Are we going to experience a "late" winter?

hundreddollaroil · Coal Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 9

hi fellow PO followers!

recent decline in Nymex oil prices (before rising above $63 abt 3 wks ago) was mostly blamed on an unusual warm Jan winter...

however, as i remembered clearly abt 1-2 yrs ago, the same situation happened in most parts of Europe and the States where there was a very late cold snap which send prices soaring again.

Since I live in the tropical island of Singapore.... and thus have no idea abt winter...does any weather experts over at the other side of the globe have any idea whether it could happen again this yr?

since current prices are in the mid 63s and Nat Gas futures have fallen nearly 40% to just under $9 ... any cold snap could cause crude prices to test 68 and beyond and Nat Gas prices to shoot back up to $10 again...

all yr expert forecasts and opinions will be most welcome!!!

bob_loblaw

This winter is certainly not what we normally experience in this part of Canada.

The two week forecast has the average temperature above freezing. We normally experience the coldest temps of the year, at exactly this time. That being, somewhere around -20C at night, and just below 0 during the day.

No guesses about whether the cold will finally come or not from me, but it has been a very unusal winter, with a higher than normal number of 'cloudy' days. Many folks I've mentioned it to, have also noticed the lack of sunlight.

As a child in the mid '70's, my dad would build an ice rink in the backyard every year. No way you could do that the last few years.
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shakespear1 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 1573

Here in Poland it has been a yo-yo. Christmas was had snow and then rain. New Year was cold and had plenty of snow. Now it is cold but again a up and down affair. Not a constant winter weather.
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Armageddon

im in st.louis, right smack in the middle of the US, and i cant believe the mild winter we are having so far. very crazy. it was actually 70 degrees the other day. my gas bill was still 290.00 recently. i would hate to see what it would have been if it was a cold winter ( 400.00 + for sure )

GrizzAdams

Very mild indeed, the river here hasn't frozen well enough for even a squirrel to run across it.

DigitalCubano · permanently banned Joined: Aug 19, 2005 Posts: 439

The weather has been mild here in metro Boston. I was walking around in a t-shirt yesterday (high in the mid 50's), washed the car and entertained the notion of taking the motorcycle out for a spin. It's disturbing and disappointing (1 meaningful snow fall so far this "Winter"). It looks like tomorrow we will finally get a shot of cold air.

It's been my experience that the coldest temps around here always occur in mid to late January. It may be that we get cold fronts every week from February onward, but it won't be the bone-chilling, bitter cold that we get in a typical January.

RonMN

I wouldn't even try to make a prediction...30-40 degrees F in Minnesota in mid-january is unheard of.
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duke3522

Here in central Indiana we have had a very different winter. In early December we had a big snow and a cold snap. We got a full blown winter electric bill for that month.

Then by Dec. 25th most of the snow had melted, but we did get a dusting of snow xmas day.

The on Dec 28th we had temps in the 50’s, heavy thunder storms, which are unusual in Dec. but not unheard of. But then we get pea size hail. I have never seen hail in Dec. before.

Of course this week we had temps in the 50’s and 60’s with a bunch of rain and more hail just to the south of us.

If the ten day forecast holds true, we can expect above norm temps as far as the super computers can see.

I don’t know if it has anything to do with global warming, but we have moved from USDA Ag Zone 5 to Zone 6 over the last 25 years. So something is warming up.

Duke of Indiana

PhebaAndThePilgrim

Pheba From the Farm: A big hello to all PO folks. I have been absent lately. I have been involved in other things for a while. Just had to post on this one. Mid-Missouri, and last weekend we had flies and dandelions were trying to bloom. Today is beautiful and in mid 50's. Snow comes, but melts quickly, and we have not had any bitterly cold weather to speak of. Weird.
Pheba

SinisterBlueCat · Intermediate Crude Joined: Sep 06, 2005 Posts: 950

I am in south central wisconsin, and we actually hit 50F last week! It is also dry as a bone here. It is just weird and a bit frightening.

Cyrus · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 25, 2005 Posts: 629

Here in the Chicago area....

It was over 60 degrees....

Then I see tons of those jetstreams (supposedly from something called TAP?), and BAM! 30 degrees and snow!

Now, back up to around 45.

FoxV

Its typical around here (Eastern Ontario) to have a January thaw. These usually occur at the beginning of January and only last a few days (ice storm of '98 was during this time). This thaw though is later and longer than usual.

Once the thaw is finished, it is also typical to get a HUGE cold snap (remember with the ice storm, things became dangerous in Montreal when a week after the rain, the temperature dropped to -20C and power was still down).

Last year the cold snap was really bad. -25C to -35C and it lasted for two weeks straight. Watching Nymex gas is going to be real fun when that kicks in this year (I'm on fixed contract Smile

)

btw Bob, I knew a Jonathan Loblaw in highschool (Cornwall), any relation
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TITAN

Here in southern Idaho we had one of the coldest Novembers ever. Then we had our wettest December ever; with a THUNDERSTORM during the MPC bowl game between Boise St. and Boston College on Dec 28th...We don't get thunderstorms this time of year and it was 59 degrees that day. Now in January we are still experiencing high amounts of RAINFALL instead of small amounts of snowfall and temps about 10°F higher than normal. We get all the storms that Portland Oregon and Seattle Washington get, so we a pretty much soaked...

Can't wait til hurricane season...If it's abnormal everywhere else, you know the hurricane season is going to be awesome...
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turmoil

It has been unusually mild here in Richmond VA as well. We had a T-storm last night too.

I'm not complaining...yet.
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bartholland · Heavy Crude Joined: Nov 12, 2005 Posts: 103

Here in Western Europe we haven't seen any severe winter weather.

Seems like the prediction of an unusual strong winter because of changed transatlantic ocean currents are not coming through.

Not this winter anyway.