My thoughts on the important criteria for post-PO survival..

cudabachi

Though not necessarily presented in order of importance, to an extent, I guess the following criteria do match my thoughts on the things that will likely help a population make a less tumultous transition from cheap oil to a truly precious commodity.

And while we talk about post-PO, I'm mainly concentrating on that transition period as opposed to that point on the bell curve where we're back to production levels that match the early 20th century.

1) Favorable ratio of hydrocarbon production to population
2) Availability of arable land
3) Ample supplies of fresh water
4) Low population density
5) Temperate climate
6) Proper political climate
7) Educated population

I've read with interest the thoughts of many here who believe that the Mid East oil producing countries will fare pretty well in a post-PO environment. And yes, of course, they'll be holding the cards and collecting the ever-increasing dollars for an ever-decreasing supple of crude oil. But, in the long haul, can they really buy their way out of situation? Perhaps so, but they certainly don't have ample supplies of fresh water, arable land, or a temperate climate in which to live. On top of that, do they know how to produce much other than oil? From what I recall, almost all the labor in countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is imported and provided by the likes of Palestinians, Philipinos, etc.

I also question how well populations in the far north climates can survive long, dark winters. Are there really enough nearby forests to provide the firewood needed to heat homes in the cities? And what happens when the most accessible forests are completely harvested? How does one transport firewood from distant points during the dead of winter?

On a recent trip to Southern Canada, a friend pointed out an area near his home that had burned about 20 years ago. Interestingly, he commented that the evergreens had "quickly" taken hold after the fire. But what I saw were trees that were only about 8 feet tall! If that's the typical growth rate of northern forests, then it does indeed take a long while to re-forest an area.

Anyway, these are just some of my thoughts on the subject. I'd appreciate some input from you fellows who have a lot more experience and time thinking about the subject.

gnm

FireJack · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 16, 2005 Posts: 457

There are so many possible scenerios that probably the best way to ensure survivle is to make a place that you could hide out in for a couple of years without needing to look for food etc. It seems more and more that natural resource depletion will be the big killer, not peak oil. People are going to move in large waves to where they hear the living is good and then rape everything that is good about it. This is how western society has been taught to live.

Ideally I guess would be to find a place that people are not likely to go to looking for food, wood, resources, etc.

cudabachi