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DesertBear2
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Aug 13, 2005
Posts: 603
Location: BlueRidgeVA
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 Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:13 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| Zardoz wrote: | | We're watching our net worth take a huge hit, but what's our option? If we try to sell cheap we'll have to buy something else, then sit and watch its value dissolve underneath us. |
Sell now and get a still great price.....and buy it (or a similar property) back in about 2-3 years time for 50% of present prices. Meanwhile you can rent and invest your house profits in TreasuryDirect short terms.
You will be a happy camper in 2-3 years when you are going cash shopping in a market rich with foreclosures and price reductions. |
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The_Toecutter
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 1707
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:21 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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All I want is a trailer or an RV in the middle of a swamp somewhere. Houses are overrated.
If the housing boom has ended, it could lead to a fairly bad recesion this year. Less likely but still a significant possibility is the threat of an economic depression from this. Our economy has been reliant on this housing boom for a few years, and now that it's bursting, the future is looking worse. It was inevitable, but I was hoping it would hold off for a while.
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The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson |
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linlithgowoil
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Dec 20, 2004
Posts: 890
Location: Scotland
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 4:00 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| collapse imminent? how? the only way housing starts to bust is if unemployment rises significantly. if employment stays stable, then all that happens is that house prices level off as people reach their limit of indebtedness and cant/wont pay anymore. you then get a bumpy plateau of house prices for a while. if this continues for a good number of years, there will likely be no crash. if unemployment rises early in this plateau when debts are still barely paid off ,then you'd see a crash. |
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MicroHydro
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 10, 2005
Posts: 1286
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 5:06 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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Just was informed that the rental house I am living in is going on the market.  The NZ housing market is on the verge of slumping, and all the investors who built houses on speculation are in a panic.
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"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel |
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Daculling
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2005
Posts: 1326
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 7:12 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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Since when was Metalica so concerned about the housing bubble?
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-Dac
Winners never quit and quiters never win, but those that never win and never quit are idiots. |
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Dukat_Reloaded
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 31, 2005
Posts: 1004
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 7:29 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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It is not metalica, I would not post that type of crap. In the information from the media player it says artist:Megadeth, Album:Countdown to Extinction, and song:Foreclosure Of A Dream. It's one of the best albums out there and has allways been one of my favorite albums for a very long time. Also the album was released in 1992, near the previous house price crash. It's amazing how quickly people forget. Megadeth are a fantastic bunch of people and you can hear what others say about them here. Link
Yes the lead singer did once play in metalica.
Sorry to get this thread off track but really Daculling, did you have to say the only thing that would infuriate me and cause a response? |
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dooberheim
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 07, 2005
Posts: 301
Location: Columbia, MO
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 9:13 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| Specop_007 wrote: | Hey, maybe my property taxes will go down!
Every cloud has a silver lining right?  |
Have YOUR property taxes ever gone down? I didn't think that ever happened...
DK
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Carpe Scrotum! |
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4404
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donshan
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Oct 12, 2005
Posts: 281
Location: Washington State, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:12 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| Zardoz wrote: | We live in a townhouse development about 2 kilometers from the ocean. We bought our place in 1991 for $310,000. Last fall an identical unit went for $745,000.
...skip
Word in the neighborhood is that every unit in the complex has lost at least $75,000 in value since last fall.
We're watching our net worth take a huge hit, but what's our option? If we try to sell cheap we'll have to buy something else, then sit and watch its value dissolve underneath us. |
My old fashioned reaction is just ignore the price fluctuations since you should have substantial positive equity in the house.
As a general comment ( not aimed at Zardoz specifically) I think people who look to housing as a way to make money by flipping houses are gambling and taking all the risks that gambling entails. They should expect the heartburn and worry that goes with the territory.
IMHO the objective of buying a house is to find housing suitable for needs and budget, pay at least 20% down, and make double principal payments with the objective of owning the property free and clear ASAP.
Owning a home with NO mortgage produces a wonderful atmosphere of freedom. Let the storms of housing bubbles, layoffs, and peak oil come. If you don't have to meet a mortgage payment you are FREE each month to decide yourself how to spend available income. You will have options when others have none.
Indebtedness is a form of slavery. In the maximum case where all income goes to pay debts people are no better than a roman slave where all work output goes to the master.
Yes your net worth goes down when the housing bubble bursts. But it wasn't "real money" in the first place- it was just a paper profit illusion were a very few win the game through swift timing, but the majority lose and see life and family values smashed.
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An expert is someone who has made every mistake possible in their field and learned how to prevent them. |
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strider3700
Fission
Joined: Apr 17, 2005
Posts: 2607
Location: Vancouver Island
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| linlithgowoil wrote: | | collapse imminent? how? the only way housing starts to bust is if unemployment rises significantly. if employment stays stable, then all that happens is that house prices level off as people reach their limit of indebtedness and cant/wont pay anymore. you then get a bumpy plateau of house prices for a while. if this continues for a good number of years, there will likely be no crash. if unemployment rises early in this plateau when debts are still barely paid off ,then you'd see a crash. |
I believe you're correct. The collapse will come from big jumps in unemployment. This is because at least around here the housing boom has put a lot of people to work. Once the new houses stop going up there is going to be a lot of people unemployed and most of them with huge new mortgages. Times are going to be tough.
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shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts |
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TommyJefferson
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 19, 2004
Posts: 1638
Location: Republic of Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:08 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| Eli wrote: | | Then Vj will be thrown out on his ass and he will join some Madras and then blow some crap up in America completing the circle. |
LOL!
That was a good summation.
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Conform . Consume . Obey . |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6149
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| Dukat_Reloaded wrote: | | ...infuriate me and cause a response? |
Mods, please fix this... |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6149
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| DesertBear2 wrote: | | ...Meanwhile you can rent and... |
| MicroHydro wrote: | | ...the rental house I am living in is going on the market.. |
Bingo. We'll just stay put, thank you. There's no easy solution. |
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Wahoo
Coal
Joined: Dec 30, 2005
Posts: 10
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| Dukat_Reloaded wrote: | | http://www.members.optusnet.com.au/~jrowl/Foreclosure%20of%20a%20Dream.mp3 |
Well, isn't that nice.
I'm sitting here at work, checking in on the peak oil board during a break in the day, and all of a sudden Slayer is blasting out of my office.
Convenient AND fun. Next time how's abouts you let us pick when we listen to music? Maybe, I don't know, post a link and say "click here if you wanna rock your ass off!". Or something else equally clever. Anything other than what you did would be better. |
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o2ny
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Apr 27, 2005
Posts: 240
Location: new york city wacko
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| Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent |
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| I'll gladly read your opinions, but *please* don't make me listen to your music. What is this MySpace? |
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