I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jun 04, 2004 Posts: 25 Location: Palatine, IL
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 8:47 pm Post subject: Paradigm shift: Crude oil to Hemp
Listen to Matt Savinar here on "Feet To The Fire" http://www.innersites.com/feet2fire/streams2/f2f-02may2004.ramscroll to about 1 hour 56 minutes and 40 seconds and he talks about an email exchange he had with a hemp activist regarding the hemp solution to peak oil.
The problem with a civilization based hemp is that we'll be having hemp wars instead of oil wars once hemp peaks due to population. However, this is how mankind has always settled population issues. I doubt that will change.
Unfortunately, whatever we do - whether it is store water, grow our own food or invest in precious metals, we face the possibility of government confiscation.
We have a choice between:
A. Do nothing. In this case, your chance of living is a big fat zero.
or
B. Prepare by acquiring skills/resources. In this case, the government may confiscate your resource, put you in prison, draft you, or just flat out put a bullet between your eyes.
The difference between A and B is this:
In scenario A, you have no chance of making it.
In scenario B, there is the possibility of making it and thus ultimately helping to rebuild whatever civilazation emerges after the one we currently live in.
Remember, replacing oil with hemp just replaces the problem of "Peak Oil" with the problem of "Peak Hemp" - which would happen very quickly as the US will not have enough arable land to feed its population by 2030.
As long as we have an economy that requires growth, it doesn't matter what the fuel source is - the economy will eventually require more growth than the energy source can provide for.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 102 Location: Cornwall, NY
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 9:41 pm Post subject:
It comes down to the fact that the sun doesn't send us enough energy to support 6 billion people, let alone a constantly growing population past that point. There's no source of energy more plentiful than the Sun, and now that the bank (energy reserves under the earth) is out of money, we have to rely solely on the energy that flies at us from the sun.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6943 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2004 9:42 am Post subject:
I suppose if I had beaucoup bucks, all the tools, land, stocks of materials and supplies likely to become scarce in the next 10-20 years; I would invest in PMs. However, since I don’t have all those things, I won’t be “Investing” in something that has little or no useful purpose, aside from filling a tooth.
If someone came to me sometime after the start of the Great Decline and offered to give me an ounce of gold for a pound of beans I would tell them I would rather have a brick of .22s or a handle for the axe I just busted, what can I do with an ounce of gold?
If you have satisfied yourself with your preparations and have cash left over, learn about diamonds. If you know what you are buying, you can get a huge dollar amount in a very small package and it will probably trade just as easily as PMs.
Just my 1/1250 oz worth. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
totally agree with pops on the dubious value of precious metals in the long run.
Id never accept a diamond either though since I have no way of telling whether its real or not. I might be persuaded into trading some food for a beautiful piece of jewelry for my wife, but not for its intrinsic value.
One way of looking at it is that there will be different kinds of people. Those who leave the cities and go out into the country to trade trinkets for food. Those who live in the country and trade food for the city folks trinkets. And those who live in the country, have their own food and trinkets, and mostly only trade for service (labor).
I'm in total agreement with Pops - the primary thing we should be investing in is skills and resources such as tools, seeds, weapons, etc. . .
However, let's say I put $1,000 into Silver. A year from now, that $1,000 has tripled in value for the reasons I talk about in the Silver article I wrote. I can then used that extra money to stockpile thyroid medication for my father. (He has to take it daily)
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6943 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2004 3:59 pm Post subject:
Matt, as one who has doubts about the average guy mixing with the sharks on the upswing, I wonder if the market isn't going to be more and more stacked against one with only limited time to devote to research during the possible coming transition. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
My thoughts exactly. Which is why my priority is skills/resources. Put it this way: if I came into 1/2 million bucks tomorrow, I'd buy some arable land, get my home on that land as "post-crash" ready as possible, buy as much food/water/supplies as I could store and spend my time acquiring post-crash skills.
If I had some left over, I'd put that towards silver, gold, nat. gas etc.. .
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 4:25 am Post subject:
Sacks of portland cement, stocks of copper plumbing pipe, pallets of plywood and sheetrock, sheets of plate glass, pallets of roofing shingles, spools of electrical and telecom wire, and numerous large boxes of nails and screws, along with hardware particularly hinges and suchlike, etc. etc. And of course the tools to use those materials efficiently.
One thing I happen to have in hand right now is a quantity of telephone switching equipment sufficient to provide 1980s-modern phone service to a village of up to about 200 houses. This should be able to get me into the sustainable rural development of my choice.
BTW, I do not subscribe to the apocalypse scenarios. Prudence and preparedness yes, paranoia no.
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