Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

Hegel · Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 5:39 pm Post subject: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

What do you expect to happen in 2006 regarding Peak-Oil-Theory?
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gt1370a · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 347

I expect a decline in the US housing market to set off a chain of events leading to global recession, in which oil demand will drop well below 80 Mb/day, accompanied by a price drop into the 30s or 40s, and concerns about an imminent peak going away. Unless there is a catastrophic supply disruption, such as war with Iran, in which case it will be an oil price spike which sets off a chain of events leading to global recession...

Hegel · Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

I expect the same as you do. Only 2 "roads" are left in this great adventure. Sad, isn't?
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The_Toecutter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 1736

As we get further past the peak, the mainstream might reveal that we passed peak in 2004 or 2005 next year, and the governments seeking to maintain control from the growing unrest will resort to even more fascism. Oil is their source of control, and the government and the corporations running it will not take too kindly to those pushing alternative fuels, either, as that threatens the lofty profits the oil industry will be pulling post peak when the prices really soar...

Of course, I should clarify it doesn't apply exclusively to 2006, but is a process that is already in process and takes time to complete. 2006 is very likely to look much like 2005, only just slightly worse.
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MonteQuest · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:45 am Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

I think a economic crisis is likely, but I expect demand for energy to increase even in the face of a recession.

Why?

Chindia. Lots of inertia there with 9.5% growth. Over 2 billion people engaged in a larger economic and industrial expansion than the Industrial Revolution is a huge hungry maw.
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crapattack · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:24 am Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

I think this is the point at which we will notice the toboggan tilt and start to run downhill. Hope you got some pillows up front 'cause it's gonna be bumpy ride to the bottom.
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bobcousins · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 4:42 am Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

I expect a repeat of what happened in 2005. Some hurricanes, some gas queues, ups and downs. Lots of PO hysteria. No change really.
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Omnitir · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:43 am Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

I also think 06 will be similar to 05. A potential problem though is that 06 could be a complete smooth sailing non-event, in which case many people will have a false sense of security. If 06 is non-eventful, complacency is a real danger. Hopefully there will be some ups and downs to at least keep awareness of the issue growing.

It seems like prices need to constantly rise to get people’s attention. If prices remain stagnant for too long, even at a high price, it just seems like people will relax and forget that it was ever cheap.

But I seriously doubt it’ll all fall apart for another few years at the very least.
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GenghisKen · Coal Joined: Nov 21, 2005 Posts: 12

1) I expect in 06 to see housing continuing to slow .
2) More inflation (food prices and everything else rising in price).
3)Steady rise in oil prices as everyone has to refill their SPR's after helping the USA out after Katrina.
4)Chindia growth continuing(because they have all the productive jobs).
5) Gold will go up large(wish I was a goldbug, or at least had some) as housing continues to slump money has to find an asset the only asset around right now is PM's.
6)March will be horrid for the dollar or perhaps the month after(Iran oil bourse hope isreal doesnt do a strike on em) after all a dollar that is only worth the oil ya can buy with it now. If ya dont need the dollar to do it....(get rid of 24% energy use by only 5% of pop)easy way for rest of world to buy more time before full awfullness.
7) Everyday life will be a little harder..everyday...(Everything will drain yer wallet just that little bit more.)
Cool

MORE news coverage that says EVEN less.
9) Market worries cause greenspan going in a bad time(now).
10) More strikes by people that are reliant on cheaper than now oil prices for their living.
so all in all I see last year, only a bit worse with the exception of a major oil spike around march april. after that its anyones game.

Merry xmas all, enjoy it as the "good ole days"

gt1370a · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 347

trespam · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 11:15 am Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

Weren't people posting predictions for 2005 at the end of 2004? Why not just get those and cut-paste them into this thread? Or better yet, just cross-reference? It would save lots of time. They'd be just as accurate--or inaccurate, as the case may be.

My prediction. Yes, there is a lot of debt. Yes, energy is tightenting. Yes, energy is more expensive. But...drum roll please....

2006 will not be that different than 2005. Housing will finally top. The stock markets may go up or down (they always do). Energy prices will stay pretty damn flat, oscillating around current prices (excepting case of large-scale problems in middle east).

And people will continue to post and repost the same speculative stuff ad-nauseum on peakoil.com. It's good entertainment, mind you, if you've got nothing better to do. And I suppose provides some people with the largely fallacious idea that they are "doing something about peakoil." Particularly if they are a moderator.

