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OilsNotWell
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 1257
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 Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:31 pm Post subject: Skrebowski's MegaProjects Update Says: 'Bumpy Plateau' |
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| Quote: |
Petroleum Review October 2005 Megaprojects Update
The conclusion?
"In 2004, effectively all the world’s spare capacity was used up in meeting unexpectedly rapid demand growth. It is not at all clear if the world’s oil companies can provide an incremental 3mnplus b/d from all the small, untabulated projects and infill drilling going forward year after year. The world has now reached the point where the volumes lost to depletion are much larger than the levels of likely new demand. This means total increments required (new demand plus depletion) are running at around 7%/y, while the largest supply increments in 2006 and 2007 are contributing 3.6% and 3.5%.
"It would seem most unlikely that small projects and infill drilling could account for the remaining required 3.5%. The inescapable conclusion is that oil prices will have to remain high enough to destroy demand, bringing supply and demand back into balance."
http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=652 |
Which means, I believe...productive capacity limits production....the bumpy ceiling...
EDIT: ON second reflection, it may not be the actual nominal peak production (amount), but the beginning of sustained demand destruction which accompanies and should precede peak... |
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Such
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 05, 2004
Posts: 205
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: Skrebowski's MegaProjects Update Says: 'Bumpy Plateau' |
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| everyone put your helmet on... it's time to bang our heads on the ceiling a few times... |
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rogerhb
Master
Joined: Sep 06, 2004
Posts: 5315
Location: Smalltown New Zealand
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| Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:35 pm Post subject: Re: Skrebowski's MegaProjects Update Says: 'Bumpy Plateau' |
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When in trouble,
When in doubt,
Run in circles,
Scream and shout.
_________________
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken |
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OilsNotWell
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 1257
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| Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:55 pm Post subject: Re: Skrebowski's MegaProjects Update Says: 'Bumpy Plateau' |
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| Quote: | Quiet Riot Metal Health Lyrics
Well I'm an axegrinder Piledriver
Mother says that I never never mind her
Got no brains I'm insane
Teacher says that I'm one big pain
I'm like a laser, 6-string razor
I got a mouth like an alligator
I want it louder
More power
I'm gonna rock ya till it strikes the hour
[CHORUS 1:]
Bang your head! Metal Health'll drive you mad
Band your head! Metal Health'll drive you mad
Well I'm remonstrated
Outdated I really want to be over-rated
I'm a finder and I'm a keeper
I'm not a loser and I ain't no weeper
I got the boys to make the noise
Won't ever let up
Hope it annoys you
Join the pack
Fill the crack
Well now you're here
There's no way back
Bang your head! Metal Health'll drive you mad
Bang your head! Metal Health'll drive you mad
Metal Health'll cure your crazy
Metal Health'll cure your mad
Metal Health is what we all need
It's what you have to have
[Solo]
Bang your head
Wake the dead
We're all metal mad
It's all you have
So bang your head
And raise the dead
Oh yeah!
Metal Health
It'll drive you mad
Mad ,Mad
[CHORUS:]
Oh get your straight-jackets on tonight Oh
Bang your head! Metal health'll drive you mad
The bad boys are gonna set you right Rock on Rock on Rock on
Bang your head! Metal health'll drive you mad
Bang your head! |
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some_guy282
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 18, 2004
Posts: 691
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| Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Skrebowski's MegaProjects Update Says: 'Bumpy Plateau' |
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More confirmation of what we've been hearing since the end of last year. By 2007, demand will outstrip supply. If demand keeps growing that is. 
_________________
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte |
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rogerhb
Master
Joined: Sep 06, 2004
Posts: 5315
Location: Smalltown New Zealand
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| Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Skrebowski's MegaProjects Update Says: 'Bumpy Plateau' |
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| some_guy282 wrote: | | More confirmation of what we've been hearing since the end of last year. By 2007, demand will outstrip supply. If demand keeps growing that is. |
Want is what would be nice
Need is what you want to avoid collapse
Demand is what you want AND can afford
Need will outstrip supply
Demand will mimic supply if no supply cushion
_________________
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken |
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