My plans

tmazanec1 · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 424

I have two visions of the early 21st Century.
We have a Great Depression in the developed countries. With food imports cut down or off, the Third World has a famine and dieoff of Black Death proportions. The world gets off its *** and manages to get a mixture of sustainable energy, nanotechnology, conservation and other measures in place. We go through a tough Fourth Turning (see www.fourthtuning.com or read the book by Strauss and Howe) but muddle through.
or
The Crash goes worse than version 1. Society begins to collapse completely instead of partially. The Collapse triggers the use of our nation's WMD, which quickly turns into a global holocaust. In version 2, the dieoff is at Easter Island levels, and is actually WORSE in the Developed World, where most of the WMD are used and the people are more dependant on some sort of infrastructure.
I find "Middle Case" versions implausible, due to our huge stocks of WMD. Which version I believe at one moment depends on how other things have gone...what I have read recently, how "up" or "down" I am, etc. and is usually a coin flip.
My plan for version 1 is to keep my job at the group home I have worked at for twelve years, where I have seniority and which is probably as resistant to a "hyper-recession" as anything (I figure people will try to keep their relative's care up longer than almost anything else) while cultivating my relations with friends and family. My plan for version 2 is to die...I am not of the temperment to make a successful survivalist and would probably be sorry if I DID survive.
Any comments?

tmazanec1 · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 424

Wish I could edit!
http://www.fourthturning.com
Hope this works!

Colorado-Valley · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 16, 2004 Posts: 731

I think the military-industrial elites will ensure they have plenty of oil (maybe they'll base their power in the Persian Gulf, which is now surrounded with U.S. military bases) and let the rest of the world devolve into the Middle Ages.

This way they can continue to live an opulent lifestyle for centuries, and any attempts to organize against them will be met with space weaponry or WMD.

If I were them, this would be my strategy for an oil-depletion scenario.

gnm · Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 2:44 pm Post subject:

Agreed Colorado-Valley, but the problem is a lot of the areas that "they" (developed world elite) would like to let die off are coutries which posess nuclear and biological weapons.. i.e. China. Also major unrest from starvation or serious drops in quality of life could cause enough instability in those states (such as india or russia) that nukes fall into the hands of the fringe and get used against the developed world. So if we are looking at a situation where 3-4 5ths of the world is starving and dying, I don't think the developed world will be able to insulate itself from the chaos...

-G Shocked

kirkwood · Coal Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 4

dont worry WMD would just end the world we will all die together if theya re not used i wouldnt mind receding into the dark ages

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2196 Location: Arkansas

I think you underestimate yourself, and also that your fear of losing the lifestyle you have now is simply that, only a fear - like a natural fear of the dark. Remember, the only thing to fear is fear itself. No one knows what peaking in oil will bring. There's all kinds of possibilities, so, don't let your imagination run away with you and think the worse. However, assuming we are forced into some kind of other lifestyle where we no longer have the things around us that we've grown accustomed to, things won't be so bad. Happiness is a state of mind. A person can laugh in any circumstance. We always hear that money can't buy happiness, and it can't. The things that are most important in life, like love and happiness can't be found on a store shelf, they are something intrinsic within us. Further, some of the greatest things man has ever done, said, or written, were written with a quill pen, with no electricity, no airconditioning, and no central heat. So those things that we think are so important to us, don't make us great as people. Our artificial surroundings have a tendency to make us unappreciative of what makes us great as people, which is our ability to think, love, and be happy, in any time, in any condition. I have spent many days/nights in other than ideal circumstances during my days in the military and even afterwards, on some "survival courses." The thing I have learned is that when you finally shed yourself of all the things around you that you think you need, you finally find out who you really are, and actually feel liberated, its very introspective, and also very fullfilling to shed yourself of all the nonessentials like central heat and air, and leave yourself with nothing but the really important things in life like friendship, love, conversation, etc. It was once said that you don't own things, things own you. Our concept of life is now owned by the things around us, its difficult to imagine life without them, but life will go on, we will still be able to laugh, love, read, talk politics, kids will still play and laugh, and last, be careful about praying for death, that's a given anyway, no need to rush it. I think though, you underestimate your desire to live, I don't think you or most people would give up so easily, that's why your concerned enough to think about peak oil, that's what makes you great, and that can never be taken away from you.

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2196 Location: Arkansas

I think you underestimate yourself, and also that your fear of losing the lifestyle you have now is simply that, only a fear - like a natural fear of the dark. Remember, the only thing to fear is fear itself. No one knows what peaking in oil will bring. There's all kinds of possibilities, so, don't let your imagination run away with you and think the worse. However, assuming we are forced into some kind of other lifestyle where we no longer have the things around us that we've grown accustomed to, things won't be so bad. Happiness is a state of mind. A person can laugh in any circumstance. We always hear that money can't buy happiness, and it can't. The things that are most important in life, like love and happiness can't be found on a store shelf, they are something intrinsic within us. Further, some of the greatest things man has ever done, said, or written, were written with a quill pen, with no electricity, no airconditioning, and no central heat. So those things that we think are so important to us, don't make us great as people. Our artificial surroundings have a tendency to make us unappreciative of what makes us great as people, which is our ability to think, love, and be happy, in any time, in any condition. I have spent many days/nights in other than ideal circumstances during my days in the military and even afterwards, on some "survival courses." The thing I have learned is that when you finally shed yourself of all the things around you that you think you need, you finally find out who you really are, and actually feel liberated, its very introspective, and also very fullfilling to shed yourself of all the nonessentials like central heat and air, and leave yourself with nothing but the really important things in life like friendship, love, conversation, etc. It was once said that you don't own things, things own you. Our concept of life is now owned by the things around us, its difficult to imagine life without them, but life will go on, we will still be able to laugh, love, read, talk politics, kids will still play and laugh, and last, be careful about praying for death, that's a given anyway, no need to rush it. I think though, you underestimate your desire to live, I don't think you or most people would give up so easily, that's why your concerned enough to think about peak oil, that's what makes you great, and that can never be taken away from you.