How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:15 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Catching up to current...
Aaron, I hope you know that I don't have any personal negs toward you, in fact on many things we generally agree.
However I have a duty to kill off the social darwinist meme wherever it pops up, not just because it's evil, but because it's false. A seductive falsehood that lulls people into opium-dreams of personal superiority.
Like "master race" theories, social darwinism is psuedoscience that plays to peoples' insecurities, by tearing at the fabric of civilized behavior in favor of barbarianism justified ex-post-facto. It also fans the flames of fear at the expense of reason.
That is not good for our species' ability to survive the coming crises.
The only thing that makes social Darwinism seem "realistic" is that it matches certain emotional templates such as fear, insecurity, the desire for superiority, and so on. A person who feels crappy about life is more receptive to theories that suggest life is even crappier.
It is one thing to recognize fear and talk it out. It's another to fan the flames and reinforce it. Engineers and warriors alike, are at their best when detached and rational.
Global statements to the effect that "all humans are..." are generally false.
For any measurable characteristic of humans, reality is a normal-curve, with some individuals high, some low, and most in the middle.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:44 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Quote:
Aaron, I hope you know that I don't have any personal negs toward you, in fact on many things we generally agree.
Same here
Quote:
Global statements to the effect that "all humans are..." are generally false.
Agreed
Quote:
For any measurable characteristic of humans, reality is a normal-curve, with some individuals high, some low, and most in the middle.
Agreed
Man that's quite a bit of agreeing... especially when we are disagreeing...
Still does not address my central message though.
Scarcity promotes poverty.
Poverty promotes conflict.
Quid Pro Quo _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:07 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Here's an example of what I mean...
Quote:
Japan, as a relatively small island, and with no oil industry to speak of, had to look elsewhere for its oil, and this was the reason for the proposed embargo. It was thought that this action would provoke Japan into an incident. Ex-President Herbert Hoover also saw the manipulations leading to war and he warned the United States in August, 1941: "The American people should insistently demand that Congress put a stop to step-by-step projection of the United States into undeclared war... ."
As the leading producer of oil at the time, the US embargo of Japan forced the issue of American involvement in WWII.
Without oil, Japan was forced into a decision.
Time to choose... cut bait or fish?
They chose to fish.
What will the world's nations choose today?
A power-down into poverty?
or
Will they choose to "fish"? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:08 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Aaron wrote:
Without oil, Japan was forced into a decision.
Time to choose... cut bait or fish?
They chose to fish.
What will the world's nations choose today?
A power-down into poverty?
or
Will they choose to "fish"?
Aaron -
I don't see anyone here denying the risk of catastrophic conflict as an outcome of the problematique, of which PO is just one aspect.
The questions are over the utility of aggressively declaring such outcome to be inevitable, as if the future were merely the past repeated.
In reality we have some chances of achieving a relatively orderly powerdown, but these are hugely diminished by the apathy of the population in beleiving that "they" (other people) won't lift a finger to help, and I daren't stand alone. So I'll do nothing ????
I personally don't mind how slim the chances appear to be - but I must object directly to them being denied outright as that actively diminishes them by affirming other peoples' fashionable apathy.
In addition to eroding the morale that is critical to facing the problems, there is a further disbenefit of exaggerating the hazards' intractability.
This is that people are more willing to consider and acknowledge those problems which have at least a visible possibility of resolution. To deny that potential solubility seems to me to be in fact encouraging the party to carry on regardless until the cliff collapses beneath it.
Which clearly ain't your intention . . . .
regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:50 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Let's try this...
If anybody understands the need for a unified effort around the world to confront the challenges of hydrocarbon depletion, it's the folks in here.
So let's see what the educated think about your idea of evolution thru cooperation.
Poll _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:34 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
MacG wrote:
trespam wrote:
My first employer built and ran the original internet (ARPANET)
Wonderful! Lets open a tread "memories from the war"!
Hmmm... Did you actually have an account on ArpaNet? In that case I bow in respect. Otherwise I challenge you for real dates of engagement. I got connected in -87. That was before the browsers. We only had SMTP/POP, FTP, TelNet and the likes. Trumpet WinSock anyone?
