Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7023 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2005 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Interestingly cougar, I lived for a few years in both SLC and Idaho in the 70s in my late teens, and now close to an Amish community (in SW MO) in my late 40s. I draw from their experience as much as possible even though I don’t subscribe to their religious teachings.
Your tagline ("Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young) is very similar to my Okie forbearers’ sensibilities.
Nice to have you here posting! _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2005 11:50 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Thanks, Pops, for the welcome. I wasn't sure how much back and forth was allowed on that Assessments and Plans thread.
kochevnik stated that his sister is a Mormon and she said only about 30% of members have a year's supply of food. As a Bishop in the church I can say that that sounds about right. As with any organization the individual response to a given teaching will vary widely. Contrary to what some would think Mormonism is all about freedon of the individual to choose the path they will follow. That creates a spectrum from those who are Mormon by birth and have never been to church to those who are recent converts who give thier all to living the teachings of the gospel. I guess I would just have to say that 30% of a population sitting on 1 year of food is a whole lot better that the situation of the population as a whole.
My point about Mormons is more about organization than food storage. This group is very organized and "promotes" from within based largely on how selfless an individual is in service to others. In bad times this system works wonders for the greater good. How many men do you know that you are CERTAIN will help in an emergency? I know a couple of hundred just in my area.
My 40 acres and a mule theory would make SLC metro, Provo/Orem, St. George, Ogden, and Cedar City not good places to be in a worst case scenario. I disagree with kochevnik on the Wasatch front as a whole(BTW, I don't live there). The reservoir system is quite extensive, and has been in place for decades. Reservoirs tend to even out drought shock. I'd much rather irrigate from a canal that will fill every summer, than hope that I get enough rain. Again the example of the depression, dust bowl farmers vs. western farmers. The western farmers did better because they wheren't nearly as dependant on rainfall. So for my best guess, I'm hard pressed to think of a place east of the rockies where I'd like to be in a worst case.
Thanks for the responses, they are all helpful. I headed off to re-learn all I've forgotten about chickens and such. _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Hello Everyone, I'm a newbee to this post, But I've been livin the life for years. First thing you need for survival of your body is some way to clean up water so you can drink it and use it for hygene. There are many ways to accomplish this, take your pick as your pocket can afford. There is lots of info on the web. Don't short personal hygene as a nice to have ! In times like your talking about here it could be the difference between life and death...a slow suffering death at that ! Knowlege of at least basic medical emergency medicine. Remember, a little knowlege can be a dangerous thing ! You can kill someone you think you are helping ! Sure noone wants to do that ! The book Where there is no doctor . is a good start. Herbal medicine and knowing native plants is real handy also ! Again though, Make sure you really know...You can die or get really sick from thinking you knew !!! Learn all about intensive gardening and animal husbandry if you like to eat very much... No Safeway or Wal mart ... It would be good to get rid of these stores in normal times...They are selling Gene modified posioned food to everyone in this country !! Europe won't let them sell that crap there !!! Think about that !
I would also spend some time learning how to manage crisis. How to get along with people under high stress...Figure out whatever it takes to get along and help each other out in those times....Buying a bunch of guns and killing everyone will probably wind up being pretty lonely and sad when you really think about it...I know you have to deal with the worst reality, but try and think outside the box on that subject.. And remember, you still got to live with yourself till you die, be it from natural causes or not. People built what we call civilization from cooperating with each other and making win win situations...It's really amazing we made it this far when you think about it....in spite of all the wars and plagues...We could create paradise in spite of peak oil if we could change our thinking !!!And lastly, Get centered with yourself ! You need to be really clear about what you really need to get together. Big screen TV's will be useless with no power...Your Big $$$ car and fancy house will be millstones around your neck...Do what you can now...Brainstorm with people you know where you live...That is where it happens, not in some bunker you haven't got around to building yet...Most of all, Learn to practice LOVE....Not only is it good for you....it really helps moral on the planet.....God Bless All...We need all the help we can GET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 8:41 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Hey all,
On the topic of peak oil, on which I have read a lot of stuff over several years now, I guess I fall into the category of being a believer "of sorts", that is I believe in it, though can't (won't?) go all out and expect the fall of civilisation as we know it. But for now, that's rather beside the point:
In a lot of these discussions, where plans for the future is discussed and people tell about their preperations (survivalist strategies, moving to the country, self sufficiency etc.) a lot of people emphasize that they have no debt, and aim to stay so. The question goes..why? (and I work in the "evil" world of finance, so should know what I'm talking about...).. If you/we expect oil shortage, the fact is that the subsequent high oil price (easily $150-250 per barrel) will lead to a raving high inflation, as all goods in the world, either through production/raw materials/transportation, will be much more expensive. Now, in such an event, it's actually preferable to carry as much debt as possible (given a few reasonable assumptions). In particular for your mortgage, if you ensure you have a fixed interest rate. This clearly assumes that the world will, in some shape, trundle along, and that the basic economic system will persist (that is, services and goods can be sold and purchased using a recognised official currency). Thus the value of the goods/services you'll be selling (be it chickens, meat, eggs, manual labour, haircuts..whatever) will also increase, and you would soon find that the level of your debt, relative to your income will be so miniscule, that it is essentially free. Now, if the worst (?) of the doomsayers are right, and the entire world as we know it goes under, then why does it matter whether you have debt or not? Surely then all banks in the world would go bankrupt, all the worlds currencies will loose their value, and no one will be interested in collecting your debt payments (or goods used to secure it).
