Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: Don't worry. Hydrogen based fuel cells will be the answe
Quote:
The world won't end becuase of peak oil.....but the effects WILL end many lives.
I get the feeling that this is what will happen when peak oil happens.
The biggest inconvenience that people will have is they will have to upgrade their existing heaters in their homes to change from oil based heaters to natural gas, or some other type of furnace. People will also have to buy fuel cell based cars or air powered cars which will be increasingly more mainstream. Sort of like today's hybrid cars are gaining marketshare.
Electricity will still be there. The stock market will still exist. Life will be pretty much be as it always has been. Only better because we won't be using oil. And that is that.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:32 pm Post subject:
Hey "don't worry" answer these questions:
What if you are wrong and technology won't save us?
Do you think Peak Oil has/will occur within the next 10 years? _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
What if you are wrong and technology won't save us?
Do you think Peak Oil has/will occur within the next 10 years?
I think Peak Oil is real. I think within the next 10 years, it will happen. If there weren't such things as fuel cells or air cars, then yes, I'd be very worried. Let's face it, Oil is life. This world cannot run without Oil. Our economies depend on it. Our standard of living is built on Oil.
If all production of OIL stopped tomorrow, cold. Then yes, we'd have a MAJOR catastrophe on our hands. But it won't stop tomorrow. The oil will gradually increase in price until we literally cannot afford to use oil for our cars. Peak oil is not about the end of oil, but affordable oil.
The laws of supply and demand will kick in, and the demand for non-gasoline cars will cause the increase of the supply of alternatives such as fuel cell or air powered cars. And there will be alternatives.
I've read articles where turkey entrails are converted to oil. If the mass consumers stop using gas based cars, then we won't need millions of barrels of oil every day, only thousands. We can produce oil naturally and sufficiently for that amount.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:50 pm Post subject:
What sources of energy do you see us using to power our economy in the near future? Nuclear? Coal? Wind? Solar?
What are the costs involved to switch to a new energy source in terms of money, energy & materials?
I saw you mentioned Natural Gas. Do you realize North America will run short of Natural Gas here soon? Will LNG bail us out of that crisis? _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:56 pm Post subject:
Forgot to spell check that one. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
What sources of energy do you see us using to power our economy in the near future? Nuclear? Coal? Wind? Solar?
What are the costs involved to switch to a new energy source in terms of money, energy & materials?
I saw you mentioned Natural Gas. Do you realize North America will run short of Natural Gas here soon? Will LNG bail us out of that crisis?
All of the above.
We have tons of coal. We've yet to utilize solar or wind resources for energy. More Nuclear plants can be built. If France can get 80% of it's energy from Nuclear plants, why can't other countries?
And if we change our gas cars over to fuel cells or air power cars, our consumption of oil will plummet dramatically. Instead of billions of barrels, it will be hundreds of thousands which we can produce naturally.
Bottom line: We WILL have electricity. Oil is not our only means. Our cars may look and function differently but we will still have cars. We won't go back to horses as some here ridiculously claim.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 6:03 pm Post subject:
What are the costs involved to switch to a new energy source in terms of money, energy & materials? _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 6:05 pm Post subject:
Are you in the USA or in North America? _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Man, I wish I could have your faith "DontWorry." Faith in technology. Faith in multinational corporations. Faith in market economics. You seem to have an implicit trust that you will be taken care of; that the system really is capable of somewhat seamlessly moving from growth to sustainability.
Apparently, there is a massive udder hanging from the sky and us peak oilers just need to look up and drink freely. Everything is fine. Everything is dandy.
I mean here is a forum of enviromentalists, scientists, businessman, and I've gotta admit, just plain brilliant people (you want to see the lowest common denominator head over to the AOL forums) and your answer to Peak Oil is that there are smarter people somwhere out there (obviously not on these boards) that will take care of the problem for us.
You've gotta be a troll. Your posts are just too trite. Too comfortable. Too ignorant.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:34 pm Post subject:
dontworryaboutpeakoil wrote:
Bottom line: We WILL have electricity. Oil is not our only means. Our cars may look and function differently but we will still have cars. We won't go back to horses as some here ridiculously claim.
Oil and natural gas are the basis of our chemical industry. Shortages of either or both ripple through the supply chains of many industries before getting to the consumer. From the tires on your new fangled car to the vinyl in the seats, hydrocarbons were involved. $500/bl oil will put a huge damper on the these materials markets. Solar cells need 99.9% pure silicon which needs to be mined by, you guessed it, diesel powered machinery. I could go on and on. Electric power plants need to be fed constantly. That coal is brought in on diesel trains and trucks.
What we are worried about with Peak Oil is not gradualy running out of oil, it's the sudden drop off of old major producing wells like Ghawar. Sudden drop off is a problem with enhanced recovery, which is used all over the place these days. The shortages and price hikes produced by that will be astounding.
The response of the people and thier governments is what will determine the future. The they react in a perfectly logical, sensible manor, we'll have a lot of short term pain, but we'll come out with our society intact. However, most of us Peakoilers have a dimmer view of human nature. Thanks for the optimism, though.
Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 9:03 pm Post subject:
Well, I'm generally very optimistic about future (compared to this forum's average , but your "solutions" are probably far from reality.. Just idea of solar powered automotive transportation is crazy. Yes, satellites are powered by solar energy - in space, where sun always shines, and they have far far lower energy consumption than your car. Whole international space station that you can see at night shining brighter than Venus probably generates less energy than your gasoline car..
