The EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2006 indicates that it expects U.S. domestic crude production to deplete at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent between 2004 and 2030 (table on page 11 for example).
This seems extremely optimistic, given that U.S. crude production peaked in about 1970, along with the steep declines we're seeing in some other areas. My calculations show that since about 1970 average annual crude production has declined by more than twice that rate, about 1.6%
Joined: Dec 20, 2004 Posts: 890 Location: Scotland
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 4:46 am Post subject: Re: EIA: U.S. Domestic Crude Production Depletion Rate: 0.
america is a very interesting oil province. it certainly appears to confirm that with enough drilling and technology, you can really improve extraction rates and stave off depletion to a large extent also, though you cant stop it of course.
i think that, if the rest of the world was as extensively drilled as america, then peak oil wouldnt be a problem until the middle of this century. unfortunately, the rest of the world isnt as extensively drilled and wont be in the future either, so it doesnt really matter if there is actually enough reserves out there - if it isnt drilled/discovered and brought to market, it has no effect on peak oil.
i think this is something that people such as michael lynch are especially deluded on. they assume that the necessary drilling etc. shall take place. whereas i think it wont.
Joined: Nov 18, 2004 Posts: 1059 Location: Central Texas
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 5:35 am Post subject: Re: EIA: U.S. Domestic Crude Production Depletion Rate: 0.
Interesting. Just by looking at the US Crude production rate numbers given at EIA Crude Oil Section , oil production ending Feb. 4, 2005 was 5.433 mbpd and this year it was 4.903 mbpd.
So that's (4.903-5.433)/5.433 * 100 = -9.7% yoy.
Where is all that extra oil production going to come from?
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:15 am Post subject: Re: EIA: U.S. Domestic Crude Production Depletion Rate: 0.
Quote:
the higher world oil prices in the AEO2006 reference
case lead to more domestic crude oil production, lower
demand for petroleum products, and consequently
lower levels of petroleum imports.
Quote:
U.S. crude oil production
in the AEO2006 reference case is projected to
increase from 5.4 million barrels per day in 2004 to a
peak of 5.9 million barrels per day in 2014 as a result
of increased production offshore, predominantly from
the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Production is
then projected to fall to 4.6 million barrels per day in
2030.
This is pretty much the standard Michael Lynch theory. Prices will be high enough to make it economical to go into deepwater gulf of mexico and make domestic production relatively flat through 2030.
Their new projection is that we will need 111 mbd global production by 2025. This is a lot lower than previous estimates. So, maybe China will miraculously stop growing. Obviously the gap between relatively flat supply and increased demand will have to be taken up by OPEC, who is assumed to be able to come up with the extra production no problem.
They assume that US energy use per dollar of GDP will decline 60% by 2030 as people become more efficient. Most of this will be in some other area besides transportation, which is expected to use more and more fuel every year.
Quote:
the average world crude oil price continues
to rise through 2006 and then declines to $46.90
per barrel in 2014 (2004 dollars) as new supplies enter
the market
This is pretty weak logic. The increase from 35 to 70 in the last year was apparently not enough to cause substantial conservation. It remains to be seen whether the long term price of $46 would be enough to cause the above suggested investments in offshore drilling and 60% decline in energy per gdp.
This little report is about the "reference case" which is the base scenario for estimates. It should be interesting to see some of the other, less optimistic cases.
I hope they include their spreadsheet. We would be able to make some assumptions of our own.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 10:50 pm Post subject: Re: EIA: U.S. Domestic Crude Production Depletion Rate: 0.
The other thing is that the EIA assumes a 2.3 percent annual increase in other domestic oil production, which from the text looks mostly like deepwater gulf of mexico.
But the EIA's data suggests that the GOM peaked in 2002 or 2003.
If you use the same domestic depletion rate we've had since 1970, and for the GOM give them the benefit of the doubt and say that other crude production (GOM) will stay the same between now and 2030, then it looks like rather than importing 62% of petroleum by 2030, we'll be importing 77%. If GOM actually decreases at a similar rate to our other domestic oil, then we'd be importing about 81% by 2030.
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