First account in '84 when I joined BBN, though it was in the 70s when they built the IMPs that connected up the ARPANET for the first time. A lot of the people I worked with--my supervisors when I started--were involved with it the internet project though. The wonderful "@" sign that we use day-in, day-out is a gift from one of them. See more here [link]
My point--obnoxious as it is--is the same as that of Taleb who I quoted and who has a little article here [link]--there is a lot of noise, and a lot of people with barely any credentials at all posting their pet theories about social darwinism and peak oil and related topics.
Taleb says that when he reads something in the popular press, or even on the internet, he primarily investigates the bringer of the news. Folks here like to play like they are oh so logically minded. They hate the ad hominem. Sounds good. But they are full of crap. In a world of competing opinions--billions of them--the first task of anyone who wants to rise above the crowd is to figure out which opinions can be ignored because they are delivered by idiots. Ad hominem is in fact the starting point of a thinking person's checklist. Otherwise you'll spend your life debating with idiots.
There is noise everwhere. And the internet just makes it worse--in a lot of ways--making people check obsessively all day long to see--hmm, what's the price of oil, what's the latest on peakoil.com, what's the latest on oildrum, any new articles on political intrigue. I'm prone to do it, and must stop myself.
People who spend day in day out bathing in an environment like that can't think straight. As I've said before, I largely ignored peakoil.com for about six months. Actually, I left in disgust after some particular discussion which included moderators or soon-to-be-moderators spouting off on neo-darwinism and similar ugliness, telling me that any discussion of morality is namby pamby naive thinking. But my trip away, and analyzing instead a large number of papers and books on the topic of energy--upwards of 250 papers in my electronic library and probably on the order of 300 books on the topic in my personal library--made me realize that much of the worthwhile here gets buried in noise. So I'll just point that out now and then. There is good stuff as well (the recent depletion analysis is great stuff).
Open forums like this, similar to the yahoo forums, degrade into noise and lose their value at some point. I suspect this is true on almost any topic. They are of value for a while. For someone new to the topic, perhaps--though the noise and clutter can be misleading to those without appropriate backgrounds. But open forums are, long-term, probably inhabited by those with nothing better to do. Which means they don't evolve towards truth. Because the noise of the forums drives those interest in the truth away. Tighter editorial control, tighter winnowing of the information, is the only way to make progress.
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Trespam wrote:
Quote:
My point--obnoxious as it is--is that there is a lot of noise, and a lot of people with barely any credentials at all posting their pet theories about social darwinism and peak oil and related topics.
Hi Trespam,
When I first found this website I was absolutely inspired, as you probably were, by the amount of real information that was being posted here.
Things have changed to a great extent. It takes more work to wade through the shallows to find the gems.
But I wonder if that isn't because the idea of PO is attracting the notice of younger generations. Hard as it is for most young'uns to admit, they are still very naive. There is still much to learn and what they don't own in knowledge and experience they make up with vivid imaginations and outright fantasy. I tend to think the average poster these days whom you call pathetic poor and envious is actually just young.
There are many movements that would sacrifice a lot for young blood.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:42 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Vexed wrote:
Trespam wrote:
Quote:
My point--obnoxious as it is--is that there is a lot of noise, and a lot of people with barely any credentials at all posting their pet theories about social darwinism and peak oil and related topics.
Hi Trespam,
When I first found this website I was absolutely inspired, as you probably were, by the amount of real information that was being posted here.
Things have changed to a great extent. It takes more work to wade through the shallows to find the gems.
But I wonder if that isn't because the idea of PO is attracting the notice of younger generations. Hard as it is for most young'uns to admit, they are still very naive. There is still much to learn and what they don't own in knowledge and experience they make up with vivid imaginations and outright fantasy. I tend to think the average poster these days whom you call pathetic poor and envious is actually just young.
There are many movements that would sacrifice a lot for young blood.
Just a thought...
I agree with you. I'm just acting the jerk. I shouldn't do it. For all those smart people who are just looking at peak oil, please do take into account what Vexed has to say. Peak Oil is real. But use a very wary eye on all the predictions that are made about it. And that includes from many of the misanthropic moderators on this particular site. Some of them are genocidal, thinking we should kill people to solve the peak oil problem. Many of them would be afraid no matter what the source. Peak oil is just convenient for them: they can focus their fears on it. If not peak oil, they'd find another reason to invest in gold, argue that the human race is pathetic, etc.
