Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
2. Britain performs rather poorly when it comes to cutting GHG emissions, and worse in the field of renewables, damaging its efforts at becoming the (self-proclaimed) leader in the fight against climate change.
Of these two, the first is obviously the most problematic and scary. The big report predicts a 20% energy gap *within a decade*. Now many of us try to get a grip on the exact relation between economic strength and the availability of energy.
So how do you think this will play out for the UK?
To get to the roots of the issue, there's an interesting second BBC article explaining why Britain will face this gap (it basically has become lazy because of the trillion dollar profits it reaps from its oil, while other European countries who don't produce a single barrel - France and Germany - have been forced to research and invest in alternatives):
And what would be the economic effects on Europe as a whole? Even though other European countries are better prepared for the future when it comes to energy needs, the British economy plays an important role in Europe, and so the UK's energy crunch might have consequences for all of us. Should we act and help the Brits?
The two main problems are the nuclear decommission schedule:
Seven closed by 2010(-31% capacity)
All but three closed by 2014(-70% capacity)
One remaining past 2023(-90% capacity)
Within nine years we lose 70% of the capacity which is currently responsible for 22% of our electricity supply.
And the North Sea natural gas depletion, latest data here:
UK Energy Part 2: 2005 Quarter 2 Update. Coal isn’t looking too clever either, down 20% year or year with low stocks going into the winter. We have a problem both this winter and for the coming decade. _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
But money is being thrown at the airlines by the EU, Scottish parliament and others. To me this smacks of a policy to encourage travel to Europe and greater integration. The Chicago convention in any case precludes tax on aviation fuel.
The other principal reason is rising gas prices has made some of the coal fired power stations much more economical, so they are being fired up more often, compared to the gas ones.
Regarding the energy gap, I suspect Nuclear will fill that and longer term airlines will probably get more involved in carbon trading. Most of them are in pretty bad shape ATM, Easy jet isn't making much money; BA is lurching toward huge problems with pensions.
Thanks for the concern, but shouldn't we be helping the French out, they seem to have a few problems right now? As I'm 60 miles from the French coast, right now this seems of greater concern – well to me anyway.
Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2005 5:40 pm Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
There we are, no sooner did I post he's over at the BBC posting stuff there....Forgive me if that's not you Lorenzo, but it was the Anglosaxon bit that gave it away...
'I feel a bit uneasy at the "Schadenfreude" I find in Anglosaxon media. The way they portray these riots and have blown them out of all proportions, allows me to suspect that they picked on this story to draw away some attention from their own disaster in Iraq.
Joined: Aug 31, 2004 Posts: 275 Location: Austin, TX
Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2005 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
1. If Britain is going to be facing an energy crisis, then it's going to be reducing its economic output, and spending more money on imported energy. So it would be logical to assume the that British pound will lose value against some other currencies. This is an opportunity if you're a currency speculator.
2. England = 30% Keltic Nordic (derived from pre-Roman Iron Age invaders), 20% Anglo-Saxon (post-Roman Germanic invaders, most common in the southeast, especially East Anglia), 15% North-Atlantid and 10% Palaeo-Atlantid (blend of Mesolithic Atlanto-Mediterranean invaders with both earlier and later arrivals; most common in the Midlands and northwest), 8% Hallstatt Nordic (of Viking and Norman derivation), 5% Brünn, 5% Trønder (of Norwegian Viking derivation; most common in the northeast), 3% Borreby and 2% Fälish (both of Viking and Norman derivation; associated with the landed gentry; source of the "John Bull" type), 2% Noric (from Bronze-Age invaders) = 100% Nordish (73% central and 27% periphery types)
*The population estimates do not include recent (post-1957) non-European immigrants.
Get your anthropology straight Lorenzo. Oh and if Africans are so great, why are you living in Belgium?
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 5:21 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
It is so sad that UK, country where I lived for 10 years, and a land that is blessed with great engineers and access to all sorts of renewable and fossil fuels is so paralyzed at the political level that the common britons (many whom I count as good friends) face harsh immediate future due lack of energy.
