Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3647 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:38 pm Post subject: Interesting Iran decline data
According to NEWS ARTICLE on the last of the page we have
Quote:
Iraq exported 508 million barrels, or 1.41 million barrels a day in 2005. That was a 4.7 percent drop from 2004, when it exported 533 million barrels, or 1.48 million barrels a day.
which is actually quite a statement if you think about it. Oil exports are bringing in more cash than ever before so Iran is motivated to sell as much as they possibly can, and yet between growing domestic demand and declining fields they were able to sell less in 2005 than in 2004.
If they continue to decline at 4.7% per year how long until they are net importers? Not as long as most people think! By my understanding of the rule of 70 Iran will export no more than half as much as it does now in 2020, and if the population growth is faster than we think that number is subject to downward revision. Also I find it interesting that this news item gives Iran exports at 1.41 when I commonly see the figure 2.5 used in other news items. How long ago was it that Iran exported 2.5 mbd and why havn't the news agencies updated their data to reflect the decline in exports? _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Iran decline data
Yet another big exporter in decline. It really is starting to look like the Bushies have assembled some hard data on what is really up with global reserves and have come to the conclusion that we're in deep crap. Hence the "oil addiction" bit in the State of The Union address. They can't keep quiet about it any more.
We're on the "undulating plateau" right now, folks. If global production manages to makes its way any higher than the current 84,000,000 barrels a day, I'll be very, very surprised. I'm convinced that the beginning of the global decline is just around the corner...
They are about a year farther along the curve than we predicted last year with our data being what it was.
At the time, we estimated Iran to be a net importer of oil by 2011, but this suggests this might come faster. No wonder they think they need the nukes.
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 8:18 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Iran decline data
Pup -
Good to see Iran's nuclear power aims given practical perspective.
From their POV, if they are heading into dependence on nuclear energy, why would they dream of accepting dependence for enriched uranium on some external power ?
Personally I greatly doubt nuclear is the answer to their energy needs, but that doesn't appear to lessen the integrity of their case.
regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Iran decline data
Lady Ruby -
while Iran may at or be near plateau, I'd put a question mark by Iraq, since neither national nor foreign armies prevented an 8% production decline last year.
No telling what the reality is, but Saddam's ex oil-minister in a recent half hour BBC interview spent some time complaining about the regime having been 'forcing' the reserves, how he'd warned of the damage this could do to them, and how maximizing immediate output had been given priority.
It's thus possible that Iraq has peaked -
Which would have been world news, and seriously for markets' confidence, had there been no invasion . . . .
regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Last edited by backstop on Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Iran decline data
LadyRuby wrote:
I thought these were the only countries that haven't either reached a plateau or peaked. Is that right?
Brazil
Ecuador
Russia/FSU
Algeria
Libya
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Angola
Does this list sound about right? Cross Iran off the list then?
Considering that the Kuwaitis have officially announced that Burgan has peaked, and how they're struggling to get Project Kuwait under way, don't we also have to erase Kuwait from that list?
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1797 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:41 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Iran decline data
Well, technically some of these countries peaked in the 70s or early 80s, right? We're kind of talking about secondary or even tertiary peaks for them at this point. They don't exactly fit into a smooth bell curve. Up and down and up and down and...
... especially Iraq. Talk about an 'undulating plateau.' Keeps building and crashing depending on what war's being fought in that neck of the woods. Theoretically, the country could stabilize yet again and national oil production shoot off to yet another peak. Looking at this graph, it seems that it'll be kind of difficult to make any predictions or even talk about a single 'peak' for any one of these countries. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Iran decline data
Quote:
kind of difficult to make any predictions or even talk about a single 'peak'
not to digress away from the topic of Iran, but this is the very point that our fellow forum dweller reservegrowthrulz, among others, has contended, that the normal "hubbert analysis" is inappropriate for nations like iraq and saudi, and probably iran too, for that matter, who have made production decisions based on politics rather than engineering.
Be that as it may, the global peak will probably be driven a lot less by Iraq and Iran and a lot more by Saudi, Russia and the FSU "Chaostan" states.
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