Reality is: the human race is pretty pathetic. But what isn't. Consider a volcano that blows its top, or an asteroid that decimates most of the earth's species. Isn't that kind of pathetic. Isn't that kind of sad. I think so. Humans are doing what humans are designed to do. Just as other species do. We're making a bit of a mess with the nest, as they say, the nest being mother earth. But what to do?
Here's what to do. Either (a) do nothing and get on with your life or (b) go to college and focus on something that might make a difference: physics, ecological economics, nanotechnology; (c) design a web based ride share network that incorporates wireless phones and other means to make riding sharing or using something like buses more convenient or (d) go work at a kitchen that make meals for homeless families.
Definitely educate yourself on peak oil. But just remember, even the experts haven't a clue. Really they don't. So don't expect that reading the next post at this particular place is going to get you much further. Or looking at the price of oil fifteen bazillion times a day. I've done all that. And now am through with it. I've moved on. It's pointless. Reading too much here is pointless. I take my hats off to the modelers, but even that is somewhat pointless. We'll know when we know. The price will tell us. And then the real action will start. In the mean time, prepare yourself. But I'm not proposing you build a thatched roof hut in the jungle. Always have supplies for emergencies. E.g. water and food. But I'm saying prepare your mind. Educate yourself. The people who think there is no future, and no reason to do anything about the future, are confusing themselves. Our actions should be morally based, unlike our moderators who are often very immoral in their arguments and thinking--throwing morality out through their social darwinistic thinking.
No, operate morally. And I think from a moral basis the right thing to do is to prepare oneself to help society through peak oil. Become an ecological economist, become a social worker, become a nanotechnologist.
Just don't think that your going to find much in the way of truth here. I spent a lot of time here. Sometimes posting bullshit. Maybe this is bullshit right now? But after doing so, as with many things, I find it's time to move on. I'll keep perusing, looking for ways to act the fool. But my primary message is: peak oil is real. Now get on with living.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2564 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 8:20 pm Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Aaron has taken quite a bashing in this thread...and yet, i have not seen him treat ANYBODY with ANY disrespect.
After reading this entire thread it seems that ALOT of people here want to either attack or tune out the worst possibe senario. If you follow things as they are happening now...and follow them to their logical conclusion...you can see, we are utterly Fark!
You can have an entire thanksgiving dinner laid out with all the trimmings & somebody will ruin it because you forgot butter (and they'd rather DIE than live without butter).
Face it folks...it's gonna get real ugly! Mayby not a nuclear war (God i hope not) but it's gonna be dark, cold & ugly.
Deal with it!
Don't tell me to get away from my computer & go do something...don't tell me how it will be for the better...we wont know what to do with all the friggin' bodies!
All i can do is hope is i have prep'd enough to NOT become one of those friggin' bodies!
Joined: Sep 06, 2004 Posts: 5315 Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 8:28 pm Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
RonMN wrote:
Aaron has taken quite a bashing in this thread...and yet, i have not seen him treat ANYBODY with ANY disrespect.
I concur, most peeps mind their manners well, and if there is to be a "solution" that does not involve war, then it's only going to be arrived at by talking. That should include folks like John Bolton etc (or Notlob or Ipswich if you are an MP fan). _________________ "Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Vexed wrote:
Trespam wrote:
Quote:
My point--obnoxious as it is--is that there is a lot of noise, and a lot of people with barely any credentials at all posting their pet theories about social darwinism and peak oil and related topics.
Hi Trespam,
When I first found this website I was absolutely inspired, as you probably were, by the amount of real information that was being posted here.
Things have changed to a great extent. It takes more work to wade through the shallows to find the gems.
But I wonder if that isn't because the idea of PO is attracting the notice of younger generations. Hard as it is for most young'uns to admit, they are still very naive. There is still much to learn and what they don't own in knowledge and experience they make up with vivid imaginations and outright fantasy. I tend to think the average poster these days whom you call pathetic poor and envious is actually just young.
There are many movements that would sacrifice a lot for young blood.
Just a thought...
Interesting thread. I offered free internet email on my bbs via echo net. Not quite as old as you guys, but I still remember 100$ per mb of ram.
Reading this thread brought a couple of ideas to mind.
1) Focusing too much attention on peak oil can be a form of personal denial. People may be using peak oil (or would find some other cause to fight) in order to actively ignore some other issue that is closer to home.
Those that live in glass houses should not throw stones. We can be so critical of 'society', 'government' and 'industry' for the way they have dealt with peak oil, but ...
