US Dept of Energy Report: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION

donshan

I first had a hard time finding this report. So due to the bump-up here is an active link with the Executive Summary and a link to download the 91 page report as a .pdf

http://www.energybulletin.net/4638.html

There are a lot of oversimplifications (acknowledged by the authors), but even assuming overnight political decision making we are in trouble. And when did we ever get overnight political decision making?

Especially since the majority don't admit there is even any oil supply problem.
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Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3026 Location: Maine

Here's a graph from The Oil Drum that shows that oil may have peaked. December was actually lower than 85 million barrels per day. It could be that we are at peak.

http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/monthly_total_jan06.jpg

If we have peaked we'll be using Hirsh's mitigation plan. The plan for immediate peaking. I read the report and I think it involves rationing gasoline and making a lot of fuel from coal. It isn't going to be fun. I'm sure it's on somebody's desk in Washington right now. Some aide may have read it. That may even be the reason the Prez mentioned oil addiction. Basically it says that there would be only minimal pain if we planned 20 years before the peak, some pain with ten years planning and lots of pain if the plan was enacted at the peak.

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3026 Location: Maine

The amazing thing to me is how most people are still so oblivious to the whole situation. We went downhill skiing yesterday, for our once yearly day and had the smallest car in the parking lot. The Excursions and Suburbans dwarfed our tiny Echo. It costs a lot to do downhill skiing. Lunch cost at least 3 times what you would pay anywhere else. What a strange experience. Wonderful views of Mt. Washington. I suppose we have to enjoy these times, because they may be over very soon. What we take for granted today may seem like a strange dream in just a few years. I am back to working on our maple syrup tubing again today. That may help when things get dicey. It seems a lot more real.

Hirsh's report is well known now in the corridors of power. The only question is: What are they going to do with the information? Will they elect to continue their present lifestyle and impoverish us peasants, or will they decide to tighten their own belts and everyone has less? Which do you think they'll choose?

dub_scratch

Dreamtwister · Fission Joined: Feb 06, 2006 Posts: 2009

LadyRuby

Speaking of Hirsch, one thing to keep in mind is that this guy isn't just a flake that the DOE made a huge mistake in hiring. This is a guy who they hired for the mitigation report and who they have since hired onto another follow-up contract (see the end of the congressional testimony to see his DOE contract information). So he is still working for the DOE.

Hirsch seems to me like a guy of real integrity to me, and frankly I give the DOE credit for not muzzling him.

Here's some more Hirsch stuff (probably been posted before...):

Congressional Testimony on Peak Oil by Hirsch Dec 2005

Summary:

crapattack

I've heard Hirsh interviewed and he's a very careful and conservative person with a whole hell of a lot of credentials. He was appauled by the information he and his staff was accumulating when he was researching the report. When writing the report he says they consistently took the most conservative position possible and were still horrified by their conclusions.
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SoothSayer

I skimmed the report a while back ... but today I also read the Hirsch presentation to the US Govt in Dec 2005.

This is the fragment that startled me:

"It is by no means obvious how world oil peaking will occur, but if it follows the patterns displayed by these regions and countries, the world will have less than a year warning."

LESS THAN A YEAR WARNING???????

This sort of fast awareness - even if in reality it has no short term effects - could well cause a huge flurry of media attention and related economic disturbances and (unpleasant) government activity.

Until now I have assumed that the "doomers" with their food stockpiles etc were being very silly ... but now I am not so sure.

We may not in reality need to deal with the effects of Peak Oil for a decade or so ... but startled & worried populations could cause an unpleasant panic "spike" which could impact our day-to-day lives for a month or two.

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3026 Location: Maine

I don't know if we've peaked, but the price of oil doesn't want to stay in the $60 range anymore. It is over $67 today and it'll probably be testing the highs set last year soon, if it keeps going up. I think we are in the first year of oil prices hurting the middle class. We have instituted serious mitigation already in my household, but we'll have to do more to keep up with this run up in price. Why isn't everybody doing something now?

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3026 Location: Maine

Oil is over $67 today. Time to do some mitigation. We have started in our household. Here's what we have done:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/artlofving/Energysav/index.htm

UIUCstudent01 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 10, 2005 Posts: 894

pstarr · Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: Hirsch report is pretty weak

MonteQuest

lorenzo's "Hirsch report is totally bogus on biofuels" can be found in the Energy Forum.

MQ
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kokoda · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2006 Posts: 364

So we need 20 years to mitigate the problems that will be caused when oil peaks.

In other words if oil has already peaked ... we are screwed.

It occurs to me that there are a lot of potential solutions to the peak oil problem ... but there is a general lack of leadership from world governments when it comes to implementing these solutions.

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3026 Location: Maine

There are a lot of things that we could be doing. This country lacks the will to do them, however. How can you convince people to conserve when they don't even know what for? Most people haven't got a clue where this oil stuff comes from, or that it's even running low.

Imagine you are at an all you can eat buffet. The folks running the thing come out and tell you that you should take less so that those at the back of the line can have some. You've already paid. Are you going to conserve for them, or are you going to get your money's worth?

They aren't going to let on that there's anything the matter until they are safely away from the mess that will ensue when everybody finds out how little is left of the buffet. It would be nice if our local governments could do something, but as for our national government, fugeddaboudit!