So go nuts...in a way. Debt in the scenario that you're discussing is not a bad thing. However, some caveats:
1) Mortgages, with fixed rate, long term (20 years+) is the best way, assuming you can afford the payments currently, as the world isn't over just yet.
2) If you find that extracting equity from your house is difficult, and you're nervous, then personal loans for longer terms, fixed rate again, is an alternative. For the cash, buy stuff that might be valuable in the future: gold, silver, petrol (stored in tanks), equipment, guns, ammo....If the world continues as before, you can always sell it again (though you might take on a loss)
3) DO NOT USE CREDIT CARDS to borrow now. If you can't afford the payment now or in the medium term, you might find yourself in trouble before the oil ends. Not a good thing this.
4) Remember that if you belive in the end of the world, using the current financial system to your advantage is a preferred thing. However, if it doesn't, any crazy spending now may transplant itself as issues in the future.
Basically my point is: debt is not necessarily a bad thing, depending on the level of your conviction.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 4:48 pm Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
whizkid,
Debt is never a good thing for the average person. Many of those who lost thier homes in the depression lost them because of debt.
You are right that a debt repaid with inflated dollars becomes less expensive to service over time, but if you have no dollars to pay it, you will be in default. There were many banks that went belly up in the depression, but guess what, thay owed paper to someone else, who owed it to someone else, etc. The stories of notes being forgiven are few and far between. If your bank goes rupt it's creditors will own your paper.
You also are overlooking that in a true depression initial infaltion is almost always followed by deflation, because no one has money to pay for anything.
Peak oil or not, you take a big risk by living your life in debt, and probably also assure that you will NEVER retire. Ask those 70 somethings working in wal-mart why they do it. Most of them still have a mortgage. _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:12 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Cougar,
You have a valid point, and I agree with you, assuming (as you do) that the net result of all this is a depression style economy. But a lot of people are expecting a breakdown of human society, global wars and an end to civilisation as we know it. That is not a depression. That is a catastrophe, and in such a situation, the dangers of having debt now is rather smaller.
But, if depression is the end result, you do have a point. Debt can be bad in a depression, if one assumes one will be out of work and can't pay for it. If society persists, having too much debt is not a good thing. But then again, it is possible to borrow money these days without securing it on your house. That kind of debt is less risky, for you, not for the banks. Which is the point. Also, it is true that strong inflation may lead to sharp deflation afterwards, but the scarcity of oil will in itself (assuming no substitutes) be a strong inflationary force. Thus deflation would have to come through lower wages, because of less global demand, which would lead to global unemployment and a global depression. What makes this depression different from anyone else in history is its global reach. The US will suffer as much as Thailand. But given the US dependence on oil, probably end up doing worse.
And retirement? Assumed a right by most people, but probably a privilege in the future, peak oil or no peak oil. No mortgage helps, but is not the only solution - especially as you might find that governments will be unwilling to continue social security payments. And while I agree with you, I don't think all old people who work in WalMart do it because of mortgage (beside the point, but if you bought a house, say, 30 years ago and still have a mortgage today - something has gone wrong) but also because retirment, unless you keep active and have hobbies, is boring. And you slowly rot away, with your mind going first. Maybe some people just want to be active? feel they contribute something, but find that, alas, the only employer willing to hire them is Wal Mart (as they can pay them even less than Mexican immigrants).
Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 7:44 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
whizkid wrote:
You have a valid point, and I agree with you, assuming (as you do) that the net result of all this is a depression style economy. But a lot of people are expecting a breakdown of human society, global wars and an end to civilisation as we know it. That is not a depression. That is a catastrophe, and in such a situation, the dangers of having debt now is rather smaller.
But even if it all ends up in catastrophe, it will start with an economic depression. So it's worth preparing for an economic depression anyway.
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:00 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
I think the question is, when the peak comes along, production slows, then starts reversing...and more importantly the demand keeps going up, what will be the shape of the job situation?
Oil prices will skyrocket. That will have an effect on jobs, don't you think? Who'll be able to get to work and who will be too far away for the expense? What work-places will be able to continue operating? What ones will expand? Reduce? And who will they fire/retain/hire?