Energy recovered from oil is huge, it's big part of human availiable energy. Conventional renewables cannot fully compensate for it. Coal will burn as alive with even more accelerated global warming, and nuclear takes years to develop... Hopefully, we are going to have those years we need. Air powered cars cannot transport heavier cargo, and have very limited power, neat for intracity traveling which might be obsolete luxury soon, fuel cells are very inefficent technology, it's very costly and complicated to produce/build infrastructure and to produce/store/distribute hydrogen. Our infrastructure took century to develop, and switching to hydrgone would be far more complicated, so I doubt it will be massively used. And do not expect so huge progress, check progress of civilian air transportation over last decades.. how huge it is? Military is using fuel cells technology for decades and progress is minimal too.
I'm convinced that we will solve most problems and society and will continue, but "business as ever" scenario of transition where you just one day buy hydrogen car instead of gasoline car is very unlikely.. More likely is scenario where you have to use bike or direct electricity powered mass transit to get to work, electric rails to visit distant places and just watch with envy those few very rich individuals who have some neat gasoline or fuel-cell technology cars despite worldwide economic dpressions and are lucky enough to live near refilling station.
With regards to agriculture and oil:
The Green Revolution (mechanization, petrochemicals, GMO's) helped to boost food production immensely, and that was the work of scientists and corporations. It was also one of the biggest long-term mistakes humanity ever made. Any "new technology" in regards to food production would have to not only feed the extra 3-6 billion people who are going to be born in the next fifty years or so, but ALSO , post peak, make up for an increasing portion the lost food production that was first brought about by the green revolution. THAT is a tall order indeed, especially considering all the other porblems humanity faces in the 21st century.
Don'tworry, you also seem to be ignoring the fact that cheap oil subsidizes the energy and money costs of other energy sources (especially solar, and the energy "source" that is hydrogen), and that the US economy depends on the petrodollar.So after oil peaks, the effects on the US economy will be unpredictable, and most likely negative. If the US in particular gets seriously messed up by the surge in oil prices post peak, it may dent research into alternative energies quite badly. As Colin Campbell put it, we should be able to develope alternatives to oil IN TIME to avert a crises if we start making a serious effort 30 years ago.
Being an economist-in-training myself, I would like to say that I realize that scientists and engineers are not magicans or wizards, and that they can't just pull solutions out of their hats/arses on command. To say that technology will save us because it has in the past is a dangerous misinterpretation of history: technological advance, eg the Green Revolution, has in many cases been analogous to a situation in which a debtor (humanity) goes into even more debt in order to pay off his first debt and continue to live even furthur beyond their means (ie overshoot).
Honda FCX to Begin Tests in Cold Weather Operation
Apr. 8, 2004, New York — American Honda Motor Co., Inc. announced today that testing of the 2005 Honda FCX fuel cell vehicle, equipped with Honda's new fuel cell (FC) stack will test its ability to start in below freezing weather on public roads in California this April and New York state this coming fall.
The Honda Home Energy Station (HES) will supply hydrogen fuel for the California road tests. First introduced in 2003 as a hydrogen supply and cogeneration device, the HES generates hydrogen from natural gas for use in fuel cell vehicles while supplying electricity and heat for the home. By testing the HES in conjunction with the FCX, Honda is taking another step forward in its research designed to prepare for the advent of a hydrogen-fueled society.
With the adoption of a new structure and newly developed electrolyte membranes, the Honda FC Stack contains only half the components and is more efficient and durable than conventional fuel cell stacks. The Honda FC Stack was developed with the goal of fuel cell vehicle commercialization along with other environmental goals like recyclability and energy independence.
The Honda FC Stack-equipped FCX earned approval on September 24, 2003 from Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and has recently undergone sub-zero start-up and road testing in Hokkaido, Japan. The Honda FCX is the first fuel cell vehicle to be certified for regular commercial use by both the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB).
The new stack reduces the number of components by almost 50 percent (compared to earlier Honda prototype units) while more than doubling the output density, resulting in world-leading performance. Use of newly developed aromatic electrolyte membranes greatly improves durability and allows for power generation at temperatures ranging from -20ºC (-4ºF) to +95ºC (+203 ºF), a milestone achievement for stacks that employ conventional fluorine electrolyte membranes. Driving range and fuel economy have also been increased by more than 10 percent compared with the FCX currently in fleet use.
In December 2002, the city of Los Angeles took delivery of the first of five Honda FCX fuel cell vehicles, which city officials now use as part of their regular daily business commute. Additionally, the city of San Francisco has taken delivery of two more FCX's to use as part of their large fleet of alternative fuel vehicles. With an output of up to 107 horsepower and 201 foot-pounds of torque, the 2005 Honda FCX offers good performance capabilities. The FCX has a range of up to 180 miles and seating for four people, making it practical for a wide range of real-world applications.
Name FCX with Honda FC Stack
Number of occupants 4
Max. Speed 93mph
Motor Max. Output 80kW (107hp)
Max. Drive torque 272Nm (201 lb-ft)
Type AC synchronous electric motor (manufactured by Honda)
Fuel cell stack
(2 units) Type PEMFC
(Proton exchange membrane fuel cell)
(manufactured by Honda)
Output 86kW
Fuel Type Compressed Hydrogen
Storage High-pressure hydrogen tank (5000psi)
Capacity 156.6 liters
Dimensions (L x W x H, mm) 4165 x 1760 x 1645
Energy storage Ultra Capacitor (manufactured by Honda)
Vehicle range (Honda estimate based on EPA mode) More than 180 miles (real world)
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, but your "solutions" are probably far from reality.. Just idea of solar powered automotive transportation is crazy. Yes, satellites are powered by solar energy - in space, where sun always shines, and they have far far lower energy consumption than your car. Whole international space station that you can see at night shining brighter than Venus probably generates less energy than your gasoline car..
