I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2730 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:52 am Post subject: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
Quote:
Gas-to-liquid (GTL) and coal-to-liquid (CTL) technologies are watched closely by oil companies, car makers and governments.
Sasol's Oryx GTL plant in Qatar opens in June with a capacity of 66 000 barrels/day (b/d). It will be the first commercial GTL plant and an important pointer to Sasol's future growth.
International consultancies such as Cambridge Energy Research expect GTL global production of 1m b/d by 2015. The potential market is huge. Japan, for instance, wants 20% of its fuel to come from GTL or other clean fuels by 2030. And US president George W Bush has named CTL as a supply alternative to crude oil from the Middle East.
financialmail _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Oct 01, 2004 Posts: 214 Location: Germany/Ohio
Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:40 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
Graeme wrote:
TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
1.) Peak Oil is a liquid fuels problem.
One of the big questions/problems presented by PO is that liquid fuels made out of liquid oil are very easy to deal with. That is why the world is looking for a new liquid fuel - GTL, CTL, Bio-Diesel, Ethanol, etc... All of these conversions are energy consumtive, regardless of HOW GOOD OUR TECHNOLOGY to make them IS.
2.) Peak Oil is an energy problem.
Natural Gas is peaking. Oil is peaking. Coal will peak someday, but offers somewhat of an alternative IF we are willing to face the ecological difficulties connected to its use/mining (ie strip mining). Uranium (earth-based) will peak shortly as well. But lets stick with the narrow definition of oil and gas production peaking. These two make up about 50% or more of our primary energy use. As soon as production of these two begin receding, WORLD ENERGY PRODUCTION WILL BEGIN RECEDING. GTL and CTL and Hydrogen Economy and fuel cells and, and, and, and...
will not help this problem the tiniest bit. Instead, they will compete with existing consumers of energy, MAGNIFYING THE PROBLEM.
Technology will have to help save us. But I have not yet seen which one could help us the littlest in this salvation. _________________ This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:15 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
Peak_Plus wrote:
Graeme wrote:
TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
1.) Peak Oil is a liquid fuels problem.
One of the big questions/problems presented by PO is that liquid fuels made out of liquid oil are very easy to deal with. That is why the world is looking for a new liquid fuel - GTL, CTL, Bio-Diesel, Ethanol, etc... All of these conversions are energy consumtive, regardless of HOW GOOD OUR TECHNOLOGY to make them IS.
The conversion of crude oil to retail products like gasoline and diesel is also energy consumptive. In fact, petroleum refining is the most energy intensive industry in the U.S. _________________ Think outside the petri dish.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:28 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
JohnDenver wrote:
The conversion of crude oil to retail products like gasoline and diesel is also energy consumptive. In fact, petroleum refining is the most energy intensive industry in the U.S.
And we've had plenty of cheap energy to do it with. Petroleum refining willno doubt become much more expensive as petroleum becomes more expensive.
Everything will be more expensive. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2068 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:56 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
Quote:
The conversion of crude oil to retail products like gasoline and diesel is also energy consumptive. In fact, petroleum refining is the most energy intensive industry in the U.S.
That is great that you point that out. After the entire process is completed (Conventional oil production --->Refinery --->Fuel for economic activity) it is still very energy positive (EROEI). Conventional oil, when it is abundant, can't be beat! _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Oct 01, 2004 Posts: 214 Location: Germany/Ohio
Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:29 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
JohnDenver wrote:
Peak_Plus wrote:
Graeme wrote:
TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
1.) Peak Oil is a liquid fuels problem.
One of the big questions/problems presented by PO is that liquid fuels made out of liquid oil are very easy to deal with. That is why the world is looking for a new liquid fuel - GTL, CTL, Bio-Diesel, Ethanol, etc... All of these conversions are energy consumtive, regardless of HOW GOOD OUR TECHNOLOGY to make them IS.
The conversion of crude oil to retail products like gasoline and diesel is also energy consumptive. In fact, petroleum refining is the most energy intensive industry in the U.S.
Thanks, John, you changed my view on everything.
Of course it takes energy!
Yes refining is oil-consumtive.
Yes, refining is oil consumtive,
Yes, refining oil is energy consumptive
Yes, refining oil is energy consumptive
Ok, I think I've got it right now. _________________ This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:37 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
jato wrote:
Quote:
The conversion of crude oil to retail products like gasoline and diesel is also energy consumptive. In fact, petroleum refining is the most energy intensive industry in the U.S.
That is great that you point that out. After the entire process is completed (Conventional oil production --->Refinery --->Fuel for economic activity) it is still very energy positive (EROEI). Conventional oil, when it is abundant, can't be beat!
Have you wondered about the EROEI of the compound process?
It should be fairly easy to figure out ...
1) Barrel of oil is distilled to 0.95 barrels of (kerosene+gasoline+diesel+etc)
2) The distillation of each barrel oil of oil, requires the equivalent of 0.1 barrel to be provided (in the form of electricity).
