Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:57 pm Post subject: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
Solutions in isolation. What do I mean by this? A classic example is nuclear power development without an answer to the waste problem. Another is increased coal use without considering the cost of carbon sequestration or the impact on global warming without it. Basically, it is offering solutions isolated from the true costs or consequences of implementing those solutions; i.e., failing to look at the Big Picture.
Probably the most cited solution for solving our energy crisis is instilling a conservation ethic into society and the economic engine. Conservation, by its very nature, is a self-induced recession on the economy. Increasing conservation always results in reduced economic activity. Each of the previous three oil shocks in the United States was followed by recession. In every oil shock, the US economy was at or near its “stall speed” when the oil shock occurred. From the cringes of the financial analysts as of late, nothing has changed.
Conservation means economic restraint, and that means fewer jobs which translates into less money in the hands of consumers. This results in poor sales that dominoes into business failures, more job losses and increased poverty that leads to conflict and human desperation.
Some will counter that new jobs can be created in the renewable energy field. Does this translate into a net reduction in energy consumption, or does it just transfer the consumption to another end use? I maintain it is the latter. The only way you can achieve the desired effect is to cut the standard of living. To re-employ those displaced by conservation measures, we must cut all wages so that there is less purchasing power distributed amongst more people. How else can you achieve a net reduction in energy consumption while keeping everyone employed? Somebody, somewhere, has to absorb the loss in consumption.
Can we afford cost-saving energy efficiency?
This is the question posed by the ecological economists Mathias Wackernagel and William Rees. They write (1997):
Quote:
The answer is 'yes' only if efficiency gains are taxed away or otherwise removed from further economic circulation. Preferably they should be captured for reinvestment in natural capital rehabilitation.
Many economists of all persuasions seem to agree that improving energy efficiency through technological means will, by lowering the implicit price, result in increased, not decreased, energy use. Energy efficiency gains can increase energy consumption by two means: by making energy appear effectively cheaper than other inputs; and by increasing economic growth, which increases energy use. This certitude is the result of almost 150 years - since Jevons in the 1860s - of theoretical discussion on resource use, and empirical evidence from historic analysis of energy use in economies.
And, as we all know, efforts to improve efficiency are subject to diminishing returns. Eventually you reach a point where reduced energy availability will translate to reduced economic activity. Given the fact that our economy is based on the assumption that economic activity must grow perpetually, the result is likely to be a recession with no bottom and no end.
Hydrocarbon depletion poses some huge obstacles, and few realistic ways around them. We need to think these so-called solutions through. The perpetual myopic thinking of modern man will no longer suffice. This is a crossroads of a once-in-a-earthtime event; peak oil will only happen once. Its consequences will be here forever. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:03 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
What good does concervation do, if you don't work on population growth? How much has global oil use lessened, while energy efficiency has increased, from let's say the 50's? The B.C.'s?
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:16 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
DefiledEngine wrote:
What good does concervation do, if you don't work on population growth? How much has global oil use lessened, while energy efficiency has increased, from let's say the 50's? The B.C.'s?
Goes without saying. To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further, dividing the pie amongst even more people.
Even if we could get conservation to work for the current population, what about the newcomers?
Where do they get their energy while avoiding a net increase in energy consumption?
I'll tell you...from your current share or standard of living.
Are people starting to grasp why conservation only works in a powerdown and population reduction scenario? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:46 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
MonteQuest wrote:
Are people starting to grasp why conservation only works in a powerdown and population reduction scenario?
Unfortunately most do not and will not, even after confronted by the facts. Realisation that the hyper-growth paradigm that totally dominates the world leads to resource depletion and biosphere destruction is too much for most to bear.
So they deny it, denigrating all purveyors of the idea that we exist in a finite world and must begin to live within our means at a far lower level of energy than present if we are to save the planet for posterity. Instead cosmetic solutions like taking the shopping home in reusable bags or seperating the garbage for recycling are offered up. This may make people feel better about doing something for the environment and the cause of conservation but lifestyles aren't really affected. Few will make the leap voluntarily to a real powerdown - a world with less things because this requires genuine sacrifice and humility.
Only the strongest characters can and will buck the dominant trend of consumerism and attempt to disengage from its grip up till the end. Verily they will be ridiculed, nay persecuted by friend and foe alike for their heresy. Of a disbelief in a tomorrow of more and more things - until the terrible truth of its "lie" is laid out before the world.
Last edited by peripato on Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:25 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:18 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
"To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further, dividing the pie amongst even more people."
We will fight before we do that. _________________ "One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1012 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:14 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
MonteQuest wrote:
Goes without saying. To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further
No, we don't have to lower the standard of living, we have to lower the standard of material consumption. Our standard of living is low now because our standard of material consumption is high.
We have been the recipients of billions of dollars of brainwashing convincing us that by scattering ourselves all over the place and depending on cars to make up for all the unnecessary distances, and by eating colorfully packaged and processed factory foods and indulging in professional sports and high tech electronic diversions we are living "the good life."
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:15 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
NeoPeasant wrote:
Our standard of living is low now because our standard of material consumption is high.
