all regions in eastern europe can do it, and many regions in Germany itself or other EU countries (whole cyprus) are using these funds.
Total funding from EU is about 10 euro/capita/YEAR here in Czech rep. and this is not excluding the money country pays to union (which is determined in exactly same way as for germany).
Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Quote:
What a bullshit MrBill, some new eastern european memebers are actually net givers to EU
Sorry where did I even mention CEE countries contribution to the EU budget? I didn't.
Germany is by far the largest net contributor to the EU budget sending EUR 10.65 billion more than it receives in aid or subsidies. Despite Germany's GDP per head being below the EU15 average. This reflects the fact that Germany is the largest economy; received far less regional and structural aid; and has a larger manufacturing sector than agricultural sector, which is a huge benefactor from the EU budget.
It is not a one sized rule fits all policy from the EU, but one that is negotiated by all members. Germany, the UK and the Netherlands obviously feel they pay too heavy a burden. Especially as Germany has 12.6% unemployment or 5.216 mio unemployed, and interest rates in the eurozone are too high for Germany's economy, not least of all because Greece, Italy and Portugal all lied about their finances to get into the euro and have since benefitted from membership with lower interest rates, but at a cost to higher pan-European inflation and therefore higher interest rates than Germany needs if it is to grow faster than its anemic 1% per year.
As for some new entrants having to pay. Not everyone can be a net receiver from the EU budget. If it was a rules based affair, you're right, Spain, Portugal and France would be getting less subsidies for their farmers and that money would be flowing to central eastern Europe in the form of ag subsidies and structural funds, but it isn't is it (as you pointed out)? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Quote:
b) secondly, they pay endlessly for the former eastern Europe, which is like sponsoring your own eastern European country the size of Slovakia
Sorry, I see my mistake now. That should read former eastern Germany (DDR) not eastern Europe. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:04 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
MrBill wrote:
SPD is more populist and therefore appeals to less sophisticated and generally poorer voters from the former DDR.
what a disgustingly patronising view you take.
and what of all the SDP voters in the former West Germany?
they are also poor little imbeciles who don't know any better?
what a lot of garbage.
MrBill wrote:
I believe Germans prefer stability to growth. That is too bad. Without growth there is no stability.
oh yes, infinite growth is good, good, good!!!
it leads to happy consumers who will be forever satisfied and graeful for what they are given by those wise people who know better.
it is such a pity the planet is finite and we can't pump oil out any faster to keep up with your marvelous growth. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:17 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
tokyo_to_motueka wrote:
MrBill wrote:
SPD is more populist and therefore appeals to less sophisticated and generally poorer voters from the former DDR.
what a disgustingly patronising view you take.
and what of all the SDP voters in the former West Germany?
they are also poor little imbeciles who don't know any better?
what a lot of garbage.
MrBill wrote:
I believe Germans prefer stability to growth. That is too bad. Without growth there is no stability.
oh yes, infinite growth is good, good, good!!!
it leads to happy consumers who will be forever satisfied and graeful for what they are given by those wise people who know better.
it is such a pity the planet is finite and we can't pump oil out any faster to keep up with your marvelous growth.
Sorry, I wish you would advance some of your own arguments or perhaps propose some solutions yourself rather than relying on clichés and articulate emotion.
Why growth matters. The population is growing therefore you need jobs to support a larger population. Stop population growth and immigration and you need less growth.
Also, Germany has 12.6% unemployment. Schroeder and SPD have been in power for 8-years and they have not been able to reform the present system that they inherited from the Kohl's CDU and all its legacy costs relating to re-unification and expensive promises made to the EU. The goal of SPD cannot be to give Scroeder a job. It has to be in power to reform the system and create more jobs.
If you live in a social system you need economic growth to pay for it. Someone has to pay for pensions and other benefits generously given to the German people.
German industry has to remain competitive. German companies like Deutsche Bank and Siemens are laying off workers to lower their costs and increase their profitability. Those German companies that are building new factories are not building them in Germany. They are building them in eastern Europe or elsewhere. So even if these companies make money for their shareholders, they are not creating jobs for Germans.
I am not patronizing Germans, but I am also not a complete idiot. I care enough about Germany that I would prefer not to see it go into a economic death spiral. If you cut back on social spending and wealth transfers then you need less growth to pay for it. Plain & simple.
I think we are all aware we live on one planet with only limited resources. Do you have any more blinding insights for me? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:20 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
MrBill wrote:
Do you have any more blinding insights for me?
blinding insights?
you mean really good ones like:
MrBill wrote:
Without growth there is no stability.
nah, don't think i can compete with such blind(ing) insights as that.
so i won't even try.
MrBill wrote:
I am not patronizing Germans
MrBill wrote:
less sophisticated and generally poorer voters from the former DDR.
so your big insight in this debate is that east Germans are poor and unsophisticated.
as i said, i can't compete with such blind(ing) insights in that league.
the election outcome is clear:
the CDU+FDP gained fewer votes that the left-of-centre parties.
you can blame it on lack of sophistication and poverty all you like, but that is the result.
if your beloved right-of-centre parties are so smart, how did they blow it?
and the reasons you have advanced so far have been debunked easily by MrBean and Licho. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:54 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Quote:
the election outcome is clear:
the CDU+FDP gained fewer votes that the left-of-centre parties.
you can blame it on lack of sophistication and poverty all you like, but that is the result. if your beloved right-of-centre parties are so smart, how did they blow it?
Well, if this is the case, then why has Mr. Schroeder not been called upon to form the next government with the support of all the left of center parties? Hmm?
How did they blow it? Merckel is not exactly an inspiring politican. Infighting between the CDU/CSU. Populism by the SPD. Germans are not ready for change. It is true, the election was Merckel's to lose and she did. She should go.
I generally do not love any political parties. I am a social liberal, fiscal conservative. I have yet to find a party which reflects my own personal views.
In the meantime, I have already voted and I have left low growth/high tax Germany. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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