[Economics] PO Jobs

backstop · Posted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 2:35 am Post subject:

ONiel - My apologies for not breaking down the acronyms. Having done so below, I hope it makes better sense.

It seems v unlikely that 'a farmer' could produce either biodiesel or methanol owing to the scale of feedstock needed to occupy the present scale of processing plants -

I can't speak for biodiesel, but for Methanol Plant about 50 Tonnes of Dry Wood feedstock per day seems the smallest commercially made plant in prospect at the moment, yielding at 55% by weight = 27.5 Tonnes Methanol per day, (9,625 Tonnes Methanol / year) plus surplus heat.

But, a fair number of farms with areas of coppice woodlands could supply feedstock to such a plant between them, preferably with each having a share in its yields. With good temperate Coppices yielding

5.0Tonnes Dry Wood/ hectare /year, (2.0Tonnes Dry Wood /acre /year)

they'd need around 3,500 Hectares (4 square miles) of woodland between them for this scale of plant yielding about 9,625 Ts Methanol per year.

And, there is every prospect of the further minaturization of the processing plant, as wood has a low energy-density and should thus be hauled as short a distance as possible.

In terms of employment, beside staff for the processing plant & feedstock haulage, I'm told that coppice woodland supports more jobs per 1,000 hectares than any other silviculture.

regards,

Backstop

stepka · Posted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 8:27 pm Post subject:

gg3 · Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 4:46 am Post subject:

Charcoal, and/or wood fires, and also the use of a bellows or other form of blower to make the fires burn hotter. All of this will still be possible.

NiKfUrY69 · Posted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:20 am Post subject:

Sololeum · Posted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 5:39 pm Post subject:

Guys you're really starting to think outside the square! Good one!

I don't like the survivalist line of thought and so my contributions are more communitarian.

Plant breeders to take crops like walnut and hazel to greater yields - they should be able to double or more fairly easily if they can be dwarfed.
Steam Engine and locomotive engineers - with new fluidized bed technology steam is more efficient and can use cheaper coal.
Rail engineers as rail already is cheaper to build and maintain then highways and will be even more so when asphalt runs out. Trains also use only 0.333% of the fuel per ton transported than does road haulage.
Vegetable oil growing and refining. Farmers can grow their own mustard / canola - crush it and use SVO (straight vegetable oil) or make biodiesel. It would make sense to have a local bio-diesel plant in town. There is a unit for sale here in Oz that can handle 10 million litres per annum but needs at least 3 million to be economic and it is a unit the size of a shipping container - just needs plugging in to the mains and pour in the oil and methanol / ethanol.
Localized fuel and fibre production. With energy prices increasing fuels there will be a good margin in pellets for pellet stoves/ heaters. Growing the feed stock - there are many trees that give high calorific fuel woods.
Fibres like wool will become relatively cheaper and so become competitive. With wool you will need scourers and fibre mills. Good wholesome opportunities. Get the government to legalise hemp - industrial of course.
Higher transport costs will again make small market gardens around 5 acres profitable - supply the local market.
Timber Portable Lumber mills will be required as wood becomes more economic than the high energy bricks / cement etc.
Housing energy efficient housing - either retro existing homes with insulation and double glazing or building new ones in rural areas as cities become too difficult to live in.
Rainwater harvesting. In Australia we have many manufacturers of rainwater tanks that collect roof water for drinking and gardening. Also your cities have huge paved areas that can be harvested. Treated in wetlands (biofilters) and used again for gardening etc.
Engine cars will be re-powered to diesel engines and there will be a new industry in vehicle restoration as the embodied energy for new cars makes them relatively more expensive. See emergy!!
Basically the list goes on..

Cheers,

meek · Coal Joined: Oct 11, 2004 Posts: 2

I'm in college right now studying fashion design and working on starting my own retail business, but I'm wondering if there's any point to continuing (fun as it is) since obviously, it ain't happening.

I'm no good at any of the jobs anyone mentioned - I stink at farming, am physically weak (not from lack of exercise either) and really not suited for heavy labor. All I'm good at are things like art and music. And I'm pretty, or so I'm told. I can't even become a housewife because I'm bad at cooking and phobic of children. Huh, maybe I'll just get a hysterectomy and prostitute myself after the oil crash.

NiKfUrY69 · Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:54 am Post subject:

julianj · Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:44 pm Post subject: My post peak job

For me the number one job would have to be

Building custom wind turbines by hand (Job Description? I like Turbiner, though Mr. Air-Priest Sir would do if things have got really bad.)

There's a book I just got Wind Power Workshop by Hugh Piggott (he is based in Scotland but does workshops, including some in the US, but quite frankly the book is all you need. When I've been through it thoroughly I'll put up a review)

You build them out of recyclable materials - within the capability of any halfway decent d-i-y er (my shelves only fall down about 30% of the time Rolling Eyes

)

The funniest bit is you take the electrical parts from defunct cars.

