Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:22 am Post subject: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
Quote:
Nick Butler
Group Vice President for Policy Development
BP
Mr Butler is Group Vice President for Policy Development at BP. He joined BP in 1977 after leaving Cambridge where he graduated with an honours degree in economics. Mr Butler is Chairman of the Centre for European Reform, secretary of the Franco British Colloque and a member of the Board for the EastWest Institute. He is a member of the advisory committee of the Bar Association of England and Wales, Vice President of the Hay on Wye Literary Festival and a member of the advisory board of the Cambridge MIT programme. He is also a member of the supervisory Board of the Illinois Institute of Technology. He has published a number of books and articles on international economic and political issues.
Today the 22 countries of Europe – using for the purposes of this discussion OECD Europe as the definition of the boundaries – will use some 37mmbdoe of energy.
40% of that will be in form of oil; 24% natural gas; 12% nuclear power and 18% coal, with renewables including hydro electric power providing the remaining 6 per cent.
Of the total energy consumed 60% will be supplied from within the 22 countries with the remainder, mostly in the form of oil and gas imported principally from Russia, North and West Africa and the Middle East.
Quote:
...by 2010, on the forecasts of the International Energy Agency Europe will be importing some 10mmbd of oil and 5mmboed of gas. By 2020 the volumes involved are projected to increase to 12mmbd and 7mmboed The result is that by 2020 trade will account for 80 per cent of oil supplies – against 60 per cent today and for three fifths of gas supplies, against 40 per cent now.
There is no shortage of oil to meet such demand. Globally identified reserves of oil can provide over 40 years of consumption at current levels of demand and the reserves of natural gas are sufficient to meet demand for more than 60 years.
In addition to those identified resources there are extensive resources remaining to be found and developed. The US Geological Survey, the most authoritative independent body estimates the volumes involved at 960 bn bbls of oil and almost 5,000 tcf of gas, and even these figures exclude the substantial volumes of heavy oil in areas such as Canada and Venezuela.
so, Mr. Butler, graduate of Cambridge, and paid hundreds of thousands of pounds by BP, for whom he has worked for almost 30 years, believes:
a) demand will remain static over the next 40 years; and
b) these reserves will continue producing at the same level until one day, in 40 years time, they will abruptly fall to zero overnight.
but he contradicts himslef in the next paragraph. or he begs a question: if Europe is going to need to ramp up imports, and other coutries do the same thing but in greater quantities (China, India) how long will these global reserves actually last?
and if, as all evidence suggests (and Mr. Butler full well knows), fields decline over time, when can we expect the declines to start?
the abject silliness of these international big-wig forums goes way beyond the Emperor's New Clothes.
and people wonder why the Internet abounds with "conspiracy theories".
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:13 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
MacG wrote:
-Dont assume it's a conspiracy if mere stupidity is enough to explain something.
i didn't assume any conspiracy.
i simply commented on people wondering why the Internet is rife with them.
in the case of BP, it's obvious there is no conspiracy. just silly assertions about "energy security".
but this kind of silliness is bound to get some people wondering why these huge corporations would want to pass off such obvious lies as facts. what do they have to gain?
and at whose expense?
also, please read what i wrote before telling me not to assume such and such. thanks. _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 1203 Location: Left the cult
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 4:45 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
Butler also quotes the USGS study, which is the most optimistic estimate. Also, BP is supposedly a company big on alternative energy, if this guy is in charge of Policy Development, is the green tinge to BP just empty PR?
One of the institutional problems is that people like Butler didn't get where they are by not believing in oil production. All employees quickly learn that giving bad news doesn't get you promoted, giving good news does. So we really shouldn't expect people like Butler to suddenly forgo 30 years of training and risk his big fat pension by telling his boss "Sorry dude, but your company is f**ked".
Maybe he knows the "truth" and doesn't want to scare people. More likely he is looking forward to a comfortable retirement. Why rock the boat. _________________ It's all downhill from here
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:15 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
tokyo_to_motueka:
Quote:
The abject silliness of these international big-wig forums goes way beyond the Emperor's New Clothes.
Well, my word would have been tragic, but your point is very well taken and thanks. Remember that the number one goal of an economist is to make lots and lots of money, which they can't do if the global market is unstable, which it will be if everyone is peaked out. These calming assurances have the hope of pacifying the masses. Behind closed doors, however, they're probably just as freaked as we.
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:22 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
bobcousins:
Quote:
BP is supposedly a company big on alternative energy...
Don't be fooled by the BP marketeers going after the boomer crowd. They're one of the big three, own Blair, and steered the US/UK into domination of the mideast. Nuf said.
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:28 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
I believe that "Bamberly Oil" in Aldous Huxley's classic 1963 novel, Island, was supposed to be BP. They were evil and sponsored the military invasion of a utopian island paradise to steal the oil. _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 10:15 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
MicroHydro wrote:
I believe that "Bamberly Oil" in Aldous Huxley's classic 1963 novel, Island, was supposed to be BP. They were evil and sponsored the military invasion of a utopian island paradise to steal the oil.
the public statements of various senior BP executives make even Royal Dutch/Shell look like a responsible corporate citizen. which of course is a laughable notion.
MicroHydro: 1,000 posts--nice going! btw, isn't it the middle of the night in Hamilton right now? _________________ Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:13 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
BP's blowing smoke out its tail pipe -- here's a credible refutation for all you UK'ers
Oil Depletion? It's All In The Assumptions -- Part 2, Ronald R. Cooke, 10.12.05,
Article Here
Quote:
CERA's optimistic views are in the minority. John S. Herold, Inc.
Wall Street firm John S. Herold Inc. of Norwalk, CT http://www.herold.com/ has estimated peak production for about two dozen oil companies. Without substantial new investment and additional discoveries, the company believes that French oil company, Total S.A., will reach peak production in 2007. Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A. will hit peak production in 2008. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In Herold's view, each of the world's seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so....
Only BP appears to agree with CERA. There "is no shortage of oil and gas resources for the long term" (From "Making the right choices, The energy year in perspective"). The world has enough proved reserves of oil to last 40 years "at current consumption levels". Higher prices, BP claims, have been caused by a supply-demand imbalance that should be resolved with the addition of new production over the next few years. Incidentally, BP is the only major independent oil company that had more reserves at the end of 2004 than it had at the beginning of that year.
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 7:37 am Post subject: Re: BP Grp VP--Policy Development: 40 yrs of oil left
It's morons like Butler who are making things far more difficult, I realize he's only lying to cover his own ass but it doesn't help matters. _________________ "One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."
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