What about the person that is 250 pounds and on their way to developing diabetes and other health problems? What about the smokers? What about the compulsive speeder? What about ...
These individuals are exhibiting the same behaviour, just on a personal level.
2) The signal to noise ratio:
Good point. I noticed that within about 80 hours of researching peak I had covered the breadth of the topic. Several hours later I realized I had no interest in knowing the full depth of the topic. Rather I needed to know enough to be able to identify the individuals that could speak with some authority on specific topics and listen for news from them.
I was listening to a recent Simmons recording. He said something interesting. Recently a large number of people have joined the debate and as a result they are passing the message further into society.
By coming to a forum like this one they can verbally spar with other people that are peak aware and refine their arguments. This way, when dealing with the uninitiated, they can present arguments that have already been attacked and defended.
Simmons seemed to be supportive of the new people that are becoming peak aware. They are expanding collective understanding of the issues. They are learning the issues and are presenting it to more people. Step by step, person by person the concept of peak oil is rising to the top of our collective consciousness. I would expect it to be a very noisy process.
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:08 pm Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
trespam wrote:
Peak Oil is real. But use a very wary eye on all the predictions that are made about it. And that includes from many of the misanthropic moderators on this particular site. Some of them are genocidal, thinking we should kill people to solve the peak oil problem.
I know of no moderator on this site who advocates what you just wrote. And even if they did, it would not be genocidal in it's premise. Peakoil is just a milestone, a symptom of a much larger problem. We cannot solve the peakoil problem without addressing the Big Picture, which is what caused peakoil.
Trespam, your problem is one of world view and perception:
Montequest wrote:
Ideologically, we need an ecological worldview; a paradigm shift in our thinking about the world about us. Which brings us to a conundrum: it is difficult, if almost impossible (even in scientific discussions) for people of one paradigm to communicate with those who perceive and reason in terms dictated by another different paradigm. We all need to be on the same page and we are not.
We must come to realize that what is happening to us is just a mere sequel to our past achievements. We are not the first, nor the last species to overshoot its environment. In 1798, Thomas Malthus wrote his Essay on the Principle of Populations; while somewhat unduly narrow, his principle still holds today. In modern terms, it states that the cumulative biotic potential of the human species exceeds the carrying capacity of its habitat. Charles Darwin, on the other hand, was a bit more perceptive. His version stated that the cumulative biotic potential of any species exceeds the carrying capacity of its habitat. As a result, we find competition among members of a species for the use of resources that are in short supply. If each species did not overproduce, then predation would always lead to the extinction of the preyed upon, resulting in starvation of the predator and the end of the web of life.
This is reality. Historically, we fight. That will not change. Be wary of those who pose that it will. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 11768 Location: Neither Here Nor There
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:27 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
This is cool! I once posted into a huge thread which was almost just me all the way (Dreams). Here's this huge thread and I didn't even know about it (because it was moved from where I always post in the open forum). Moods change as we all know. Now I would post it as, 'who knows, jesus, let's just wait and see!' As to the admonition on the first page (before my own input to my thread was diluted beyond recognition) to buck up and not be a wimp, well said, but remember, I have more irony than ayoob does by any stretch of the imagination.
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:36 am Post subject: Re: All Kidding Aside, I'm Scared
Oh, yes, I see fighting as the way that TPTB are going to try and resolve the argument. But I also find it self-defeating. It only solves the problem temporarily until the next fight.
WWI was supposed to be the "war to end all wars". Then we had WWII, and right now, I fear we're on the verge of WWIII, which will probably be known also as the Great War for Oil. I may be wrong. I hope I am wrong.
I just don't like my chances, and hope that Australia manages to stay out of the conflict (I personally don't see Australia following the Bush Brigade into Iran due to lack of resources). I wouldn't be surprised if we provide intelligence support (something our forces are extremely good at - we have probably the best SAS in the world). Even if we do follow, it will likely only be a token commitment.
I see a government trying to play to both sides. Australia has a s***load of resources, and would be a useful ally to have.
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Moods change as we all know. Now I would post it as, 'who knows, jesus, let's just wait and see!' As to the admonition on the first page (before my own input to my thread was diluted beyond recognition) to buck up and not be a wimp, well said, but remember, I have more irony than ayoob does by any stretch of the imagination.