This will be make you v. popular post-crash and it avoids the need to be a peasant farm labourer!!!!!!!!!

I bet even Specop wouldn't shoot me if I was yelling "I'm unarmed and I'll build you a wind turbine for food!"

Sololeum · Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:08 pm Post subject:

G'Day Meek,

Retail is a service industry. You serve your clients / customers by sourcing things that they wish to have.

That will never change, you just may have to think outside the square and source your goods from small local suppliers.

In Vi Et Silva

Aaron · Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:50 pm Post subject:

I agree with NiKfUrY69,

Develop an interest in a broad variety of things.

Especially things you don't "get" right away.

If something, like kids for example, seems repulsive and yet many people tell you they enjoy being parents, perhaps it's just a matter of perspective?

And always remember that success is not permanent, and failure is temporary.
_________________
"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.

Praise HawkMan

stepka · Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:13 pm Post subject:

Meek, I'm thinking that fashion design will still be a good career. Of course, the dynamics may change a bit. I agree with Nik--don't sell yourself short. The fact that you're on this site means you a thinking person. People will still need clothes, and if you can sew, you will be an asset to any community, because most people can't sew anymore. Especially if they can't go to the store and buy a pattern. And the one thing I believe above anything about the future is that communities will be much more important and intimate than they are now. If you still think you don't have what it takes, you could pick up some other skills, like knitting for instance. That is fashion related, would be enjoyable before the crash or after, and would be an extremely valuable skill if TSHTF. And most people can't do that anymore. Then you could teach. There are so many options--please don't lose hope. Just like anything else, this could be hell, or it could be not so bad, but it sure won't be boring.

gg3 · Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:58 pm Post subject:

Meek, fashion design will still be relevant. (By the way, my Mom went to Parson's and was in sportswear & knitwear design before she had me; but I turned out to be a geek with no sense of style:-).

Seriously: The arts are one of the areas that distinguishes civilization from barbarianism. People will still need clothing, and even a style-less geek like me recognizes that attractive clothing is better than the kind of dull garb you see people wearing in e.g. communist dictatorships. There will be enormous opportunities to adapt the available materials to the needs of the new era. Many ideas that start from purely functional requirements can give birth to the potential for new aesthetics. Some ideas that come to mind:

The use of layers for control of warmth/coolness. Heating and air conditioning will cost more or just be less available, so people will be living with a wider range of indoor temperatures than at present. This makes for an interesting challenge in clothing design, to develop outfits for work, socializing, etc., that are adaptable in this way.

Also re. layers, an approach that enables people to reduce the amount of laundry they have to do, without appearing dirty or shabby. Inner layers (underwear) will probably remain much the same as today, and get washed after one or two days' wear. Outermost layers might be handled in much the same way as people handle their jackets presently. Ahh, but what of the middle layers? Therein lies some potential for solutions.

Colors! Existing sources of dyes may give way to new ones. Identify what they are and what their potential is. I'm going to guess that some of these will lend themselves to color schemes that are different enough from the present conventions, that they suggest new aesthetic potentials.

New shapes and accessories, including revival of some traditional ones: Think of Australia where the destruction of the ozone layer has caused a significant need for people to protect themselves from the sun. First thing that comes to mind here is the potential for resurgence of hats as common accessories. (Before JFK in the USA, men almost universally wore hats all the time. JFK didn't, and so almost overnight, most of the men stopped wearing hats. OK, now solar UV is up, hats are back "in".) Next thing is, long sleeves and pants-legs in the summertime, which in turn call for materials that are lighter but optically dense. Once you have those materials to work with, the question is how to create lines that are flowing & graceful, rather than merely functional. These kinds of considerations are fertile ground for talented imaginations.

In fact I've heard it suggested that Arabic styles could become relevant in the West because those styles are adapted to deserts where heat and sunlight are a factor. So here is a place where blending of traditions could lead to new synergies.

Durability is going to be a plus. The old phrase "hand-me-downs" will make a comeback and lose its sense of "not as good as new;" it could even become a source of pride, as in "I got this from my (mom/dad/older sibling) and it goes really well with this piece I just bought downtown."

There will also be a kind of perpetual nostalgia for the old days of seemingly limitless energy, so anything "older" will tend to be identified with that, therefore, items that last and last, e.g. "I've had this shirt for ten years," are a good idea. This question in turn brings up the issue of how to combine the freshness of new designs appearing e.g. yearly, with the continuity of durable garments that last a decade or more. Another piece of fertile ground for talented imaginations to work on.

And, in general, the idea of styles that maintain or support an optimistic cultural tone at a time when people may feel that the future is bleak.