Do the numbers, you will be surprised about the ROI of the compound process _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
Joined: Apr 06, 2004 Posts: 257 Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:57 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
Quote:
Do the numbers, you will be surprised about the ROI of the compound process
Not only that, many ways of comparing energy sources is seriously flawed. Every peak oil nut should start reading Herman Scheer, he will seriously change your views on energy. Read more on Scheer
Scheer tackles energy by comparing supply chains, and proves that renewables can be economically superior to fossil fuels. For instance, the cited energy efficiency of coal fired power stations is around 30-40%, however, once the entire supply chain is figured they are shown to be usually only around 10% efficient. There are around 11 links in the coal to electricity supply chain.
It is not the world that is looking for a new liquid fuel, it is the entrenched energy companies and their vested interests that are looking for a new liquid fuel.
The argument that "Conventional oil, when it is abundant, can't be beat!" is wrong and dangerous because we all now know that the utilisation of conventional oil and other fossil fuels is destroying our environment (& potentially the biosphere) and has created a retarded global economy that is disruptive/corruptive at best and the cause of war and destruction at worst.
This same argument is being used to further the interests of the oil companies and the continued destruction of the environment in the form of unconventional oil and other technologies. _________________ Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley
Joined: Oct 01, 2004 Posts: 214 Location: Germany/Ohio
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:23 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
rowante wrote:
Quote:
Do the numbers, you will be surprised about the ROI of the compound process
Not only that, many ways of comparing energy sources is seriously flawed. Every peak oil nut should start reading Herman Scheer, he will seriously change your views on energy.
Well...
Ok. I read Scheer. His 13-paged pdf was about as eye opening as a wet dream:oops:
He makes two point.
1) fossile fuels are over-rated.
2) we don't need to change from fossil fuels to renewables but away from fossil-fuel systems.
Ok: The world keeps repeating in thousands of ways that fossil fuels are overrated. The German government (as well as others) are paying billions in subsidies to support some of the efforts that Sheer promotes.
So why are renewables doing such a poor job at replacing coal power plants that take a decade to build?
Many here stress that PO is a liquid fuels problem. Scheer almost only talks about electricity. What about transportation? (Reintroduce the electric street-car? How many more windmills will be needed for that?) What are we going to fly on? Where are our plastics going to come from? How are we going to make solar houses that he's talking about without the oil to do it with?
Who knows, he may be right. But I'm affraid I found no answers, only assertions. A good polititian it seems. _________________ This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 8:23 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
I don't have answers, only suggestions.
Peak_Plus wrote:
What about transportation? (Reintroduce the electric street-car? How many more windmills will be needed for that?)
Obviously, the number of cars will have to be greatly reduced. Use bikes whenever possible. Electric streetcars are a good idea. As for the electricity to power them, a mix of renewables and nuclear.
Peak_Plus wrote:
What are we going to fly on?
Dirigibles.
Peak_Plus wrote:
Where are our plastics going to come from?
Plants.
Peak_Plus wrote:
How are we going to make solar houses that he's talking about without the oil to do it with?
People made houses long before oil was around. I don't see a problem here.
Joined: Oct 01, 2004 Posts: 214 Location: Germany/Ohio
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:26 am Post subject: Re: TECHNOLOGY IS THE MAIN THING HERE
Doly wrote:
People made houses long before oil was around. I don't see a problem here.
Hi Doly,
I'm sure there are answers to the above questions. What I'm saying is that Scheer is not offering the best solution since sliced bread. He claims renewables offer more EROEI than fossil fuels. Maybe he's right and it will only take a year or two of peaking for the wonderful alternatives to come out of the closet...
I'm commenting on how he's supposed "open our eyes" (quote rowante). Have you read Scheer? The first thing that bothered me was his historical inacuracy. But that's beside the point.
He sticks mostly to electricity. His renewables (four million windmills) could replace the present nuclear/coal electric superstructure. This does not, however, face the issue of PO. That's why I posed the "questions" you answered. His solutions will not help the PO dilema much.
He's from Germany. Where are you from? Have you ever seen the hoards of bikes in Germany? Bikes are a great answer. So are the electric trains that take me to work every day. So is the styrofoam (or fiber glass or stone fiber) insulation on my roof and walls and the solar panels that I'll be putting on my roof this summer and the three-paned windows. I'll be spending 55,000EUR all told to save about 800EUR a year (present prices - and increase the value of my house, of course) with a little help from the government.
I think the average POer understands the difficulties somewhat better than he does. Alternative energies will give us one small answer to about one thousand problems that will face us - like replacing my oil-based insulation measures with ... what? (no answers please!)
I love technology! I would love to develop my own alternative energy devices! I ride my bike to the train! I sold my car, despite my wife and kids! And I think there is going to be a good deal of difficulties about ten year into peak, no matter what course we take. In thirty years or so it will matter which course we took...
btw, the houses which he is talking about are passive houses - houses that do not need an external source (bought) for heat. Meaning - tear down 40 million domiciles in Germany alone and build new. Would be great for the economy! _________________ This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
