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Peakoil.com :: View topic - The Euro vs the Petro Dollar
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The Euro vs the Petro Dollar
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stayathomedad
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:13 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I wrote:

Quote:
b) the cost of offspring: unless you make them work in the mines or fields, you have to pay for them. if you do not put them to work and you cannot pay for them, you make them a public burden


what i wanted to write was:

b) the cost of offspring: unless you make them work in the mines or fields, you have to pay for them. if you do not put them to work and/or you cannot pay for them, you make them a public burden
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:56 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Dollar plummets to eight month low against euro
"We now project the euro at 1.27 dollars in one month and at the all-time highs of 1.29 in three months," said Daniel Katzive at UBS.


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1519&ncid=749&e=6&u=/afp/20041020/bs_afp/forex_us
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jpatti
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:37 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Markos101 wrote:
What you haven't covered so far is how governments service their debt. This includes the UK.


To put this into more human terms...

It's as if I were to take out a credit card to pay off my old credit card... and keep doing that indefinetly without actually ever making any payments. My debt just goes up and up and up. Sooner or later, when I go to apply for a new credit card, the bank is going to say no.

During the most recent sale of Treasury bonds by the US, the rest of the world, which has been our bank, said no.

I have no idea what this means exactly, or how fast the repurcussions will effect us, but it scares me very, very badly.
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:37 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

MrBean, Keith_McClary, here is a rather compelling article about why a "basket" of currencies won't fly.


Money, Money, Money
by Stan Goff

Quote:
This is the second installment of Stan Goff's report on the simmering Persian Peril. Where Part One set out a history of modern Iran in its relations with Western imperial powers, the current piece explains the petrodollar system that underlies our ugly situation in the Middle East and the world. As Catherine Austin Fitts says, nothing will really change until we change the way money works. "Petrodollar," "fiat currency," "speculative attack," "balance of trade" --- these are the lexicographical little friends whom we need by our sides if we are to make it out of the propaganda labyrinth. Goff's essay explains just why the world puts up with the American bully. It isn't just the horrible weapons of death; it's the horrible weapon of debt: in this ongoing American dream, "we" do the borrowing - and everyone else does the owing.


http://www.energybulletin.net/2754.html
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Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Permanently_Baffled
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:25 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Going back to the original topic, one of the theories to why the US went into Iraq was that they wanted to maintain oil purchases in dollars. This I can fully understand, no problem , but what exactly did the UK get out of being involved in the iraq war? After all Tony Blair is keen as mustard to be part of the Euro....

One other off topic question I have is , Matt Savinar and others have pointed out that Bush and Cheney live in 'off grid' homes because of the ( I assume) prospect of power supply problems and maybe the prospect of PO. So why has Tony Blair just bought a $5 million mansion in central london which, in theory, would be the last place you would want to live during a energy crisis/PO? HIs mortgage is even over 25 years, that means he doesnt expect any problems until 2029(the houseing market will be toast by then!)? What the hell is going on?

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Grimnir
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 3:23 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
One other off topic question I have is , Matt Savinar and others have pointed out that Bush and Cheney live in 'off grid' homes because of the ( I assume) prospect of power supply problems and maybe the prospect of PO. So why has Tony Blair just bought a $5 million mansion in central london which, in theory, would be the last place you would want to live during a energy crisis/PO? HIs mortgage is even over 25 years, that means he doesnt expect any problems until 2029(the houseing market will be toast by then!)? What the hell is going on?


Bush's ranch is not off the grid. See:
http://www.grist.org/advice/ask/2003/10/15/umbra-ranch/
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rowante
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:05 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Monte,

are you aware of the e-Dinar? It's a new gold backed currency being traded by Muslim banks. There is a massive movement in Islamic countries to invest in new Islamic banks that obey Sharia law. One major aspect of these laws is the prohibition of interest. I wonder if a more sustainable worldwide banking system can evolve out of this philosophy?

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/0301.html
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:35 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

rowante wrote:
Monte,

are you aware of the e-Dinar? It's a new gold backed currency being traded by Muslim banks. There is a massive movement in Islamic countries to invest in new Islamic banks that obey Sharia law. One major aspect of these laws is the prohibition of interest. I wonder if a more sustainable worldwide banking system can evolve out of this philosophy?