This is really a man-made crisis, UK leaders are like poker players who throw away a hand with four aces and refuse to play.
So nukes are gonna be closed, and the North Sea is no longer this bottomless treasure trove of energy. What's it gonna be now, UK? More cars, more OPEC oil, more coal? Or just waiting until lights go out, and then shrug shoulders and say "bollocks to it all."? I don't even think that Whitechapel gives a damn. I am getting no noises from there indicating that a consistent, realistic and sustainable energy program is being drawn up and implemented. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 6:00 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
Is it any wonder I suffer from depression-anxiety?!? I get so frustrated about how nothing realistic ever seems to be done to about the energy and transport infrastructure. I think the government must be in denial of the issues; and to actually put plans in to effect would be admission that there is a problem. As long as they can deny/ignore it; it doesn't exist.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2888 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 7:24 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
The easiets way to solve the electricity crisis, both from an economic and a political perpective, is to extend the life of the current nuclear reactors.
The second alternative is to build new reactors and the third is to go for LNG. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:08 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
Starvid wrote:
The easiets way to solve the electricity crisis, both from an economic and a political perpective, is to extend the life of the current nuclear reactors.
The second alternative is to build new reactors and the third is to go for LNG.
That's all well and good except that some of the reactors are physically coming to the end of their lives. Some will need to be decommissioned on safety grounds anyway. We really should be building new reactors _now_, in actual fact it would have made plenty of sense to have started some time ago, this crisis isn't news!
Even ignoring the GHG issues LNG isn't a solution if everybody turns to it. The ability to ramp up production and tanker filling capacity is limited. Why should the UK be treated as a preferred buyer?
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2888 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:20 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
sjn wrote:
That's all well and good except that some of the reactors are physically coming to the end of their lives. Some will need to be decommissioned on safety grounds anyway.
If a PWR or a BWR can live for 60 years, why can't an AGR do the same?
sjn wrote:
We really should be building new reactors _now_, in actual fact it would have made plenty of sense to have started some time ago, this crisis isn't news!
I am all for that
60 new reactors would be cool. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:31 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
sjn wrote:
Starvid wrote:
The easiets way to solve the electricity crisis, both from an economic and a political perpective, is to extend the life of the current nuclear reactors.
The second alternative is to build new reactors and the third is to go for LNG.
That's all well and good except that some of the reactors are physically coming to the end of their lives. Some will need to be decommissioned on safety grounds anyway. We really should be building new reactors _now_, in actual fact it would have made plenty of sense to have started some time ago, this crisis isn't news!
Exactly, the reactors are coming to the end of their lives anyways, so you can only really build new ones. And that takes a lot of time. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.
What I don't understand is that far simpler technologies that are less costly can be introduced on a far more massive scale today: wind and wave. Britain has Europe's best location for these two technologies. They're expensive, but I'm sure taking the risk of doing nothing is far bigger and more damaging to the economy.
Shouldn't Brits and Europeans take this more seriously and organise themselves to protest?
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 11:02 am Post subject: Re: The UK's Energy Gap: very scary
'Shortermism' is a terrible British disease I'm afraid.
The other one is the trendy 'touchy feely' (yes you should care about people but not at any cost to the rest of society) middle class that inhabit integral parts of society that will throw millions at housewives coffee mornings, criminals, make sure no one can move for regulation, train people in the most ridiculous academia, believe that you must have a degree in anything to have a brain, everything in true that is written in certain books and consultants, accountants and lawyers can solve the world’s problems.
Trouble is all the things that can save us from Peak oil, such as Nuclear, are over regulated and vastly expensive because of the reasons above, and actually although Nuclear power (or wind power) is desirable it’s unaffordable to the private sector, especially as the compensation culture this country WILL make sure we go down the pan long before any real progress is made!
The ‘Collapse of complex societies’ most defiantly applies to Britain…and historians in 500 years will study it..
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