Will there be an exodus from the cities to find food/work? Or will we get it wrong again, like expecting people to return to the hills when tele-commuting became possible...with more people actually moving INTO the cities?
Which stocks will rise (BEFORE a collapse, IF there is a collapse...or even if not)? Fossil Fuels? Alternative energy companies? Food/Farming companies? Private owned train companies?
OK, so it isn't THE question, it is a whole lot of questions in one, and probably pretty hard to answer. I guess you couldn't go wrong by learning to grow your own food, but it might be good to think of alternative niches.
A community can only have so many farmers before it needs a doctor, a mechanic, an electrician; a blacksmith? How about a carpenter, how useful would it be to know how to make country homes out of local materials that stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer without using electricity?
Perhaps the best investment to get in debt over is an education. Get those skills, they can't even take the paper from you. Take some automotive classes and help your buddy put together an old car. Later, you could know how to get an engine and electrical system out of a car, make your own solar engine generator, and hook up new houses with minimal electricity for a fair fee!
Take some biology and medical classes, learn how to make asprin, synthesize antibiotics, and brew up simple vaccines...help the professor in the lab to make sure you have the skills, not just the knowledge. Or how about chemistry classes? If you learn to make practical compounds...gunpowder and dynamite, nylon and synthetic plastics, acids and bases...then you could be a real boon to the community.
Like crafts? Learn to blow glass, forge iron, bake pottery or bricks, the list is endless.
A skill is something you keep whether society crashes, a depression ensues, or life just gets a little rough for a while and keeps on going...and in the latter case, it is a lot easier to pay off a $20,000 education on low interest student loans, grants, and (free) scholarships then a $100,000+ morgatage.
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:22 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Davage wrote:
I think the question is, when the peak comes along, production slows, then starts reversing...and more importantly the demand keeps going up, what will be the shape of the job situation?
Oil prices will skyrocket. That will have an effect on jobs, don't you think? Who'll be able to get to work and who will be too far away for the expense? What work-places will be able to continue operating? What ones will expand? Reduce? And who will they fire/retain/hire?
The job situation is likely to get bad. It was bad in the seventies oil crisis, and there's nothing to make one thing that anything has changed. The problem isn't so much getting to work (it's always going to be easier to relocate or save on anything else to be able to commute than to quit your job), but that many companies are dependent on transport for functioning. If transport becomes more and more expensive, a number of companies is going down. Besides, if people are saving on luxuries to be able to pay for transport, any company that provides luxuries is in trouble.
Davage wrote:
Which stocks will rise (BEFORE a collapse, IF there is a collapse...or even if not)? Fossil Fuels? Alternative energy companies? Food/Farming companies? Private owned train companies?
All the above, except I wouldn't trust food and farming companies to go better. Crops could get worse with climate change. And poor people can't pay more for food. In fact, growing your own food could be on the rise.
Davage wrote:
A community can only have so many farmers before it needs a doctor, a mechanic, an electrician; a blacksmith? How about a carpenter, how useful would it be to know how to make country homes out of local materials that stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer without using electricity?
All these things will be useful. On the other hand, chances are that somebody is doing them already in any existing village.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2763 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:17 am Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Romanko - I like your plan. you're cottage in the woods may need a little defending to get around the fact that you're 15 minutes from buffalo but otherwise sounds reasonable.
My only concern is your selling of the stocks when things start to look ugly. I'd already say things are ugly but others would disagree. Trying to spot the top in a market is damn hard and once things start going down it could happen really quick. I'd say move early to be on the safe side and you're good to go.
Besides my gold is still doing better then the GF's rrsp _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:42 pm Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion
Doly, climate change could make food worse, but if it is a factor that makes a sudden appearence as soon as PO (I am doubtful), then it'll propbably just make food more scarce. I'm more worried about costs to fertilize and transport said food. People might suppliment their food with gardens, but how much can you grow in the suburbs? In the inner cities?
As for the skill sets, yes, it is likely other people will have those skills too, but not getting them won't help you any. And if your going to invest money somewhere.... *shrug*
******
Romanko, strider,
The Post Carbon Institute is trying to organize people to relocalize, and leave it up to them to decide how to manage their eco-village, commune, or whathaveyou. I'm not big on such concepts myself (I'd prefer a more normal/traditional village myself), but they have a good point about relocalizing with others.
As you (strider) pointed out, should the doomers turn out to be right, defense could be a problem. But thats not just because of proximity to an urban area. Question is, how long can you stay awake at night? How long can you watch your garden.
A larger community (they suggest 10-100 families) will have more watchstanders. Ask anyone in the military, that makes good sense. A larger community will also have a larger skillset, more specalists. Thats quality of life right there. Something to think about.
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