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/0301.html


Vaguely aware, but I believe it could be quite a player very soon. There is no manual to follow these days, nothing is as it used to be in the currency markets. I anticipate a big change in the financial markets post election. I have put in my stop loss orders already. Could be quite the mass exodus. The housing bubble may burst as well.

Any currency post-peak needs to be non debt-based or at least backed 100% by gold or silver, and perhaps credit backed 100% rather than the fractional reserve we have now. I don't see money being made by investment in a growth oriented system in the future. The way you will invest in a factory is by literally helping to build it.
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2004 8:20 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here's more evidence to support my position that there will be a move to the euro for oil sales:


Chancellor Schröder peddles petroeuros

Schröder and several other EU politicians are also working behind the scenes to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to denominate Russian crude oil and natural gas in euros.
http://www.faz.com/IN/INtemplates/eFAZ/archive.asp?doc={9E9B4FD8-E9BE-4D90-96C1-63BAD4212F62}&width=787&height=573&agt=explorer&ver=4&svr=4
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:42 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here's another stark indicator of the emerging euro. The euro's recent rise to the dollar has many worried, in that the fundamentals do not exist for such a level and could hurt exports.

Bank of Japan governor says world needs rival to US dollar as global currency

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui said it would have a stablizing effect on the global financial system if a clear rival to the US dollar as a key global currency were to emerge

Speaking at a symposium in Tokyo on the theme "The Euro: Five Years On -- Implication for Asia", the Japan central bank chief cited data showing the common currency of the 12-nation European currency bloc is emerging as a serious rival to the dollar as a key currency for conducting global trade and investment
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1100254316-9e32d306-16911
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trespam
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:04 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I read the bank of governor post this morning. What he says makes good sense. One world currency leads to the imbalances that we are seeing right now--we have the opportunity to abuse it and the world cannot do much. We need currency competition. Interesting that the US promotes competition and free markets and then will get stabbed in the ass by them.

But the whole world has to move incrementally in this direction. The odds of a mistep are not small--somehow the Asian and European communities have to create their own internal, regional markets, so they can rely less on the US market for their growth.

If you think about it, this is the first step towards regionalization, which is the direction the world must head as energy supplies tighten.

But it's also interesting that Bakhtiari, if I'm not mistaken, recently said that he belived the euro would have problems once oil supplies tightened further and that he even thought it might break down as each european country tries to control its own monetary destiny once again. Though I personally don't see that happening.
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backstop
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:17 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Trespam -

You wrote :

"this is the first step towards regionalization, which is the direction the world must head as energy supplies tighten. "

Could you explain why its 'must' head . . . ?

Could head, I'd agree, but then it could also continue to head to finding common global agreement to develop solutions to the common global problems we face.

I give you that this may seem unlikely from within the US info-scape, but then the US is lagging in the relevant negotiations; many states, including India and China, are well up on the necessary conceptual dynamics.

regards,

Backstop
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khebab
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 8:56 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I see a lot of people freaking out about the euro being used for purchasing oil instead of the US dollar. Some people see it as an ecomical warfare against the US. But is it the result of some economical mechanism, natural competition between currencies or political decisions by some countries in order to hurt the US economy?
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Fatherof4
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:00 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Thank God for this thread... I just read through it all from the beginning. This whole topic was completely opaque to me, but now is making some sense. I just ask all the experts to continue to use dumbed-down real world analogies to help us novices understand. Also... I would like to know what indicators you are watching and what we should expect if all of this is true! Thank you!!
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:25 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Fatherof4 wrote:
Thank God for this thread... I just read through it all from the beginning. This whole topic was completely opaque to me, but now is making some sense. I just ask all the experts to continue to use dumbed-down real world analogies to help us novices understand. Also... I would like to know what indicators you are watching and what we should expect if all of this is true! Thank you!!


Well, it's like this: If you know the stock market is going down, you get out and go into bonds, right? Move to the sidelines. If you are the world and you have 80% of your savings tied up in a financially sinking ship (US dollar), where do you put it that is safe? Look at how high gold is now. 16 year high, heading for $450/ounce. Oil goes up, gold goes up, dollar goes down. Look at the euro, almost 130. Doesn't deserve that rise, the economic fundamentals aren't there, but to many it seems safer than the much printed dollar, especially because of our twin deficits.

What do I watch? Price of gold, euro vs dollar, CAD (trade deficit) bond market, especially euro bonds, but mostly economic news of intent from foreign countries like I post regularly. What should we expect? Economic chaos.
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