For example, work clothes that convey a sense of pride in one's trade. Social styles that say "sexy" in a way that's upbeat and flirtatious rather than vulgar. Formalwear that conveys subtle dignity and tradition, rather than ostentation.

Think of yourself as contributing something subtle and powerful to the emotional tone of work life, social life, and all levels of interpersonal interaction. When people walk down the street, what will they see all around them? Shabby or smart? Dull or uplifting? The threatening look of styles lifted from prison-wear (BTW, I predicted that one about 5 years in advance) or similar contexts that foster a criminal outlook, or something that suggests a more friendly or neighborly attitude? The culture of gangsters and gangstas', or the culture of spirit and soul..?

Even a style-less geek like me can see that's important. In fact, just doing this exercise has me thinking I should be paying more attention to the impression I convey in how I dress. Hmm, if it works for me...

---

Re. kids: not to worry, there's nothing wrong with that. Personally I like kids as such, but their frequent use of sudden, loud, high-pitched vocalization literally hurts my ears (I'm a telecoms engineer, my ears are fine-tuned and too sensitive for my own good), which makes me a bad fit for being a parent. And the thought of getting dragged out of sleep multiple times each night by such sounds makes me think of waking up to fire alarms; the kind of thing that would eventually drive me insane from sleep deprivation. On the other hand, I happen to be gay, and I'm not particularly motivated by reproduction, so the question of babies, for me, is a moot point.

One thing that tends to happen with non-breeders, and this includes non-human mammals all the way down to rats & mice, is that we tend to be available in a kind of "ready reserve" to take care of *others'* kids in the event of emergency. Among mice & rats, if a parental mouse dies, very often a nonbreeding gay mouse will substitute into the role automatically and assure the offspring are taken care of. (And no, the gay mice don't molest the mouselings in their care, that's as pernicious a stereotype as the idea that black men are always looking to rape white women.) Many are the human uncles & aunts who become de-facto primary caregivers if one of their siblings dies and the sibling's kids need someone there for them.

So even if you (as with me) can't deal with a certain amount of the stuff that babies do (yeah that too!:-), chances are you're not averse to dealing with the little critters when they get old enough to sleep the night through and keep themselves clean. But if so, that's OK too, better to be true to your nature than force-fit to something where doing it badly is worse than not doing it at all. So stick to your strengths, which are many.

tmazanec1 · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 424

I work in a Group Home (since 1992). I fiqure people will try to keep their relatives there after they have given up on the luxuries. Am I all wet?

gg3 · Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:11 pm Post subject:

Re. group homes: I don't think you're all wet, but I do think that economic pressures will continue to press the growing trend toward re-consoldation of the extended family under one roof (and the development of "expanded families" of adults living together out of choice as friends, or out of economic necessity.

Kids tend to live with their parents until age 30; this started with GenX and is becoming more-so with Generation Y.

More elders are preferring to remain at home rather than be "put" into nursing homes.

Paying the mortgage is tough for working adults; living on Social "Security" is tough for elders. Putting the two together, is more feasible.

What I see being a major trend, is the move toward "visiting nurses" and similar mobile care-givers. Even a huge increase in motor fuel prices won't stop that trend . Efficiently organized visiting nurse services will aim for high client densities in each area, therefore transport costs (as well as overhead time of travel) per patient served will be kept under control.

So I would suggest that if you want to keep a career in the health services area, the thing to do is get nursing certifications ASAP, and get into a work track that leads to working as a visiting nurse.

I also think there will be a need for another type of related health professional: visiting personal care assistants. The visiting nurses will deal with largely medical considerations, e.g. administering medications, examining patients on routine visits, etc. But someone may have to help with personal patient care such as washing, grooming, and using the toilet, changing surgical dressings, maintaining walkers, wheelchairs, and similar assistive devices, and so on. This is where the visiting personal care assistant comes in. I suspect this could become a huge growth industry over the next 10-20 years.

katkinkate · Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:26 pm Post subject:

Some more suggestions.

organic market gardener (food)
farmer of fibres (hemp, flax, sisal, wool, alpacca, angora)
beekeeper (honey, wax)
spinner / weaver / clothes manufacturer / lace maker / ribbons ...
dye maker
paper-maker, ink-maker, pens/quills manufactuer
brewer or wine-maker, distillier (people will always want alcohol)
potter (makes pottery, plates, cups, bowls, vases, storage containers)
water service (in towns where piped water may fail)
wood worker - carved utensils, furniture ...
tool maker (probably need to be a blacksmith basically to know how to work metals)
breeding and training work animals: horses, dogs, oxen ...
herbalist / naturopath
innkeeper
merchant
veterinarian
blacksmith
fisherman
builder (in wood, rammed earth, straw bales, wattle and daub....)

ideas keep coming but i want to move on so I'll leave it with that Smile