Sys1 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Feb 25, 2005 Posts: 653

Back in august, i thought that we would have reached now 80 to 100$.
I was wrong, so i won't do prediction any more.

Oil could reach 100$ in march, or get down to 45$ until winter 2007, i would not be surprised. But... Is oil price a good indicator of peak oil? SPR, market manipulation, so much ways to hide the truth !

Well, anyway, i'm still pretty confident in one thing from what i observed this year : oil and natural gaz prices get higher, food prices too. More and more people are getting deep into debts, many more homelesses in streets, house bubble becoming pretty fat, some politics starting to speak like fascists and population eagger to vote for them...
Peak oil is very real. Like the Titanic, we sink slowly still thinking we are so much invincible that it's useless to care about global warming and the absurd economic paradigm every media hug : GROWTH.

rockdoc123 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 1687

My view is what will happen is completely dependant on perception of demand....not the demand itself but the markets view. In late 2005 the perception was that higher oil prices would destroy demand....this does not appear to have been the case. As well the market has to get out of the mindset that the US consumption controls world markets....it did so unilaterally years ago but China is now a big player....and it appears that oil demand is price inelastic in China.
More oil will come on stream from large projects but we are also going to see declines elsewhere and likely some nasty surprises from oil fields. As a consequence demand or in truth what the market thinks demand is going to be in the next quarter will be what controls oil prices.

Detailed prediction:
WTI to stay in the $57 - $64 range through February....dropping to $50 - $58 range through April or May and then stabilizing in the $55 + range for the rest of the year. Of course I could be full of crap.

donshan · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:52 pm Post subject: Re: Peak-Oil Outlook 2006.

In 2006 I think we will see the the beginnings of a dollar/interest rate caused recession begin in the economy. The second year of a presidential term cycle is a common time for recessions anyway.

In 2006 we enter a period of rising inflation, rising interest rates and increasing housing foreclosures. A small stock market drop will occur. All the usual "tricks" of monetary policy will be applied, but we will never come back to the economic levels of 2005 again.

With a recession the economy will use less oil. If the US goes into recession China and the rest of Asia will slow down too. Thus, we could have a small world surplus of oil next year and dropping prices for oil and gasoline. Dropping demand will obscure the plateau in oil production capacity. This demand destruction will "prove" to the Peak Oil skeptics that there is no problem since they will not be concerned with the details, only the effects- lower oil and gasoline prices.The causes of this recession will only become evident slowly. Peak oil will have problems of credibility in 2006 if the recession happens.

By 2007 more and more evidence will be available that the world economy cannot get going back up again because of true shortages of fuel, even at the recession level economy. Oil prices will start to climb to new record prices as hoarding and stockpiling of oil supplies occurs worldwide. Peak Oil will be recognized as the source of the problem.

Then sometime in 2007 as the election politics for 2008 begins, the light will dawn on the American people of what has happened. A true stock market panic will occur. October 2007!

You can read the history of the next election here, with the approximate electoral vote count percentage- reverse the colors!:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1932

GenghisKen · Coal Joined: Nov 21, 2005 Posts: 12

GenghisKen wrote:
1) I expect in 06 to see housing continuing to slow .
2) More inflation (food prices and everything else rising in price).
3)Steady rise in oil prices as everyone has to refill their SPR's after helping the USA out after Katrina.
4)Chindia growth continuing(because they have all the productive jobs).

Ken, a couple of questions. How can there be inflation when consumers have already had a negative savings rate and maxed out credit since August? If energy/food prices go up, doesn't that leave less disposable income to spend on other stuff, reducing demand and driving the price down? In other words, might high energy prices be deflationary this time?

I cannot and willnot speak for anyone but myself MQ has his own opinions and much better writting skills than I. So I will answer only the questions directed to me and will say "This is only my Opinion"which is worth very little indeed.

gt1370a

First. the chinese economy is an economy they have factory workers they have accountants they have small business they have doctors lawyers and a middle class that is growining very quickly indeed. if your image is of peasants in a feild you are only seeing the PAST in china .http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/20/business/worldbusiness/20cnd-yuan.html
they are producing ..NOT just for the USA they are producing for a full on economy of their own now as well as the rest of the world.

As for why I think it will be Inflationary in the USA . Hmm greenspans replacement is Pro-inflation. inflation lowers debt what does the USA have alot of right now?(you guessed it DEBT) The fed will print more money .more money will find it's way into the system.http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/saxena/2005/1114.html
debt will increase untill the rest of the world pulls the rug out from beneath our feet. again just my opinion.. and I really do wish you all the best.