There is some truth to this. Assuming basic necessities are met (alas, going forward a big assumption for all!), more material crap and all the related complexity and dehumanization by and large reduces the quality of life.
As far as educating the other 'peasants' and waking them up, I don't know how it can be done...or what effect it could have anyway in the end. The 1 hour Albert A. Bartlett video lecture is the best single thing I have seen..and entertaining to boot...without going in to actual 'doomsday' scenarios that scare people off. It doesn't cover all the issues that we face and the uncomfortable realities; in 1 hour you can't. But his presentation should be enough for any sane person to start questioning, and ultimately totally debunking, our basic assumptions of the western consumer growth lifestyle as well as the absurd assertions by the cornucopians like Simon, if we only, as he likes to say, 'think about it'. _________________ Refugee from cubicleville:
http://www.morethanabel.net
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
MonteQuest wrote:
Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
Given the fact that our economy is based on the assumption that economic activity must grow perpetually, the result is likely to be a recession with no bottom and no end.
That to me is actually quite a positive scenario, compared to alternative outcomes. It assumes that the system, dysfunctional as it may be, will remain up and limping and at least some of us will have some kind of employment and income indefinitely. Limited capital may remain in growth industries such as bicycles and so forth, preventing a complete disappearance of the stock market.
But it is possible even industries that may make sense as growth sectors in a powerdown/recession (like bike manufacture) may not be viable if they depend on larger industries (in this example, perhaps tire manufacture or specialty metals) that are in collapse. I suppose the viability of 'new' growth industries will depend in part on how well limited capital can be redirected from 'losers' to 'winners' in the context of an increasingly dysfunctional overall system. At some point, if all hope and confidence is lost, it may simply be 'game over', period. Very good outcome for the planet and other species; very bad for most individuals here in civilization. _________________ Refugee from cubicleville:
http://www.morethanabel.net
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
NeoPeasant wrote:
No, we don't have to lower the standard of living, we have to lower the standard of material consumption.
I agree with your overall statement, but, in our current world, lowering the amount we consume will put someone out of work. Much of our consumption, while wanton and unecessary, employs millions.
I believe our standard of living would rise as well in a world of balance. It's getting through the rebalancing that will be the challenge. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sun Oct 30, 2005 10:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:39 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
Its funny monte I havent read anything by ruppert or the other so called doomers. Ive read matt savinars site. not the book. Actually I have only read beyond civilization and dieoff(some of it).
the only so called "leader" of PO ive read is your literature. I need to read your book though when i get the time. But u sum it up perfectly, wish I could be so level headed. . But I see nothing incorrect in this observation. No agendas except to reach sanity. aint nothing wrong with that. Peace on earth and goodwill towards man.
Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:19 pm Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
holmes wrote:
Its funny monte I havent read anything by ruppert or the other so called doomers. Ive read matt savinars site. not the book. Actually I have only read beyond civilization and dieoff(some of it).
the only so called "leader" of PO ive read is your literature. I need to read your book though when i get the time. But u sum it up perfectly, wish I could be so level headed. . But I see nothing incorrect in this observation. No agendas except to reach sanity. aint nothing wrong with that. Peace on earth and goodwill towards man.
holmes,
It's all about confronting our biases. Every time I think I have summed it up perfectly, I go read more of the cornucopian slant. While a Democrat, I listen to Rush Limbaugh. And it's about always considering the Big Picture.
The best analogy I can make is that conservation and capitalism are like oil and water; they do not mix.
The biggest problem that the cornucopians suffer from is only seeing the tip of the iceberg. They see peakoil as something to be solved, rather than seeing it as a symptom of a terminal disease.
They are presumptuous; they think man can improve upon nature.
Second Law tells us we can only make greater chaos of nature, while thinking it is order. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
peripato wrote:
Hey Monte, where do we get your book from?
Send me a pm with your e-mail address. I'll forward a PDF file to you.
Free.
MQ _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2005 1:36 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
MonteQuest wrote:
NeoPeasant wrote:
No, we don't have to lower the standard of living, we have to lower the standard of material consumption.
I agree with your overall statement, but, in our current world, lowering the amount we consume will put someone out of work. Much of our consumption, while wanton and unecessary, employs millions.
That's only true if we only consume material goods. Human services are part of consumption too, and other than the energy requirements of the person executing the service, does not require any material inputs.
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2005 1:58 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
^^^
Company A makes material goods. Company A uses company B to ship its material goods. Company A uses company C for advertising. Company C employs all sorts of people involved in various services dependant on companies like company A shipping out its goods all over the place. High energy costs force company B to increase shipping fees. Company A has to limit its market or it will lose profits or even fold altogether. Company A no longer needs the help of company C and all the people it either directly or indirectly employs. They lose their jobs and can't buy stuff anymore. The economy suffers.
Did that make sense? Seriously, I'm not good w/ this stuff. It's just my take. _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
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. But I see nothing incorrect in this observation. No agendas except to reach sanity. aint nothing wrong with that. Peace on earth and goodwill towards man.
